LCMC AGS WEEKLY NEWSLETTER | July 14, 2022

No45 - Wheat

Dear , Please find below the link to our latest report, this week on Wheat. Key points: - The Collatz conjecture – named after mathematician Lothar Collatz in the 1930s and also known as the 3n + 1 conjecture – remains one of the most famous unsolved problems in mathematics. Despite its apparent simplicity in formulation, it continues to fascinate many mathematicians around the planet – including Terence Tao, Fields Medal winner in 2006. To illustrate the conjecture, pick a positive number. If t.....

LCMC AGS WEEKLY NEWSLETTER | July 05, 2022

No44 - Macro-Corn

Dear , Please find below the link to our latest report, this week on Macro/Corn. Key points: - Scientific research tends to suggest that the impact from the Covid-19 pandemic on human psyche has led to more distortions in group thinking and mass behaviour following an increase in anxiety, trauma and stressor-related disorders. Preliminary research* from Harvard Medical School and Massachusetts General Hospital showed that even in the case of uninfected individuals, social restrictions during the.....

LCMC AGS WEEKLY NEWSLETTER | June 24, 2022

No43 - Wheat

Dear , Please find below the link to our latest report, this week on Wheat / Long-Term Perspective. Key points: - In The Affect Heuristic (2002), P. Slovic et al. explain that people ascertain what they think by referring to their feelings. “Affect means the specific quality of ‘goodness’ or ‘badness’ experienced as a feeling state and demarcating a positive or negative quality of a stimulus. Affective responses occur rapidly and automatically – note how quickly you sense the feelings associated.....

LCMC AGS WEEKLY NEWSLETTER | June 09, 2022

No42 Wheat - Russia

Dear , Please find below the link to our latest report, this week on Wheat / Russia. Key points: - During a recent visit of the world stamp exhibition in Lugano, several thoughts emerged after the viewing of an incredible work of historical research by G. Armando about the Crimean War (1853-1856).  As written by the philatelist, “the use of postal history artifacts such as envelopes and letters of the era provide unique insights to many of the deeper themes”. While reading those letters from a l.....

LCMC AGS WEEKLY NEWSLETTER | May 31, 2022

No41 - Soybeans

Dear , Please find below the link to our latest report, this week on Soybeans. Key points: - In its May WASDE report, the USDA pegged the 2021-22 soybean crop in Brazil at 125 million MT compared with Conab at 123.8 million MT. The Brazilian agency increased its crop estimate by 1.4 million MT from the prior month on the back of improved yields in Mato Grosso and Rio Grande do Sul, respectively at 3.66 and 1.53 MT per hectare. As a reminder: the country’s soybean production is down from a prior .....

LCMC AGS WEEKLY NEWSLETTER | May 23, 2022

No 40 - Wheat - 23rd May 2022

Dear , Please find below the link to our latest report, this week on Wheat. Key points: - There are many sorts of complex systems in the world involving technological innovation and/or people – such as economic and political systems. Despite being thought as stable and self-correcting when needed, these systems can become volatile and random at times – forcing their complete revamp in order to avoid an otherwise certain collapse. The story of the opening day of the Millennium footbridge’s over t.....

LCMC AGS WEEKLY NEWSLETTER | May 15, 2022

No39 : adding sources

Dear , We wanted to add sources for Graph 1 : E. Quigley - Harmonic Timing Sorry for the inconvenience. Mehdi Chaouky / Erel-Antoine Goren Speak soon. Erel-Antoine Goren +33 (0)1 78 95 92 33 icechat: eagoren1

LCMC AGS WEEKLY NEWSLETTER | May 13, 2022

No39 13th May22 - Macro Grains

Dear , Please find below the link to our latest report, this week on Macro Grains. Key points: - According to D. Kahneman, P. Slovic and A. Tversky in Judgment and Uncertainty, most people tend to make predictions by selecting the outcome that is most representative of the input. “The confidence they have in their prediction depends primarily on the degree of representativeness (that is, on the quality of the match between the selected outcome and the input) with little or no regard for the fact.....

LCMC AGS WEEKLY NEWSLETTER | May 02, 2022

No38 - Corn - 2nd May22

Dear , Please find below the link to our latest report, this week on Corn. Key points: - In Heuristics and Biases in Military Decision Making, Major Blair S. Williams discusses, among other concepts, the human tendency to misjudge probability and equilibrium sequence. Using the example of roulette at a casino, he writes: “the following three sequences of red and black could occur: RBRBRB or RRRBBB or RBBBBB. Which sequence is more likely? The answer is that all of these sequences are equally lik.....

LCMC AGS WEEKLY NEWSLETTER | April 19, 2022

No37 - Corn - 19th Apr22

Dear , Please find below the link to our latest report, this week on Corn. Key points: - In his book The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver argues that in the “science of prediction”, finding patterns is easy in any kind of data-rich environment. However, it is a subtle task to determine whether the patterns represent noise or signal. In that attempt, the author relates to Thomas Bayes – an English Presbyterian minister, philosopher and statistician born in 1702 – and his work on the theory of pr.....