GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | March 12, 2020

March 2020

Ecuador has officially withdrawn from the OPEC member from January 1, 2020, according to a press release following the conclusion of OPEC’s 178th meeting on March 5. OPEC shifted Ecuador’s oil supply from OPEC to non-OPEC balances in the March MOMR. The IEA and EIA will adjust accordingly starting with their April publications. The table below shows implied stock change for CY2020-2021: *Assuming OPEC production to average 28.55 mb/d in 1Q20, 29.74 mb/d in 2Q20 and 30.78 mb/d for the rest of f.....


SPECIAL REPORT | March 02, 2020

Insights From The Front Lines of Combating the Coronavirus

Dear , Over the weekend, total lives lost to Covid-19 has passed the 3,000 mark, the U.S. confirmed two deaths from the Coronavirus, and the first case in New York – a Manhattan woman in her 30s – was confirmed . A Dutch hospital was closed to new patients, with existing patients put under a quarantine. Conferences (including CERAWeek ) have been canceled, and staff forced Louvre closure over infection fears. Since mid-January, we have been following epidemiologists to identify leading pro.....


GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | February 13, 2020

February 2020

The table below shows implied stock change for CY2020-2021: Note: Projected OPEC production includes Ecuador’s oil supply for the 2020-2021 period. Ecuador was due to leave OPEC on January 1, 2020 and its Ministry of Energy and Non-Renewable Natural Resources confirmed the country’s departure on January 2. However, as of today, Ecuador is still listed as a member country on OPEC’s official website. According to a Platts article , Ecuador and OPEC “have been discussing a potential return”. Goi.....


GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | January 16, 2020

January 2020

The table below shows implied stock change for CY2020-2021: Note: Projected OPEC production includes Ecuador’s oil supply for the 2020-2021 period. Ecuador was due to leave OPEC on January 1, 2020 and its Ministry of Energy and Non-Renewable Natural Resources confirmed the country’s departure on January 2. However, as of today, Ecuador is still listed as a member country on OPEC’s official website. According to a Platts article , Ecuador and OPEC “have been discussing a potential return”. Goi.....


GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | December 12, 2019

December 2019

The table below shows implied stock change for 4Q2019 and Y2020: Highlights from the IEA’s December 2019 Oil Market Report (OMR) In the latest OMR, the IEA revised global oil demand marginally lower, down by -0.02 mb/d for 2019 and -0.05 mb/d for 2020, mainly owing to lower-than-expected consumption in OECD Americas & Europe (-0.04 mb/d for 2019; -0.08 mb/d for 2020), FSU and Africa. Those revisions were partially offset by stronger Chinese (+0.05 mb/d for 2019; +0.08 mb/d for 2020) and Saudi Ar.....


GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | November 15, 2019

November 2019

The table below shows implied stock change for 4Q2019 and Y2020: Highlights from the IEA’s November 2019 Oil Market Report (OMR) In the latest OMR, the IEA incorporated IMF October World Economic Outlook which lowered world GDP growth estimates down by -0.2ppt to 3.0% for 2019 and -0.1ppt to 3.4% for 2020 from the July publication. The IEA’s model shows that current US/China tariffs, if carried into 2020, could dampen global oil demand by nearly 400 kb/d compared to the “no-tariff” scenario. Sin.....


GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | October 11, 2019

October 2019

The table below shows implied stock change for 2H2019 and Y2020: Highlights from the IEA’s October 2019 Oil Market Report (OMR) The IEA significantly lowered its GDP growth projection by 0.3% to 2.9% for 2019 and by 0.4% to 3.0% for 2020 following the latest release of OECD Interim Economic Outlook, “in theory”, resulting in downward revisions of -135 kb/d to oil demand projections for the remainder of 2019 and -180 kb/d in 2020. With the addition of higher-than-expected US oil consumption in 20.....


GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | September 12, 2019

September 2019

Highlights from the IEA’s September 2019 Oil Market Report (OMR) In this month’s OMR, the IEA kept overall global oil demand and supply balances unchanged despite regional and/or quarterly adjustments. The Agency sees a 0.85 mb/d stock build in the first half of 2019 but a draw of 0.8 mb/d in the second half to reflect “flat OPEC production, stronger demand growth, and weaker non-OPEC supply growth”. However, the IEA warned that the “breather” would be short-lived. As presented in the table abov.....


GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | August 16, 2019

August 2019

Highlights from the IEA’s August 2019 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) The IEA warned in its latest OMR that oil demand outlook is “fragile” and the risks are skewed to the downside. Global oil consumption growth was cut by -0.1 mb/d for 2019 to 1.1 mb/d and by -0.05 mb/d for 2020 to 1.3 mb/d following lowered global GDP projections posted by the IMF in July and downside risks led by the escalated US-China trade dispute. The slowdown in oil consumption growth is reflected in the Jan-May an.....


GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | July 12, 2019

July 2019

The table below shows implied stock change for 2H2019 and 2020: Highlights from the IEA’s July 2019 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) While maintaining its GDP growth projection and oil demand largely unchanged from the June publication, the IEA continues to see downside risks to global oil consumption owing to recently weakened trade activity and manufacturing output. Oil demand in 2Q19 was revised down by -0.4 mb/d to 99.6 mb/d, driven by lower-than-expected oil consumption in Italy, Ind.....