NG MARKET MONITOR | November 22, 2019

U.S. Natural Gas Trade - November 2019

Dear , TC Energy held its 2019 Investor Day in Toronto on Tuesday, November 19. Considering that the company handles ~75% of gas produced in the WCSB, carries ~25% of North American natural gas, and is increasingly involved in the Mexican natural gas pipeline infrastructure projects, we decided to summarize the highlights of the 3.5 hour event in the report. Routine maintenance work can deliver surprises: The Clearwater compressor work, scheduled between October 30 and November 10 was supposed t.....


NG MARKET MONITOR | November 06, 2019

Revisions, revisions...

Dear , Please follow the link below to find our latest NG Market Monitor and balances: The EIA has released its long-awaited Natural Gas Annual (NGA) 2018 last week. The report contains granular and final (more on that later) data for 2018. March 2018 marketed production was raised by more than 1.5 bcf/d, with 1Q18 output getting lifted up by 1.1 bcf/d. The monthly revisions worked both ways though, as the increase for CY 2018 was limited to just 0.25 bcf/d. A quick look at 2019 revisions revea.....


NG MARKET MONITOR | October 18, 2019

U.S Natural Gas Trade - October 2019

Dear , Please follow the link below to find our monthly U.S natural gas trade monitor and balances: Canada: AECO pricing dynamics are changing on low storage inventories and amendments to the NGTL tariff. LNG: A gap between the first and second wave of LNG export projects changes short-term export risks. Mexico: After this summer’s standoff between the CFE and Pipeline companies new private funding for energy projects in Mexico has become increasingly uncertainty.


NG MARKET MONITOR | October 05, 2019

Cybersecurity and Critical Infrastructure

Dear , Please follow the link below to our latest NG Market Monitor and balances. October is the National Cybersecurity Awareness Month (NCSAM), and we decided to take a quick look at the oil, gas, and electricity cybersecurity risks frequently discussed by the U.S Government Accountability Office (GAO) and assess whether the potential impact of such an attack should be priced in... Surprisingly, next year’s US presidential election will provide an extra layer of protection against critical infr.....


NG MARKET MONITOR | September 13, 2019

U.S Natural Gas Trade - September 2019

Canada: The Canada Energy Regulator takes over from the NEB and NGTL tariff amendments have the potential to impact AECO pricing. LNG : While European storage fills, floating storage becomes an increasingly viable option. Mexico: After contentious re-negotiations to natural gas pipeline contracts, President Obrador reaffirmed the need for private sector investment and natural gas in the Mexican economy.


NG MARKET MONITOR | September 06, 2019

Data

The June supply and disposition volumes released by the EIA last week once again required some legwork to internalize. For starters, production came in at 91.2 bcf/d, 1.2 bcf/d higher than what we had anticipated – and well-above the market consensus. The highlight of comparing our balances was the power burn estimate that was practically spot on. We missed residential and commercial demand, which posted their highest June numbers in 6 and 17 years, respectively. Our industrial demand esti.....


NG MARKET MONITOR | August 16, 2019

U.S Natural Gas Trade - August 2019

This month’s report outlines the highlights from this quarter’s earnings calls, with a specific focus on LNG Exports, Canadian Imports and Mexican Exports.


NG MARKET MONITOR | August 05, 2019

Thoughts on Balances

Looking back at August 1, the TETCO explosion likely distracted the market’s attention away from what we believe should have been the main topic of the day/week: EIA’s May 2019 balances that were released through the Natural Gas Monthly ( NGM ) the day before… The weakening ethane premium since the beginning of February directionally supports our theory for March and April, but fails to explain our revision-adjusted 0.3 bcf/d underestimation in May…The bigger story is about what has happened.....


NG MARKET MONITOR | July 18, 2019

U.S Natural Gas Trade - July 2019

Mexico: Natural gas pipeline contracts are creating tension in the highest levels of the Mexican government, introducing political risk to our Mexican export forecast… Canada: A proposal to change curtailment methodology and fundamental signals are pointing to future support for AECO prices… LNG : LNG feed gas continues to ramp up…


NG MARKET MONITOR | July 09, 2019

Nobody is Generating Free Cash Flow

On June 26, the Dallas Fed has released its latest energy survey. The quarterly publication has a sample size of approximately 200 E&P and support service firms across Dallas FED’s service area. The questionnaire includes standardized inquiries about business conditions, along with one-off “special questions” and a comments section. Conducted between June 12-20, the survey paints a pessimistic view of the E&P and service sector’s future. To quote an E&P executive who provided comments, “it looks.....