NG MARKET MONITOR | October 18, 2019

U.S Natural Gas Trade - October 2019

Dear , Please follow the link below to find our monthly U.S natural gas trade monitor and balances: Canada: AECO pricing dynamics are changing on low storage inventories and amendments to the NGTL tariff. LNG: A gap between the first and second wave of LNG export projects changes short-term export risks. Mexico: After this summer’s standoff between the CFE and Pipeline companies new private funding for energy projects in Mexico has become increasingly uncertainty.


October 2019

The table below shows implied stock change for 2H2019 and Y2020: Highlights from the IEA’s October 2019 Oil Market Report (OMR) The IEA significantly lowered its GDP growth projection by 0.3% to 2.9% for 2019 and by 0.4% to 3.0% for 2020 following the latest release of OECD Interim Economic Outlook, “in theory”, resulting in downward revisions of -135 kb/d to oil demand projections for the remainder of 2019 and -180 kb/d in 2020. With the addition of higher-than-expected US oil consumption in 20.....

NG MARKET MONITOR | October 05, 2019

Cybersecurity and Critical Infrastructure

Dear , Please follow the link below to our latest NG Market Monitor and balances. October is the National Cybersecurity Awareness Month (NCSAM), and we decided to take a quick look at the oil, gas, and electricity cybersecurity risks frequently discussed by the U.S Government Accountability Office (GAO) and assess whether the potential impact of such an attack should be priced in... Surprisingly, next year’s US presidential election will provide an extra layer of protection against critical infr.....

NG MARKET MONITOR | September 13, 2019

U.S Natural Gas Trade - September 2019

Canada: The Canada Energy Regulator takes over from the NEB and NGTL tariff amendments have the potential to impact AECO pricing. LNG : While European storage fills, floating storage becomes an increasingly viable option. Mexico: After contentious re-negotiations to natural gas pipeline contracts, President Obrador reaffirmed the need for private sector investment and natural gas in the Mexican economy.


September 2019

Highlights from the IEA’s September 2019 Oil Market Report (OMR) In this month’s OMR, the IEA kept overall global oil demand and supply balances unchanged despite regional and/or quarterly adjustments. The Agency sees a 0.85 mb/d stock build in the first half of 2019 but a draw of 0.8 mb/d in the second half to reflect “flat OPEC production, stronger demand growth, and weaker non-OPEC supply growth”. However, the IEA warned that the “breather” would be short-lived. As presented in the table abov.....

NG MARKET MONITOR | September 06, 2019


The June supply and disposition volumes released by the EIA last week once again required some legwork to internalize. For starters, production came in at 91.2 bcf/d, 1.2 bcf/d higher than what we had anticipated – and well-above the market consensus. The highlight of comparing our balances was the power burn estimate that was practically spot on. We missed residential and commercial demand, which posted their highest June numbers in 6 and 17 years, respectively. Our industrial demand esti.....

NG MARKET MONITOR | August 16, 2019

U.S Natural Gas Trade - August 2019

This month’s report outlines the highlights from this quarter’s earnings calls, with a specific focus on LNG Exports, Canadian Imports and Mexican Exports.


August 2019

Highlights from the IEA’s August 2019 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) The IEA warned in its latest OMR that oil demand outlook is “fragile” and the risks are skewed to the downside. Global oil consumption growth was cut by -0.1 mb/d for 2019 to 1.1 mb/d and by -0.05 mb/d for 2020 to 1.3 mb/d following lowered global GDP projections posted by the IMF in July and downside risks led by the escalated US-China trade dispute. The slowdown in oil consumption growth is reflected in the Jan-May an.....

NG MARKET MONITOR | August 05, 2019

Thoughts on Balances

Looking back at August 1, the TETCO explosion likely distracted the market’s attention away from what we believe should have been the main topic of the day/week: EIA’s May 2019 balances that were released through the Natural Gas Monthly ( NGM ) the day before… The weakening ethane premium since the beginning of February directionally supports our theory for March and April, but fails to explain our revision-adjusted 0.3 bcf/d underestimation in May…The bigger story is about what has happened.....

NG MARKET MONITOR | July 18, 2019

U.S Natural Gas Trade - July 2019

Mexico: Natural gas pipeline contracts are creating tension in the highest levels of the Mexican government, introducing political risk to our Mexican export forecast… Canada: A proposal to change curtailment methodology and fundamental signals are pointing to future support for AECO prices… LNG : LNG feed gas continues to ramp up…