NG MARKET MONITOR | October 18, 2019

U.S Natural Gas Trade - October 2019

Dear {{subscriber.first_name}},Please follow the link below to find our monthly U.S natural gas trade monitor and balances:{{list__document_html | safe}}Canada: AECO pricing dynamics are changing on low storage inventories and amendments to the NGTL tariff. LNG:A gap between the first and second wave of LNG export projects changes short-term export risks. Mexico:After this summer’s standoff b… .......


NG MARKET MONITOR | October 05, 2019

Cybersecurity and Critical Infrastructure

Dear {{subscriber.first_name}},Please follow the link below to our latest NG Market Monitor and balances.{{list__document_html | safe}}October is the National Cybersecurity Awareness Month (NCSAM), and we decided to take a quick look at the oil, gas, and electricity cybersecurity risks frequently discussed by the U.S Government Accountability Office (GAO) and assess whether the potential impact of such an attack should be priced in...Surprisingly, next year’s… .......


NG MARKET MONITOR | September 13, 2019

U.S Natural Gas Trade - September 2019

*Canada:* The Canada Energy Regulator takes over from the NEB and NGTL tariff amendments have the potential to impact AECO pricing. *LNG:* While European storage fills, floating storage becomes an increasingly viable option. *Mexico:* After contentious re-negotiations to natural gas pipeline contracts, President Obrador reaffirmed the need for private sector investment and natural gas in the Mexican economy.


NG MARKET MONITOR | September 06, 2019

Data

The June supply and disposition volumes released by the EIA last week once again required some legwork to internalize. For starters, production came in at 91.2 bcf/d, 1.2 bcf/d higher than what we had anticipated – and well-above the market consensus. The highlight of comparing our balances was the power burn estimate that was practically spot on. We missed residential and commercial demand, which posted their highest June numbers in 6 and 17 years, respectively. Our industrial demand es… .......


NG MARKET MONITOR | August 16, 2019

U.S Natural Gas Trade - August 2019

This month’s report outlines the highlights from this quarter's earnings calls, with a specific focus on LNG Exports, Canadian Imports and Mexican Exports.


NG MARKET MONITOR | August 05, 2019

Thoughts on Balances

Looking back at August 1, the TETCO explosion likely distracted the market’s attention away from what we believe should have been the main topic of the day/week: EIA’s May 2019 balances that were released through the Natural Gas Monthly (NGM) the day before... The weakening ethane premium since the beginning of February directionally supports our theory for March and April, but fails to explain our revision-adjusted 0.3 bcf/d underestimation in May...The bigger story is about what has happene… .......


NG MARKET MONITOR | July 18, 2019

U.S Natural Gas Trade - July 2019

*Mexico:* Natural gas pipeline contracts are creating tension in the highest levels of the Mexican government, introducing political risk to our Mexican export forecast... *Canada:* A proposal to change curtailment methodology and fundamental signals are pointing to future support for AECO prices... *LNG:* LNG feed gas continues to ramp up...


NG MARKET MONITOR | July 09, 2019

Nobody is Generating Free Cash Flow

On June 26, the Dallas Fed has released its latest energy survey. The quarterly publication has a sample size of approximately 200 E&P and support service firms across Dallas FED’s service area. The questionnaire includes standardized inquiries about business conditions, along with one-off “special questions” and a comments section. Conducted between June 12-20, the survey paints a pessimistic view of the E&P and service sector’s future. To quote an E&P executive who provided comments, “it look… .......


EARNINGS CALLS | May 31, 2019

May 31, 2019

With 2019 marking the year of ‘free cash flow’ optimization for producers, this quarter was the first glimpse into how producers were adjusting to stricter CAPEX budgets and changing shareholder expectations around production. The Anadarko Petroleum takeover loomed large over this quarters’ calls with analysts poking around to determine “who’s next?” On a play-by-play basis, negative gas pricing in the Permian made associated gas a focus this quarter and recent announcements from Midcontinent p… .......


NG MARKET MONITOR | May 17, 2019

CORRECTED: U.S Natural Gas Trade - May 2019

*CORRECTION:* *Figure 3 ("PEMEX Production Levels") in the original report contained inaccurate data. This update corrects that error. No other changes have been made.* _Please note that the next issue of "NG Market Monitor" will be published in early July._ *Canada:* Export capacity and mitigation of AECO pricing disconnects remain a top priority for many large Canadian gas producers, while for smaller producers AECO disconnects have become an existential threat… … .......