SPECIAL REPORT | July 28, 2021

On COVID: The Delta Variant and Children

Earlier today an article titled “How the Delta Variant Could Slow the Economic Recovery” appeared on The New York Times’ main website. [1] The article concludes that “there is no reason to expect a repeat of the huge disruption of 2020. But in terms of the recovery, this may amount to throwing sand in the gears.” We believe that the NYT analysis makes an extremely critical intrinsic assumption: the delta (or a later) variant will have a similar impact on each subgroup of the society as the orig.....


DATA INSIGHT | June 25, 2021

Haynesville: The Private Playbook

Last month, our coverage of US midstream operators’ earnings calls outlined an upside to production volumes through the summer across several US producing basins. We saw this as primarily being driven by private producers, who were poised to take advantage of a win-win scenario: grow production to capture favorable commodity pricing or entice a buyer to consolidate assets in key producing regions. With this in mind, we turned our attention to the Haynesville, which is home to some of the largest.....


DATA INSIGHT | April 23, 2021

Guaranteed Upside to the EIA's NG Production Estimates

A key assumption in the EIA’s current modeling of marketed production uses historical data from 2019 to set flaring rates. When these rates are carried forward, dry production, especially for associated gas plays, is underestimated in 2020 and 2021. In this paper, we walk our readers through the process using the Bakken as a case study and quantify the region's potential error at ~250 mmcf/d.


SPECIAL REPORT | March 02, 2020

Insights From The Front Lines of Combating the Coronavirus

Dear , Over the weekend, total lives lost to Covid-19 has passed the 3,000 mark, the U.S. confirmed two deaths from the Coronavirus, and the first case in New York – a Manhattan woman in her 30s – was confirmed . A Dutch hospital was closed to new patients, with existing patients put under a quarantine. Conferences (including CERAWeek ) have been canceled, and staff forced Louvre closure over infection fears. Since mid-January, we have been following epidemiologists to identify leading pro.....


NG MARKET MONITOR | November 22, 2019

U.S. Natural Gas Trade - November 2019

Dear , TC Energy held its 2019 Investor Day in Toronto on Tuesday, November 19. Considering that the company handles ~75% of gas produced in the WCSB, carries ~25% of North American natural gas, and is increasingly involved in the Mexican natural gas pipeline infrastructure projects, we decided to summarize the highlights of the 3.5 hour event in the report. Routine maintenance work can deliver surprises: The Clearwater compressor work, scheduled between October 30 and November 10 was supposed t.....


NG MARKET MONITOR | November 06, 2019

Revisions, revisions...

Dear , Please follow the link below to find our latest NG Market Monitor and balances: The EIA has released its long-awaited Natural Gas Annual (NGA) 2018 last week. The report contains granular and final (more on that later) data for 2018. March 2018 marketed production was raised by more than 1.5 bcf/d, with 1Q18 output getting lifted up by 1.1 bcf/d. The monthly revisions worked both ways though, as the increase for CY 2018 was limited to just 0.25 bcf/d. A quick look at 2019 revisions revea.....


NG MARKET MONITOR | October 18, 2019

U.S Natural Gas Trade - October 2019

Dear , Please follow the link below to find our monthly U.S natural gas trade monitor and balances: Canada: AECO pricing dynamics are changing on low storage inventories and amendments to the NGTL tariff. LNG: A gap between the first and second wave of LNG export projects changes short-term export risks. Mexico: After this summer’s standoff between the CFE and Pipeline companies new private funding for energy projects in Mexico has become increasingly uncertainty.


NG MARKET MONITOR | October 05, 2019

Cybersecurity and Critical Infrastructure

Dear , Please follow the link below to our latest NG Market Monitor and balances. October is the National Cybersecurity Awareness Month (NCSAM), and we decided to take a quick look at the oil, gas, and electricity cybersecurity risks frequently discussed by the U.S Government Accountability Office (GAO) and assess whether the potential impact of such an attack should be priced in... Surprisingly, next year’s US presidential election will provide an extra layer of protection against critical infr.....


NG MARKET MONITOR | September 13, 2019

U.S Natural Gas Trade - September 2019

Canada: The Canada Energy Regulator takes over from the NEB and NGTL tariff amendments have the potential to impact AECO pricing. LNG : While European storage fills, floating storage becomes an increasingly viable option. Mexico: After contentious re-negotiations to natural gas pipeline contracts, President Obrador reaffirmed the need for private sector investment and natural gas in the Mexican economy.


NG MARKET MONITOR | September 06, 2019

Data

The June supply and disposition volumes released by the EIA last week once again required some legwork to internalize. For starters, production came in at 91.2 bcf/d, 1.2 bcf/d higher than what we had anticipated – and well-above the market consensus. The highlight of comparing our balances was the power burn estimate that was practically spot on. We missed residential and commercial demand, which posted their highest June numbers in 6 and 17 years, respectively. Our industrial demand esti.....