GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | March 17, 2021

March 2021

The table below shows implied stock changes for CY 2021 and 2022: Highlights from the IEA’s March 2021 Oil Market Report (OMR) This month, the IEA released a shorter version of OMR as it focused on preparing and publishing its annual market report – Oil 2021 . In its commentary section, the IEA highlighted that it does not see “a new super-cycle and a looming supply shortfall” for the following reasons: 1) high inventory levels. OECD industry stocks were at 3,023 mbbls by the end of January, 11.....


GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | February 11, 2021

February 2021

The table below shows implied stock changes for CY 2021 and 2022: Highlights from the IEA’s January 2021 Oil Market Report (OMR) The IEA revised down 2019 demand baseline by -0.33 mb/d, reflecting newly incorporated non-OECD data, including China, India, Indonesia and Thailand. As a result, 2019 demand fell below the 100 mb/d mark to 99.7 mb/d with Y/Y growth averaging +0.39 mb/d. Following a sharp decline of -8.69 mb/d in 2020 (two-thirds in the OECD), oil demand is expected to recover by ~62% .....


GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | January 19, 2021

January 2021

The table below shows implied stock changes for 2021 and 2022: Highlights from the IEA’s January 2021 Oil Market Report (OMR) Since late last year, many countries have imposed more strict measures to combat the resurgences of Covid-19 cases, including the ones infected by the new virus variants, resulting in reduced mobility worldwide and fuel consumption. The IEA continued to cut its projections for global oil consumption for the third consecutive month. The reductions (-0.04 mb/d in 2020 and -.....


GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | December 15, 2020

December 2020

The table below shows implied stock changes for 4Q 2020 – 4Q 2021: Highlights from the IEA’s December 2020 Oil Market Report (OMR) Following significant downward revisions posted last month, global oil demand in 2020 was lowered even further by -0.05 in the latest OMR, with a heavy burden of -0.17 mb/d in 2H, driven by worse-than-expected impact caused by the resurgence of Covid-19 cases in the US, Europe and Russia. Following a YoY decline of -8.82 mb/d in 2020, world oil demand is expected to .....


GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | November 13, 2020

November 2020

The table below shows implied stock changes for 4Q 2020 – 4Q 2021: Highlights from the IEA’s November 2020 Oil Market Report (OMR) Similar to OPEC and EIA, the IEA revealed a bearish near-term outlook, owing to new measures taken for combating the resurgence of the Covid-19 cases in the OECD countries. However, the Agency believes the impacts on oil demand would be less severe than they were earlier this year. For example, oil demand in OECD Europe is projected to be -2.1 mb/d lower YoY in Novem.....


GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | October 14, 2020

October 2020

The table below shows implied stock changes for 4Q 2020 – 4Q 2021: Highlights from the IEA’s October 2020 Oil Market Report (OMR) IEA’s oil balances were largely unchanged despite some regional adjustments. Global oil consumption will decrease by -8.4 mb/d YoY to 91.7 mb/d in 2020 before recovering by +5.5 mb/d next year, with non-OPEC supply growing by only +0.4 mb/d in 2021. If OPEC+ complies, the IEA sees oil inventories to fall by -2.3 mb/d in 3Q20 and -4.1 mb/d in 4Q20 following large build.....


GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | September 16, 2020

September 2020

The table below shows implied stock changes for 3Q 2020 – 4Q 2021: Highlights from the IEA’s September 2020 Oil Market Report (OMR) The IEA warned in the latest OMR that “sentiment is weakening” and “the outlook appears even more fragile”, lowering its global oil demand estimates for the second consecutive month. Driven by lower-than-expected consumption in the US and Malaysia, oil demand in 2Q was revised down by -0.17 mb/d to 83.04 mb/d. Following rapid recoveries in May (+4.5 mb/d MoM) and Ju.....


GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | August 13, 2020

August 2020

The table below shows implied stock changes for 3Q 2020 – 4Q 2021: Highlights from the IEA’s August 2020 Oil Market Report (OMR) The number of Covid-19 infections continues to grow, recently setting a new high of ~280,000 daily cases globally. Many governments extended or re-implemented containment measures to combat the spread of the virus. The economic impact caused by the second round of restrictions may not be as severe as the ones observed in 1H20, but those actions continue to weigh on the.....


GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | July 14, 2020

July 2020

The table below shows implied stock change for 3Q 2020 – 4Q 2021: Highlights from the IEA’s July 2020 Oil Market Report (OMR) With newly emerging data, the IEA continues to see improvements over “Black April” when global oil demand plunge by as large as -21.6 mb/d. Following a large upward revision of +2.1 mb/d in the June OMR, oil demand in 2Q20 was lifted again in this month’s report by +1.5 mb/d to an average of 82.9 mb/d, reflecting stronger-than-expected rebounds in May and June. Further im.....


GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | June 17, 2020

June 2020

The table below shows implied stock change for 2Q 2020 – 4Q 2021: * Assuming OPEC production to average 25.95 mb/d in 2Q20, 23.82 mb/d in 3Q20, 24.23 mb/d in 4Q20 and 25.44 mb/d for Cal21. Highlights from the IEA’s June 2020 Oil Market Report (OMR) In this month’s OMR, the IEA published its 2021 outlook for the first time, expecting continuous improvements in the oil market with a strong demand recovery and a moderate supply growth. Meanwhile, the IEA warned that “enormous uncertainties” remain .....