GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | August 18, 2021

August 2021

The table below shows IEA, OPEC and EIA’s implied stock changes for 3Q21-4Q22 based on our OPEC or OPEC+ crude output assumptions:: Please find below the link to this month's Global Oil Recap and Balances Report , which provides summaries for the latest monthly oil reports published by the IEA, OPEC and the EIA.


SPECIAL REPORT | July 28, 2021

On COVID: The Delta Variant and Children

Earlier today an article titled “How the Delta Variant Could Slow the Economic Recovery” appeared on The New York Times’ main website. [1] The article concludes that “there is no reason to expect a repeat of the huge disruption of 2020. But in terms of the recovery, this may amount to throwing sand in the gears.” We believe that the NYT analysis makes an extremely critical intrinsic assumption: the delta (or a later) variant will have a similar impact on each subgroup of the society as the orig.....


GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | July 16, 2021

July 2021

The table below shows IEA, OPEC and EIA’s implied stock changes for 3Q21-4Q22 based on our OPEC or OPEC+ crude output assumptions:: Please find below the link to this month's Global Oil Recap and Balances Report , which provides summaries for the latest monthly oil reports published by the IEA, OPEC and the EIA.


DATA INSIGHT | June 25, 2021

Haynesville: The Private Playbook

Last month, our coverage of US midstream operators’ earnings calls outlined an upside to production volumes through the summer across several US producing basins. We saw this as primarily being driven by private producers, who were poised to take advantage of a win-win scenario: grow production to capture favorable commodity pricing or entice a buyer to consolidate assets in key producing regions. With this in mind, we turned our attention to the Haynesville, which is home to some of the largest.....


GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | June 11, 2021

June 2021

The table below shows implied stock changes for 2Q21-4Q22: Please find below the link to this month's Global Oil Recap and Balances Report , which provides summaries for the latest monthly oil reports published by the IEA, OPEC and the EIA.


GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | May 17, 2021

May 2021

The table below shows implied stock changes for 2Q21-4Q22: Please find below the link to this month's Global Oil Recap and Balances Report , which provides summaries for the latest monthly oil reports published by the IEA, OPEC and the EIA.


DATA INSIGHT | April 23, 2021

Guaranteed Upside to the EIA's NG Production Estimates

A key assumption in the EIA’s current modeling of marketed production uses historical data from 2019 to set flaring rates. When these rates are carried forward, dry production, especially for associated gas plays, is underestimated in 2020 and 2021. In this paper, we walk our readers through the process using the Bakken as a case study and quantify the region's potential error at ~250 mmcf/d.


GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | April 14, 2021

April 2021

The table below shows implied stock changes for 2Q21 and 4Q22: Highlights from the IEA’s April 2021 Oil Market Report (OMR) Global oil demand was revised down slightly by -0.03 mb/d for 2020, mainly driven by downward revisions to Chinese demand in 1Q-3Q 2020. The IEA highlighted that it has cut Chinese gasoline yield, resulting in lower gasoline demand. Global oil demand was lifted by +0.2 mb/d for 2021 to 96.7 mb/d, up by +5.7 mb/d Y/Y, mostly due to the higher-than-expected US (+0.18 mb/d) an.....


GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | March 17, 2021

March 2021

The table below shows implied stock changes for CY 2021 and 2022: Highlights from the IEA’s March 2021 Oil Market Report (OMR) This month, the IEA released a shorter version of OMR as it focused on preparing and publishing its annual market report – Oil 2021 . In its commentary section, the IEA highlighted that it does not see “a new super-cycle and a looming supply shortfall” for the following reasons: 1) high inventory levels. OECD industry stocks were at 3,023 mbbls by the end of January, 11.....


GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | February 11, 2021

February 2021

The table below shows implied stock changes for CY 2021 and 2022: Highlights from the IEA’s January 2021 Oil Market Report (OMR) The IEA revised down 2019 demand baseline by -0.33 mb/d, reflecting newly incorporated non-OECD data, including China, India, Indonesia and Thailand. As a result, 2019 demand fell below the 100 mb/d mark to 99.7 mb/d with Y/Y growth averaging +0.39 mb/d. Following a sharp decline of -8.69 mb/d in 2020 (two-thirds in the OECD), oil demand is expected to recover by ~62% .....