GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | May 16, 2022

May 2022

The table below shows implied stock changes for 2Q22-4Q23 based on assumptions of: 1)     OPEC participants’ target crude output under the current agreement, increasing +0.254 mb/d every month (at 100% compliance) from August 2021 until it unwinds all supply cuts by September 2022, and keep at September 2022 level through the forecast period. 2)     Exempted 3 countries: maintain April Iranian and Venezuelan output for the forecast period. For Libya, assuming 1.02 mb/d in 2Q22 and 1.1 mb/d in 2H.....


LCMC AGS WEEKLY NEWSLETTER | May 15, 2022

No39 : adding sources

Dear , We wanted to add sources for Graph 1 : E. Quigley - Harmonic Timing Sorry for the inconvenience. Mehdi Chaouky / Erel-Antoine Goren Speak soon. Erel-Antoine Goren +33 (0)1 78 95 92 33 icechat: eagoren1


LCMC AGS WEEKLY NEWSLETTER | May 13, 2022

No39 13th May22 - Macro Grains

Dear , Please find below the link to our latest report, this week on Macro Grains. Key points: - According to D. Kahneman, P. Slovic and A. Tversky in Judgment and Uncertainty, most people tend to make predictions by selecting the outcome that is most representative of the input. “The confidence they have in their prediction depends primarily on the degree of representativeness (that is, on the quality of the match between the selected outcome and the input) with little or no regard for the fact.....


LCMC AGS WEEKLY NEWSLETTER | May 02, 2022

No38 - Corn - 2nd May22

Dear , Please find below the link to our latest report, this week on Corn. Key points: - In Heuristics and Biases in Military Decision Making, Major Blair S. Williams discusses, among other concepts, the human tendency to misjudge probability and equilibrium sequence. Using the example of roulette at a casino, he writes: “the following three sequences of red and black could occur: RBRBRB or RRRBBB or RBBBBB. Which sequence is more likely? The answer is that all of these sequences are equally lik.....


LCMC AGS WEEKLY NEWSLETTER | April 19, 2022

No37 - Corn - 19th Apr22

Dear , Please find below the link to our latest report, this week on Corn. Key points: - In his book The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver argues that in the “science of prediction”, finding patterns is easy in any kind of data-rich environment. However, it is a subtle task to determine whether the patterns represent noise or signal. In that attempt, the author relates to Thomas Bayes – an English Presbyterian minister, philosopher and statistician born in 1702 – and his work on the theory of pr.....


GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | April 14, 2022

April 2022

The table below shows implied stock changes for 2Q22-4Q23 based on assumptions of: 1) OPEC participants’ target crude output under the current agreement, increasing +0.254 mb/d every month (at 100% compliance) from August 2021 until it unwinds all supply cuts by September 2022, and keep at September 2022 level through the forecast period. 2) Exempted 3 countries: maintain March output for the forecast period. Please find below the link to this month's Global Oil Recap and Balances Report , whic.....


LCMC AGS WEEKLY NEWSLETTER | April 05, 2022

No36 - 5th Apr22

Dear , Please find below the link to our latest report, this week on Oilseed. Key points: - It is generally accepted that commodity markets are driven by greed and fear, two emotions that at times can drive prices beyond fundamental valuations. War is certainly one of those moments. In his trading courses, W.D. Gann wrote the following: “1939, September. Hitler started the war and war is always bullish on wheat and you should always buy when war starts. May wheat was selling around 62.5 in Augus.....


LCMC AGS WEEKLY NEWSLETTER | March 27, 2022

No35 - Global Grain

Dear , Please find below the link to our latest report, this week on Global grains. Key points: - In 2010, a study called ‘Overcoming status quo bias in the human brain’ by S. Fleming, C. Thomas and R. Dolan looked at the decision-making of 16 participants taking part in a tennis 'line-judgement' game while their brains were scanned using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). The participants were asked to look at a tennis ball landing in a court on a computer screen while holding down a.....


MARKET INSIGHT | March 25, 2022

European Gas Coverage and US' NG Pledge to the EU

NEW PRODUCT! European Natural Gas Flows and Storage What to Expect from President Biden’s Visit to Europe - a Case for Natural Gas LCMC is launching its European natural gas coverage starting with regional flow and storage models. Today's data stats are accompanied by a two-part commentary. The first part focuses on the US-EU meetings taking place in Europe this week. The write-up speculates on a list of topics in natural gas supply security that was likely discussed among the allies and may be .....


LCMC AGS WEEKLY NEWSLETTER | March 17, 2022

No34 - Corn

Dear , Please find below the link to our latest report, this week on Corn. Key points: - In his book The Wisdom of Crowds, James Surowiecki explains the mechanism through which a crowd's “collective intelligence” is able to produce better outcomes than a small group of experts. "Ask a hundred people to answer a question or solve a problem, and the average answer will often be at least as good as the answer of the smartest member". The author refers to a famous experiment conducted in 1884 at the.....