GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| October 11, 2019
October 2019
The table below shows implied stock change for 2H2019 and Y2020:Highlights from the IEA’s October 2019 Oil Market Report (OMR)The IEA significantly lowered its GDP growth projection by 0.3% to 2.9% for 2019 and by 0.4% to 3.0% for 2020 following the latest release of OECD Interim Economic Outlook, “in theory”, resulting in downward revisions of -135 kb/d to oil demand projections for the remainder of 201… .......
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| September 12, 2019
September 2019
Highlights from the IEA’s September 2019 Oil Market Report (OMR)In this month’s OMR, the IEA kept overall global oil demand and supply balances unchanged despite regional and/or quarterly adjustments. The Agency sees a 0.85 mb/d stock build in the first half of 2019 but a draw of 0.8 mb/d in the second half to reflect “flat OPEC production, stronger demand growth, and weaker non-OPEC supply growth”. However, the IEA w… .......
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| August 16, 2019
August 2019
https://www.lcmc-research.com/images/reports/2217_Global_Aug2019_medium.png *Highlights from the IEA’s August 2019 Oil Market Report (OMR)* The IEA warned in its latest OMR that oil demand outlook is “fragile” and the risks are skewed to the downside. Global oil consumption growth was cut by -0.1 mb/d for 2019 to 1.1 mb/d and by -0.05 mb/d for 2020 to 1.3 mb/d following lowered global GDP projections posted by the IMF in July and downside risks led by the escalated US… .......
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| July 12, 2019
July 2019
The table below shows implied stock change for 2H2019 and 2020: https://www.lcmc-research.com/images/reports/2204_Untitled_medium.png *Highlights from the IEA’s July 2019 Oil Market Report (OMR)* While maintaining its GDP growth projection and oil demand largely unchanged from the June publication, the IEA continues to see downside risks to global oil consumption owing to recently weakened trade activity and manufacturing output. Oil demand in 2Q19 was revise… .......
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| June 14, 2019
June 2019
The table below shows implied stock change for 2019 Q2-Q4 and 2020: https://www.lcmc-research.com/images/reports/2195_Untitled_medium.png *Highlights from the IEA’s June 2019 Oil Market Report (OMR)* The IEA pointed out that while supply risks remain in the market, the “main focus” has shifted to the demand side due to weakened economic growth. Remarkably, the IEA based its demand projections on OECD’s outlook for global GDP growth, which shows a lower-than-I… .......
EARNINGS CALLS
| May 31, 2019
May 31, 2019
With 2019 marking the year of ‘free cash flow’ optimization for producers, this quarter was the first glimpse into how producers were adjusting to stricter CAPEX budgets and changing shareholder expectations around production. The Anadarko Petroleum takeover loomed large over this quarters’ calls with analysts poking around to determine “who’s next?” On a play-by-play basis, negative gas pricing in the Permian made associated gas a focus this quarter and recent announcements from Midcontinent p… .......
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| May 15, 2019
May 2019
The table below shows implied stock change for 2019 Q2-Q4 and 2020: https://www.lcmc-research.com/images/reports/2186_Untitled_medium.png *Highlights from the IEA’s May 2019 Oil Market Report (OMR)* Today’s OMR notes how “geopolitics and industry disruptions” confuse “the supply outlook.” The "one-pager":https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2019/may/oil-market-report-markets-remaining-calm.html hits many points on the supply side, including Libya, Iran, Venezuel… .......
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| April 11, 2019
April 2019
The table below shows implied stock change for 2019 2Q-4Q and 2020: https://www.lcmc-research.com/images/reports/2169_Untitled_medium.png *Highlights from the IEA’s April 2019 Oil Market Report (OMR)* Under current OPEC+ supply cuts and with US sanctions against Iran & Venezuela, the IEA sees tightness in the oil market but warns “mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet ‘normal’”. In April OMR, the agency kept ov… .......
EARNINGS CALLS
| April 02, 2019
Oil and Gas Producers (4Q 2018)
“Organic” and “local” do not belong to the list of words commonly used in E&P earnings calls. Yet, both terms came up this quarter to describe changing attitudes towards supply and demand, respectively. Producers “living within their means” are lowering leveraged CAPEX, focusing on free cash flow, share buybacks, reducing costs and finding capital efficiencies in order to grow _organically_. And in certain cases – such as the Marcellus – they are also focusing on _local_ demand growth to find n… .......
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| March 15, 2019
March 2019
The table below shows implied stock change for 2019 and 2020: https://www.lcmc-research.com/images/reports/2158_Untitled_medium.png *Highlights from the IEA’s March 2019 Oil Market Report (OMR)* With the IMF lowering its 2019 global GDP projection to 3.5% (down by -0.2%), the IEA acknowledges that the “economic sentiment is becoming more pessimistic and the global economy could be entering a vulnerable period.” The Agency approaches the economic vulnerability… .......