DOE CRUDE STATS
| October 20, 2010
Is PADD 2 legit?
DOE CRUDE STATS Is PADD 2 legit? Already benefiting from a weaker dollar and rallying equities today, WTI gained an instant boost from the big -1m bbl decline of Cushing inventories as part of a broader -3.5m bbl draw in PADD II. The region’s draw is a bit curious as PADD II imports increased 60 kb/d while runs fell 13 kb/d, implying that the pull on crude inventories should be ~0.5m bbl less than last week, when storage grew by 1.3m bbl. That means that crude supply had to other.....
DOE CRUDE STATS
| October 14, 2010
No big surprises
DOE CRUDE STATS No big surprises Apparent principal product demand (product supplied) fell 280 kb/d on the week to 14.3 mb/d, primarily due to a -180 kb/d drop in apparent gasoline demand. 4wk average apparent gasoline demand is running 100 kb/d below year-ago levels, though for the remainder of the year we expect gasoline consumption to run slightly ahead of last year’s depressed levels. Despite generally weak gasoline demand, lower runs have curtailed product output, dragging gasoline .....
DOE CRUDE STATS
| October 06, 2010
Maintenance season in full swing
DOE CRUDE STATS Maintenance season in full swing Total US apparent demand (product supplied) fell -1.26 mb/d w-o-w, including a -0.39 mb/d drop in apparent principal product demand and a -0.64 mb/d drop in other oils. As we mentioned last week, the sudden jump in apparent gasoline demand was likely little more than a head fake; apparent demand indeed fell -0.39 mb/d this week to 8.99 mb/d (-0.28 mb/d yoy and flat on a 4wk average basis). The transient late-September jump this year (and.....
DOE CRUDE STATS
| September 29, 2010
Suspicious Minds
DOE CRUDE STATS Suspicious minds Taken at face value, this week’s stats are the most supportive that we’ve seen in some time, but the veracity of some of the key numbers seems quite dubious. US apparent demand (product supplied) jumped 530 kb/d w-o-w, on the back of a suspicious 540 kb/d increase of apparent mogas demand and a 210 kb/d increase in apparent distillate demand. Meanwhile, the reported 3.5m bbl gasoline inventory withdrawal slashed a chunk out of the yoy surplus, but likely .....
DOE CRUDE STATS
| September 22, 2010
Gasoline weakness continues
DOE CRUDE STATS Gasoline weakness continues The impact of Enbridge’s pipeline troubles appears more muted than much of the market had anticipated and apparent demand estimates are looking particularly weak (especially for gasoline). Apparent gasoline demand has continued to crumble into the shoulder season, falling another -170 kb/d, the lowest reading since last winter. Both on a weekly basis and the four-week average, apparent gasoline demand is no higher than it was at this time in 20.....
DOE CRUDE STATS
| September 15, 2010
My name is Earl
DOE CRUDE STATS My name is Earl Gasoline inventories may have declined for the fourth straight week, but it hasn’t exactly been due to strong demand. During that time, inventories have fallen just -1.1m bbl and remain at a record high for this time of year. But this week’s draw has far more to do with supply-side; between domestic refinery output and gasoline imports, supply dropped -759 kb/d, with hurricane Earl likely wielding an impact along the East Coast. Lower gasoline imports into.....
DOE CRUDE STATS
| September 09, 2010
Not with a Bang...
DOE CRUDE STATS Not with a bang… The curtain is drawing to on the weak 2010 gasoline season, with apparent mogas demand down -120 kb/d last week to 9.26 mb/d ahead of the Labor Day holiday. Meanwhile, refiners haven’t been able to resist pushing gasoline into the market. Apparent distillate demand held steady at 3.93 mb/d. Principal product demand did increase by 150 kb/d during the week,but primarily due to a 290 kb/d increase in apparent resid and jet/kero demand. Major data points: .....
DOE CRUDE STATS
| September 01, 2010
An Early Distillate Draw
An early distillate draw US principal product apparent demand increased 0.26 mb/d on the week, primarily due to a 0.3 mb/d increase in apparent distillate demand. The erratic readings in apparent distillate demand this summer have been primarily due to fluctuations in exports throughout the season, rising above the EIA’s embedded export number, falling well below, and now likely rebounding. Nonetheless, it is clear that distillate has been the primary source of demand growth over last year’s a.....
DOE CRUDE STATS
| August 25, 2010
Yield To Pressure (including chart package)
Please find attached our analysis of this week’s DOE petroleum statistics. The prior version did not include the PDF file of detailed statistics and charts. We apologize for any inconvenience.
DOE CRUDE STATS
| August 25, 2010
Yield To Pressure
Yield to pressure Not much changed in the EIA’s estimates of this week’s principal product demand (though other oils demand dropped 320 kb/d) as the inventories statistics were bearish virtually across the board. The lone bright spot for market bulls was that Cushing crude inventories declined despite higher PADD II imports. Total gasoline inventories sit at a record high for this time of year and, amazingly, are at the same level as in mid-March while high yields are keeping gasoline produc.....