GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | October 14, 2021

October 2021

The table below shows IEA, OPEC and EIA’s implied stock changes for 4Q21-4Q22 based on: 1) OPEC participants’ target crude output under the current agreement, increasing +0.26 mb/d every month (at 100% compliance) from August 2021 until it unwinds all supply cuts by September 2022; 2) Exempted 3 countries maintain September output through the forecast period Please find below the link to this month's Global Oil Recap and Balances Report , which provides summaries for the latest monthly oil rep.....


LCMC AGS WEEKLY NEWSLETTER | October 14, 2021

14th Oct21

Dear , Please find below the link to our latest report, this week on Macro ! Key points: The theoretical model on the effects of interest rates stipulates that monetary expansion temporarily drops the real interest rate – whether via a decrease in the nominal interest rate, an increase in inflation, or both. Commodity prices then accelerate to the upside until they reach overvalued territory – a stage in which market operators’ expectation of a future price correction is large enough to adjust .....


LCMC AGS WEEKLY NEWSLETTER | October 01, 2021

No 17 - 1st Oct21

Dear , Please find below the link to our latest report, this week on Oilseed complex ! Key points: The quarterly stock report released by the USDA on 30 September came as a surprise to some market operators if one judges by the price reaction afterward. US soybean inventories stood at 256 million bushels as of 1 September, compared with 524 million one year ago. Despite being down substantially since last year, quarterly stocks came above average estimates at 185 million bushels. The inventory p.....


LCMC AGS WEEKLY NEWSLETTER | September 24, 2021

24th Sep21 : Corn

Dear , Please find below the link to our latest report, this week on Corn ! Key points: Grain markets have entered a transition phase as corn and oilseeds harvests in the northern hemisphere start to unfold, while trade out of the Western Europe and the Black Sea region gets more active. That phase is normally associated with well-defined seasonal lows in corn prices. Over the past 30 years, the average date for a harvest low in cash Illinois corn is 17 October. However, with the annual high pos.....


LCMC AGS WEEKLY NEWSLETTER | September 16, 2021

16th Sep21

Dear , Please find below the link to our latest report, this week on Wheat ! Key points: The USDA’s WASDE report did not bring much fundamental surprise to the wheat market. Though slightly bearish in nature due to the upward revision in global ending stocks for 2021-22, the crucial price area at USD 7.77-7.83 per bushel in the Chicago Dec’21 contract managed to hold. A negative WASDE report followed by positive price action may call for friendly dynamic for a few more days. Wheat now appears to.....


AGRICULTURE VOLATILITY ANALYSIS | September 10, 2021

10th Sep, 21

Dear , Following Sugar Fundamental report sent yesterday, please find below Volatility analysis with trade idea ! Speak soon. Erel-Antoine Goren +33 (0)1 78 95 92 33 icechat: eagoren1


LCMC AGS WEEKLY NEWSLETTER | September 09, 2021

No14

Dear , Please find below the link to our latest report, this week on Sugar ! Key points: Sugar prices have been moving consistently higher since April 2020 in similar fashion to the uptrend witnessed in 2015-16. Back then, sugar prices more than doubled between the low of August 2015 and the high of September 2016. Despite challenging weather conditions in some areas, improving yields may help the EU sugar beet output to rebound to 15.5 million MT in 2021-22. This was favoured by exemptions on t.....


LCMC AGS WEEKLY NEWSLETTER | September 01, 2021

Aug 31, 2021

Dear , Please find below the link to our latest report, this week on Soybeans ! Key points: Despite recent weather scares related to tropical storm Ida, cash soybean prices did not gain much traction and remain for now in a medium-term downtrend. Even the September-November 2021 bull calendar spread in Chicago did not manage to hold its 42 cents gain low to high from last week. It has actually completely reversed since Friday, positing new lows on 31 August. Some market participants anticipated .....


LCMC AGS WEEKLY NEWSLETTER | August 25, 2021

No12

Dear , Please find below the link to our latest report, this week on Corn ! Key points: Grains posted last week their worst weekly performance since the second week of May. Corn and winter wheat prices fell by USD 14 and 15 per MT respectively on the back of subdued commercial activity, stronger US dollar and weather forecasts calling for increased chance of precipitation over a large portion of the US Corn Belt. The USDA slashed its 2021-22 world corn production estimate by 8 million MT in Augu.....


GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | August 18, 2021

August 2021

The table below shows IEA, OPEC and EIA’s implied stock changes for 3Q21-4Q22 based on our OPEC or OPEC+ crude output assumptions:: Please find below the link to this month's Global Oil Recap and Balances Report , which provides summaries for the latest monthly oil reports published by the IEA, OPEC and the EIA.