June 2021

The table below shows implied stock changes for 2Q21-4Q22: Please find below the link to this month's Global Oil Recap and Balances Report , which provides summaries for the latest monthly oil reports published by the IEA, OPEC and the EIA.

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | May 17, 2021

May 2021

DATA INSIGHT | April 23, 2021

Guaranteed Upside to the EIA's NG Production Estimates

A key assumption in the EIA’s current modeling of marketed production uses historical data from 2019 to set flaring rates. When these rates are carried forward, dry production, especially for associated gas plays, is underestimated in 2020 and 2021. In this paper, we walk our readers through the process using the Bakken as a case study and quantify the region's potential error at ~250 mmcf/d.

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | April 14, 2021

April 2021

The table below shows implied stock changes for 2Q21 and 4Q22: Highlights from the IEA’s April 2021 Oil Market Report (OMR) Global oil demand was revised down slightly by -0.03 mb/d for 2020, mainly driven by downward revisions to Chinese demand in 1Q-3Q 2020. The IEA highlighted that it has cut Chinese gasoline yield, resulting in lower gasoline demand. Global oil demand was lifted by +0.2 mb/d for 2021 to 96.7 mb/d, up by +5.7 mb/d Y/Y, mostly due to the higher-than-expected US (+0.18 mb/d) an.....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | March 17, 2021

March 2021

The table below shows implied stock changes for CY 2021 and 2022: Highlights from the IEA’s March 2021 Oil Market Report (OMR) This month, the IEA released a shorter version of OMR as it focused on preparing and publishing its annual market report – Oil 2021 . In its commentary section, the IEA highlighted that it does not see “a new super-cycle and a looming supply shortfall” for the following reasons: 1) high inventory levels. OECD industry stocks were at 3,023 mbbls by the end of January, 11.....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | February 11, 2021

February 2021

The table below shows implied stock changes for CY 2021 and 2022: Highlights from the IEA’s January 2021 Oil Market Report (OMR) The IEA revised down 2019 demand baseline by -0.33 mb/d, reflecting newly incorporated non-OECD data, including China, India, Indonesia and Thailand. As a result, 2019 demand fell below the 100 mb/d mark to 99.7 mb/d with Y/Y growth averaging +0.39 mb/d. Following a sharp decline of -8.69 mb/d in 2020 (two-thirds in the OECD), oil demand is expected to recover by ~62% .....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | January 19, 2021

January 2021

The table below shows implied stock changes for 2021 and 2022: Highlights from the IEA’s January 2021 Oil Market Report (OMR) Since late last year, many countries have imposed more strict measures to combat the resurgences of Covid-19 cases, including the ones infected by the new virus variants, resulting in reduced mobility worldwide and fuel consumption. The IEA continued to cut its projections for global oil consumption for the third consecutive month. The reductions (-0.04 mb/d in 2020 and -.....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | December 15, 2020

December 2020

The table below shows implied stock changes for 4Q 2020 – 4Q 2021: Highlights from the IEA’s December 2020 Oil Market Report (OMR) Following significant downward revisions posted last month, global oil demand in 2020 was lowered even further by -0.05 in the latest OMR, with a heavy burden of -0.17 mb/d in 2H, driven by worse-than-expected impact caused by the resurgence of Covid-19 cases in the US, Europe and Russia. Following a YoY decline of -8.82 mb/d in 2020, world oil demand is expected to .....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | November 13, 2020

November 2020

The table below shows implied stock changes for 4Q 2020 – 4Q 2021: Highlights from the IEA’s November 2020 Oil Market Report (OMR) Similar to OPEC and EIA, the IEA revealed a bearish near-term outlook, owing to new measures taken for combating the resurgence of the Covid-19 cases in the OECD countries. However, the Agency believes the impacts on oil demand would be less severe than they were earlier this year. For example, oil demand in OECD Europe is projected to be -2.1 mb/d lower YoY in Novem.....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | October 14, 2020

October 2020

The table below shows implied stock changes for 4Q 2020 – 4Q 2021: Highlights from the IEA’s October 2020 Oil Market Report (OMR) IEA’s oil balances were largely unchanged despite some regional adjustments. Global oil consumption will decrease by -8.4 mb/d YoY to 91.7 mb/d in 2020 before recovering by +5.5 mb/d next year, with non-OPEC supply growing by only +0.4 mb/d in 2021. If OPEC+ complies, the IEA sees oil inventories to fall by -2.3 mb/d in 3Q20 and -4.1 mb/d in 4Q20 following large build.....

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