GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| December 15, 2020
December 2020
The table below shows implied stock changes for 4Q 2020 – 4Q 2021: Highlights from the IEA’s December 2020 Oil Market Report (OMR) Following significant downward revisions posted last month, global oil demand in 2020 was lowered even further by -0.05 in the latest OMR, with a heavy burden of -0.17 mb/d in 2H, driven by worse-than-expected impact caused by the resurgence of Covid-19 cases in the US, Europe and Russia. Following a YoY decline of -8.82 mb/d in 2020, world oil demand is expected to .....
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| November 13, 2020
November 2020
The table below shows implied stock changes for 4Q 2020 – 4Q 2021: Highlights from the IEA’s November 2020 Oil Market Report (OMR) Similar to OPEC and EIA, the IEA revealed a bearish near-term outlook, owing to new measures taken for combating the resurgence of the Covid-19 cases in the OECD countries. However, the Agency believes the impacts on oil demand would be less severe than they were earlier this year. For example, oil demand in OECD Europe is projected to be -2.1 mb/d lower YoY in Novem.....
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| October 14, 2020
October 2020
The table below shows implied stock changes for 4Q 2020 – 4Q 2021: Highlights from the IEA’s October 2020 Oil Market Report (OMR) IEA’s oil balances were largely unchanged despite some regional adjustments. Global oil consumption will decrease by -8.4 mb/d YoY to 91.7 mb/d in 2020 before recovering by +5.5 mb/d next year, with non-OPEC supply growing by only +0.4 mb/d in 2021. If OPEC+ complies, the IEA sees oil inventories to fall by -2.3 mb/d in 3Q20 and -4.1 mb/d in 4Q20 following large build.....
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| September 16, 2020
September 2020
The table below shows implied stock changes for 3Q 2020 – 4Q 2021: Highlights from the IEA’s September 2020 Oil Market Report (OMR) The IEA warned in the latest OMR that “sentiment is weakening” and “the outlook appears even more fragile”, lowering its global oil demand estimates for the second consecutive month. Driven by lower-than-expected consumption in the US and Malaysia, oil demand in 2Q was revised down by -0.17 mb/d to 83.04 mb/d. Following rapid recoveries in May (+4.5 mb/d MoM) and Ju.....
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| August 13, 2020
August 2020
The table below shows implied stock changes for 3Q 2020 – 4Q 2021: Highlights from the IEA’s August 2020 Oil Market Report (OMR) The number of Covid-19 infections continues to grow, recently setting a new high of ~280,000 daily cases globally. Many governments extended or re-implemented containment measures to combat the spread of the virus. The economic impact caused by the second round of restrictions may not be as severe as the ones observed in 1H20, but those actions continue to weigh on the.....
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| July 14, 2020
July 2020
The table below shows implied stock change for 3Q 2020 – 4Q 2021: Highlights from the IEA’s July 2020 Oil Market Report (OMR) With newly emerging data, the IEA continues to see improvements over “Black April” when global oil demand plunge by as large as -21.6 mb/d. Following a large upward revision of +2.1 mb/d in the June OMR, oil demand in 2Q20 was lifted again in this month’s report by +1.5 mb/d to an average of 82.9 mb/d, reflecting stronger-than-expected rebounds in May and June. Further im.....
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| June 17, 2020
June 2020
The table below shows implied stock change for 2Q 2020 – 4Q 2021: * Assuming OPEC production to average 25.95 mb/d in 2Q20, 23.82 mb/d in 3Q20, 24.23 mb/d in 4Q20 and 25.44 mb/d for Cal21. Highlights from the IEA’s June 2020 Oil Market Report (OMR) In this month’s OMR, the IEA published its 2021 outlook for the first time, expecting continuous improvements in the oil market with a strong demand recovery and a moderate supply growth. Meanwhile, the IEA warned that “enormous uncertainties” remain .....
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| May 15, 2020
May 2020
The table below shows implied stock change for 2Q 2020 – 4Q 2021: * assuming OPEC production to average 25.87 mb/d in 2Q20, 24.53 mb/d in 2H20, and 25.74 mb/d in 2021. Highlights from the IEA’s May 2020 Oil Market Report (OMR) Global oil demand in 2Q20 was adjusted significantly higher by +3.23 mb/d (OECD -3.54 mb/d), driven by “better than expected mobility in OECD countries and the gradual easing of lockdown measures”. Total oil consumption for the year was lifted by +0.69 mb/d to 91.23 mb/d, .....
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| April 17, 2020
April 2020
Ecuador has officially withdrawn from the OPEC member from January 1, 2020, according to a press release following the conclusion of OPEC’s 178th meeting on March 5. OPEC shifted Ecuador’s oil supply from OPEC to non-OPEC balances in the March MOMR. The IEA and EIA adjusted accordingly starting with their April publications. The table below shows implied stock change for 2Q 2020 – 4Q 2021: *For IEA and OPEC: assuming OPEC production to average 25.87 mb/d in 2Q20, 24.53 mb/d in 2H20. For EIA: i.....
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| March 12, 2020
March 2020
Ecuador has officially withdrawn from the OPEC member from January 1, 2020, according to a press release following the conclusion of OPEC’s 178th meeting on March 5. OPEC shifted Ecuador’s oil supply from OPEC to non-OPEC balances in the March MOMR. The IEA and EIA will adjust accordingly starting with their April publications. The table below shows implied stock change for CY2020-2021: *Assuming OPEC production to average 28.55 mb/d in 1Q20, 29.74 mb/d in 2Q20 and 30.78 mb/d for the rest of f.....