SPECIAL REPORT | November 17, 2022

Freeport LNG -- A Recap of the Redacted RCFA

On the evening of November 15, 2022, Freeport LNG released its summary of the independent Root Cause Failure Analysis (RCFA) performed by the IFO Group. Later that same evening, a report from Reuters referenced a redacted copy of the full-length RCFA which was submitted to the Pipeline Hazardous Materials and Safety Administration (PHMSA). We were unable to access the redacted document via the PHMSA’s website directly, but obtained a link thanks to the reporting of Reuters’ Gary McWillia.....

SPECIAL REPORT | October 24, 2022

ESG: A Contributing Factor to Growing Natural Gas Production

On September 30, 2022, the EIA released the Natural Gas Annual (NGA), which provides final 2021 data on supply and demand components for US natural gas balances previously estimated in Natural Gas Monthly (NGM). Among the revisions were upwards adjustments to 2021 US gross natural gas withdrawals (production), which averaged 0.50 bcf/d. US marketed and dry gas production volumes were revised even higher by 0.87 bcf/d and 1.02 bcf/d respectively. The question arises of how can dry production, the.....

SPECIAL REPORT | September 15, 2022

Rail Strike?

A nationwide rail shutdown is set to go into effect as early as 12:01am ET on Friday, marking the first nationwide railroad worker strike since 1992. The consensus view is that a strike will be avoided at the last minute, and we expect the parties involved to extend the negotiation period by another 30 days. However, we do believe that ultimately, a strike is likelier this time than it has been in the past 30 years. In this note, we discuss the process that brought the dispute to this juncture, .....

SPECIAL REPORT | August 19, 2022

Summer 2023: Making the Most of What We Have

The insights afforded through the second quarter earnings calls paved the way for our initial set of US Summer 2023 natural gas balances. In this report, we present our injection season 2023 estimates and highlight a few of the themes we believe will serve as critical factors. One of those factors shows that given the current inefficiencies in producer operations, calculating production growth using historical correlations of drilling and/or fracking activity is likely to lead to an initial unde.....

SPECIAL REPORT | July 06, 2022

ESG - Is That All There Is?

Last Thursday, in a ruling that will also call into question FERC’s assertion of authority under its GHG policy, the U.S. Supreme Court limited the EPA’s ability to regulate climate change. The ruling stated that the EPA must regulate carbon emissions from power plants individually and cannot treat the electricity generating system in each state as a single entity. Hence the ruling effectively kills the possibility of a cap-and-trade program under the Clean Air Act. On the April 14, 2022 episo.....

MARKET INSIGHT | May 25, 2022

The State of the Railroads - A Coal Perspective

The testimonies included in this report were transcribed from the Department of Transportation Surface Transportation Board hearings held on urgent issues in the freight rail service on April 26 and 27, 2022. They are selected specifically due to their relevance in the US coal, power and natural gas markets. Here are some key takeaways: As of 1Q22, 75% of coal-fired power plants have less than 40-day fuel supply to run at full capacity, 20% less than 10 days of fuel in hand. 89% of a utility sur.....

MARKET INSIGHT | March 25, 2022

European Gas Coverage and US' NG Pledge to the EU

NEW PRODUCT! European Natural Gas Flows and Storage What to Expect from President Biden’s Visit to Europe - a Case for Natural Gas LCMC is launching its European natural gas coverage starting with regional flow and storage models. Today's data stats are accompanied by a two-part commentary. The first part focuses on the US-EU meetings taking place in Europe this week. The write-up speculates on a list of topics in natural gas supply security that was likely discussed among the allies and may be .....

SPECIAL REPORT | July 28, 2021

On COVID: The Delta Variant and Children

Earlier today an article titled “How the Delta Variant Could Slow the Economic Recovery” appeared on The New York Times’ main website. [1] The article concludes that “there is no reason to expect a repeat of the huge disruption of 2020. But in terms of the recovery, this may amount to throwing sand in the gears.” We believe that the NYT analysis makes an extremely critical intrinsic assumption: the delta (or a later) variant will have a similar impact on each subgroup of the society as the orig.....

DATA INSIGHT | June 25, 2021

Haynesville: The Private Playbook

Last month, our coverage of US midstream operators’ earnings calls outlined an upside to production volumes through the summer across several US producing basins. We saw this as primarily being driven by private producers, who were poised to take advantage of a win-win scenario: grow production to capture favorable commodity pricing or entice a buyer to consolidate assets in key producing regions. With this in mind, we turned our attention to the Haynesville, which is home to some of the largest.....

DATA INSIGHT | April 23, 2021

Guaranteed Upside to the EIA's NG Production Estimates

A key assumption in the EIA’s current modeling of marketed production uses historical data from 2019 to set flaring rates. When these rates are carried forward, dry production, especially for associated gas plays, is underestimated in 2020 and 2021. In this paper, we walk our readers through the process using the Bakken as a case study and quantify the region's potential error at ~250 mmcf/d.