GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| July 14, 2020
July 2020
The table below shows implied stock change for 3Q 2020 – 4Q 2021: Highlights from the IEA’s July 2020 Oil Market Report (OMR) With newly emerging data, the IEA continues to see improvements over “Black April” when global oil demand plunge by as large as -21.6 mb/d. Following a large upward revision of +2.1 mb/d in the June OMR, oil demand in 2Q20 was lifted again in this month’s report by +1.5 mb/d to an average of 82.9 mb/d, reflecting stronger-than-expected rebounds in May and June. Further im.....
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| June 17, 2020
June 2020
The table below shows implied stock change for 2Q 2020 – 4Q 2021: * Assuming OPEC production to average 25.95 mb/d in 2Q20, 23.82 mb/d in 3Q20, 24.23 mb/d in 4Q20 and 25.44 mb/d for Cal21. Highlights from the IEA’s June 2020 Oil Market Report (OMR) In this month’s OMR, the IEA published its 2021 outlook for the first time, expecting continuous improvements in the oil market with a strong demand recovery and a moderate supply growth. Meanwhile, the IEA warned that “enormous uncertainties” remain .....
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| May 15, 2020
May 2020
The table below shows implied stock change for 2Q 2020 – 4Q 2021: * assuming OPEC production to average 25.87 mb/d in 2Q20, 24.53 mb/d in 2H20, and 25.74 mb/d in 2021. Highlights from the IEA’s May 2020 Oil Market Report (OMR) Global oil demand in 2Q20 was adjusted significantly higher by +3.23 mb/d (OECD -3.54 mb/d), driven by “better than expected mobility in OECD countries and the gradual easing of lockdown measures”. Total oil consumption for the year was lifted by +0.69 mb/d to 91.23 mb/d, .....
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| April 17, 2020
April 2020
Ecuador has officially withdrawn from the OPEC member from January 1, 2020, according to a press release following the conclusion of OPEC’s 178th meeting on March 5. OPEC shifted Ecuador’s oil supply from OPEC to non-OPEC balances in the March MOMR. The IEA and EIA adjusted accordingly starting with their April publications. The table below shows implied stock change for 2Q 2020 – 4Q 2021: *For IEA and OPEC: assuming OPEC production to average 25.87 mb/d in 2Q20, 24.53 mb/d in 2H20. For EIA: i.....
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| March 12, 2020
March 2020
Ecuador has officially withdrawn from the OPEC member from January 1, 2020, according to a press release following the conclusion of OPEC’s 178th meeting on March 5. OPEC shifted Ecuador’s oil supply from OPEC to non-OPEC balances in the March MOMR. The IEA and EIA will adjust accordingly starting with their April publications. The table below shows implied stock change for CY2020-2021: *Assuming OPEC production to average 28.55 mb/d in 1Q20, 29.74 mb/d in 2Q20 and 30.78 mb/d for the rest of f.....
SPECIAL REPORT
| March 02, 2020
Insights From The Front Lines of Combating the Coronavirus
Dear , Over the weekend, total lives lost to Covid-19 has passed the 3,000 mark, the U.S. confirmed two deaths from the Coronavirus, and the first case in New York – a Manhattan woman in her 30s – was confirmed . A Dutch hospital was closed to new patients, with existing patients put under a quarantine. Conferences (including CERAWeek ) have been canceled, and staff forced Louvre closure over infection fears. Since mid-January, we have been following epidemiologists to identify leading pro.....
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| February 13, 2020
February 2020
The table below shows implied stock change for CY2020-2021: Note: Projected OPEC production includes Ecuador’s oil supply for the 2020-2021 period. Ecuador was due to leave OPEC on January 1, 2020 and its Ministry of Energy and Non-Renewable Natural Resources confirmed the country’s departure on January 2. However, as of today, Ecuador is still listed as a member country on OPEC’s official website. According to a Platts article , Ecuador and OPEC “have been discussing a potential return”. Goi.....
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| January 16, 2020
January 2020
The table below shows implied stock change for CY2020-2021: Note: Projected OPEC production includes Ecuador’s oil supply for the 2020-2021 period. Ecuador was due to leave OPEC on January 1, 2020 and its Ministry of Energy and Non-Renewable Natural Resources confirmed the country’s departure on January 2. However, as of today, Ecuador is still listed as a member country on OPEC’s official website. According to a Platts article , Ecuador and OPEC “have been discussing a potential return”. Goi.....
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| December 12, 2019
December 2019
The table below shows implied stock change for 4Q2019 and Y2020: Highlights from the IEA’s December 2019 Oil Market Report (OMR) In the latest OMR, the IEA revised global oil demand marginally lower, down by -0.02 mb/d for 2019 and -0.05 mb/d for 2020, mainly owing to lower-than-expected consumption in OECD Americas & Europe (-0.04 mb/d for 2019; -0.08 mb/d for 2020), FSU and Africa. Those revisions were partially offset by stronger Chinese (+0.05 mb/d for 2019; +0.08 mb/d for 2020) and Saudi Ar.....
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| November 15, 2019
November 2019
The table below shows implied stock change for 4Q2019 and Y2020: Highlights from the IEA’s November 2019 Oil Market Report (OMR) In the latest OMR, the IEA incorporated IMF October World Economic Outlook which lowered world GDP growth estimates down by -0.2ppt to 3.0% for 2019 and -0.1ppt to 3.4% for 2020 from the July publication. The IEA’s model shows that current US/China tariffs, if carried into 2020, could dampen global oil demand by nearly 400 kb/d compared to the “no-tariff” scenario. Sin.....