GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| January 16, 2020
January 2020
The table below shows implied stock change for CY2020-2021: Note: Projected OPEC production includes Ecuador’s oil supply for the 2020-2021 period. Ecuador was due to leave OPEC on January 1, 2020 and its Ministry of Energy and Non-Renewable Natural Resources confirmed the country’s departure on January 2. However, as of today, Ecuador is still listed as a member country on OPEC’s official website. According to a Platts article , Ecuador and OPEC “have been discussing a potential return”. Goi.....
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| December 12, 2019
December 2019
The table below shows implied stock change for 4Q2019 and Y2020: Highlights from the IEA’s December 2019 Oil Market Report (OMR) In the latest OMR, the IEA revised global oil demand marginally lower, down by -0.02 mb/d for 2019 and -0.05 mb/d for 2020, mainly owing to lower-than-expected consumption in OECD Americas & Europe (-0.04 mb/d for 2019; -0.08 mb/d for 2020), FSU and Africa. Those revisions were partially offset by stronger Chinese (+0.05 mb/d for 2019; +0.08 mb/d for 2020) and Saudi Ar.....
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| November 15, 2019
November 2019
The table below shows implied stock change for 4Q2019 and Y2020: Highlights from the IEA’s November 2019 Oil Market Report (OMR) In the latest OMR, the IEA incorporated IMF October World Economic Outlook which lowered world GDP growth estimates down by -0.2ppt to 3.0% for 2019 and -0.1ppt to 3.4% for 2020 from the July publication. The IEA’s model shows that current US/China tariffs, if carried into 2020, could dampen global oil demand by nearly 400 kb/d compared to the “no-tariff” scenario. Sin.....
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| October 11, 2019
October 2019
The table below shows implied stock change for 2H2019 and Y2020: Highlights from the IEA’s October 2019 Oil Market Report (OMR) The IEA significantly lowered its GDP growth projection by 0.3% to 2.9% for 2019 and by 0.4% to 3.0% for 2020 following the latest release of OECD Interim Economic Outlook, “in theory”, resulting in downward revisions of -135 kb/d to oil demand projections for the remainder of 2019 and -180 kb/d in 2020. With the addition of higher-than-expected US oil consumption in 20.....
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| September 12, 2019
September 2019
Highlights from the IEA’s September 2019 Oil Market Report (OMR) In this month’s OMR, the IEA kept overall global oil demand and supply balances unchanged despite regional and/or quarterly adjustments. The Agency sees a 0.85 mb/d stock build in the first half of 2019 but a draw of 0.8 mb/d in the second half to reflect “flat OPEC production, stronger demand growth, and weaker non-OPEC supply growth”. However, the IEA warned that the “breather” would be short-lived. As presented in the table abov.....
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| August 16, 2019
August 2019
Highlights from the IEA’s August 2019 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) The IEA warned in its latest OMR that oil demand outlook is “fragile” and the risks are skewed to the downside. Global oil consumption growth was cut by -0.1 mb/d for 2019 to 1.1 mb/d and by -0.05 mb/d for 2020 to 1.3 mb/d following lowered global GDP projections posted by the IMF in July and downside risks led by the escalated US-China trade dispute. The slowdown in oil consumption growth is reflected in the Jan-May an.....
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| July 12, 2019
July 2019
The table below shows implied stock change for 2H2019 and 2020: Highlights from the IEA’s July 2019 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) While maintaining its GDP growth projection and oil demand largely unchanged from the June publication, the IEA continues to see downside risks to global oil consumption owing to recently weakened trade activity and manufacturing output. Oil demand in 2Q19 was revised down by -0.4 mb/d to 99.6 mb/d, driven by lower-than-expected oil consumption in Italy, Ind.....
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| June 14, 2019
June 2019
The table below shows implied stock change for 2019 Q2-Q4 and 2020: Highlights from the IEA’s June 2019 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) The IEA pointed out that while supply risks remain in the market, the “main focus” has shifted to the demand side due to weakened economic growth. Remarkably, the IEA based its demand projections on OECD’s outlook for global GDP growth, which shows a lower-than- IEA -expected growth rate of 3.2% with world trade growth falling to the level seen ten yea.....
EARNINGS CALLS
| May 31, 2019
May 31, 2019
With 2019 marking the year of ‘free cash flow’ optimization for producers, this quarter was the first glimpse into how producers were adjusting to stricter CAPEX budgets and changing shareholder expectations around production. The Anadarko Petroleum takeover loomed large over this quarters’ calls with analysts poking around to determine “who’s next?” On a play-by-play basis, negative gas pricing in the Permian made associated gas a focus this quarter and recent announcements from Midcontinent .....
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| May 15, 2019
May 2019
The table below shows implied stock change for 2019 Q2-Q4 and 2020: Highlights from the IEA’s May 2019 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) Today’s OMR notes how “geopolitics and industry disruptions” confuse “the supply outlook.” The one-pager hits many points on the supply side, including Libya, Iran, Venezuela, “attacks on shipping off Fujairah and on two pumping stations in Saudi Arabia” as well as the contamination in the 1.4 mb/d Druzhba system. The real page-turner for us, however, was.....