No46 Global Grain

Dear , Please find below the link to our latest report, this week on Wheat. Key points: - Few months ago, we wrote that in a world intrinsically uncertain, it is important to improve the manner about how we learn about it. In reality, “we learn about the world through approximation, getting closer and closer to the truth as we gather more evidence” according to T. Bayes. While inductive reasoning based on probability can help us to assess risk associated to a particular situation, it remains tha.....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | July 21, 2022

July 2022

The table below shows implied stock changes for 3Q22-4Q23 based on assumptions of: 1) OPEC participants’ target crude output under the current agreement and keep it at the August 2022 level through the forecast period. 2) Exempted 3 countries: maintain June 2022 Iranian and Venezuelan output for the forecast period; For Libya, assuming 0.85 mb/d in 3Q22 and 1.2 mb/d for the remainder of the forecast period. Please find below the link to this month's Global Oil Recap and Balances Report .....

LCMC AGS WEEKLY NEWSLETTER | July 14, 2022

No45 - Wheat

Dear , Please find below the link to our latest report, this week on Wheat. Key points: - The Collatz conjecture – named after mathematician Lothar Collatz in the 1930s and also known as the 3n + 1 conjecture – remains one of the most famous unsolved problems in mathematics. Despite its apparent simplicity in formulation, it continues to fascinate many mathematicians around the planet – including Terence Tao, Fields Medal winner in 2006. To illustrate the conjecture, pick a positive number. If t.....

SPECIAL REPORT | July 06, 2022

ESG - Is That All There Is?

Last Thursday, in a ruling that will also call into question FERC’s assertion of authority under its GHG policy, the U.S. Supreme Court limited the EPA’s ability to regulate climate change. The ruling stated that the EPA must regulate carbon emissions from power plants individually and cannot treat the electricity generating system in each state as a single entity. Hence the ruling effectively kills the possibility of a cap-and-trade program under the Clean Air Act. On the April 14, 2022 episo.....

LCMC AGS WEEKLY NEWSLETTER | July 05, 2022

No44 - Macro-Corn

Dear , Please find below the link to our latest report, this week on Macro/Corn. Key points: - Scientific research tends to suggest that the impact from the Covid-19 pandemic on human psyche has led to more distortions in group thinking and mass behaviour following an increase in anxiety, trauma and stressor-related disorders. Preliminary research* from Harvard Medical School and Massachusetts General Hospital showed that even in the case of uninfected individuals, social restrictions during the.....

LCMC AGS WEEKLY NEWSLETTER | June 24, 2022

No43 - Wheat

Dear , Please find below the link to our latest report, this week on Wheat / Long-Term Perspective. Key points: - In The Affect Heuristic (2002), P. Slovic et al. explain that people ascertain what they think by referring to their feelings. “Affect means the specific quality of ‘goodness’ or ‘badness’ experienced as a feeling state and demarcating a positive or negative quality of a stimulus. Affective responses occur rapidly and automatically – note how quickly you sense the feelings associated.....

LCMC AGS WEEKLY NEWSLETTER | June 09, 2022

No42 Wheat - Russia

Dear , Please find below the link to our latest report, this week on Wheat / Russia. Key points: - During a recent visit of the world stamp exhibition in Lugano, several thoughts emerged after the viewing of an incredible work of historical research by G. Armando about the Crimean War (1853-1856). As written by the philatelist, “the use of postal history artifacts such as envelopes and letters of the era provide unique insights to many of the deeper themes”. While reading those letters from a l.....

LCMC AGS WEEKLY NEWSLETTER | May 31, 2022

No41 - Soybeans

Dear , Please find below the link to our latest report, this week on Soybeans. Key points: - In its May WASDE report, the USDA pegged the 2021-22 soybean crop in Brazil at 125 million MT compared with Conab at 123.8 million MT. The Brazilian agency increased its crop estimate by 1.4 million MT from the prior month on the back of improved yields in Mato Grosso and Rio Grande do Sul, respectively at 3.66 and 1.53 MT per hectare. As a reminder: the country’s soybean production is down from a prior .....

MARKET INSIGHT | May 25, 2022

The State of the Railroads - A Coal Perspective

The testimonies included in this report were transcribed from the Department of Transportation Surface Transportation Board hearings held on urgent issues in the freight rail service on April 26 and 27, 2022. They are selected specifically due to their relevance in the US coal, power and natural gas markets. Here are some key takeaways: As of 1Q22, 75% of coal-fired power plants have less than 40-day fuel supply to run at full capacity, 20% less than 10 days of fuel in hand. 89% of a utility sur.....

LCMC AGS WEEKLY NEWSLETTER | May 23, 2022

No 40 - Wheat - 23rd May 2022

Dear , Please find below the link to our latest report, this week on Wheat. Key points: - There are many sorts of complex systems in the world involving technological innovation and/or people – such as economic and political systems. Despite being thought as stable and self-correcting when needed, these systems can become volatile and random at times – forcing their complete revamp in order to avoid an otherwise certain collapse. The story of the opening day of the Millennium footbridge’s over t.....

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