DATA INSIGHT | November 14, 2013

Weighing In: Implications of 2014 SPGSCI/DJUBS weights for energy commodities

In this note, we assess the potential impact of the 2014 weights (vs. 2013 levels) on index investment in energy commodities for the S&P GSCI and the Dow Jones – UBS commodity indexes.

DATA INSIGHT | October 09, 2013

Something doesn't add up! A review of EIA-914 production in Texas

The EIA -914 Monthly Natural Gas Gross Production Report published by the EIA is the reference document for timely U.S. natural gas production. The estimates in the report are based on the EIA -914 survey, which covers 80-90% of output in the Lower-48. The companies that are selected to participate in the mandatory survey and the multiplier that is calculated to true-up surveyed results to reflect nationwide production are determined using a commercial database sold by DrillingInfo (DI). B.....

MARKET INSIGHT | August 20, 2013

REVISED: NGL Pipes to Drain Marcellus/Utica, Flood the Gulf Coast

The original version of this document contained an error. It quoted the natural gas liquids content of Marcellus/Utica gas stream as 13 gallons per mcf ( GPM ). The correct amount is 6.5 GPM . New JV wants to send unfractionated NGLs to Mont Belvieu Yesterday, MarkWest and Kinder Morgan’s published a letter of intent to build an additional gas processing complex in the Utica shale as well as a large y-grade pipeline to the Gulf coast. The letter reaffirms Mont Belvieu’s dominance in Nor.....

DATA INSIGHT | June 21, 2013

Porous borders: The radical shift in U.S. natural gas trade and its market implications

Our updated weekly natural gas trade statistics report held a surprise: the northeastern U.S. is now a net exporter of natural gas. FERC’s June 14 notice granting El Paso Pipeline final approval to export an incremental 366 mmcf/d at Norte Crossing made the news, but the rapidly changing trade dynamics with Canada makes a bigger difference in balances. With both eastern Canadian and Consuming East U.S. inventories well below their five-year averages, and with utilities’ obligations to fill their.....

SPECIAL REPORT | May 01, 2013

Outlook for Bakken NGLs: Rich gas production is booming in the prairie

If over 150 kb/d of natural gas liquids (NGLs) were extracted in North Dakota this February, where did they go? Official statistics on Bakken NGL production capture less than a third of the market, so in this Special Report we track the products down and compare our model to Energy Information Administration ( EIA ) statistics. We also examine announced midstream infrastructure projects that point to spare take-away capacity through 1Q 2015, which in combination with recently passed legislat.....

SPECIAL REPORT | April 24, 2013

Coal-to-gas switching field manual in the context of the Plant Bowen incident

On April 4, 2013, an explosion rocked the 3,500 MW Plant Bowen generation facility in Georgia. The largest CAPP coal-fired power plant in the country remains shut down as of April 23. In this Special Report, we examine the current economics of running a CAPP coal plant in a southern state and then focus on coal-to-gas switching dynamics between such a plant and a CCGT facility. Finally, we explain why coal-to-gas switching calculations based on front month NYMEX fuel prices can be mislea.....

SPECIAL REPORT | April 04, 2013

A Plausible Path to a Narrow Dec-13 WTI-Brent Arb

Analyzing the feasibility of this increasingly likely scenario In this Special Report, we outline the path that the U.S. oil market would likely need to follow in order for the Dec-13 WTI -Brent spread to expire at -$9/bbl or narrower. Five factors are crucial for this scenario to materialize: (1) rapid growth in rail unloading infrastructure in the U.S. East Coast, (2) continued flows of excess shale oil and condensate from the USGC to Canada, (3) BP Whiting’s 12 Pipestill crude unit runni.....

SPECIAL REPORT | March 28, 2013

Natty is at $4: Keep calm and carry on

Weather trumps it all. A very cold March increased gas burn by 300 bcf, and brought down inventories below the 1.7 tcf mark as we enter the injection season. In the short run, the factors that triggered the bullish rally will prevail and even more bullish news will pour in, most likely in the form of disappointing EIA -914 production reports. In this Special Report, we discuss our views on the sustainability of two key bullish scenarios and explain why we expect the market to turn bearish in th.....

SPECIAL REPORT | March 14, 2013

Northeast Fluid Dynamics and the impact of NGLs on Marcellus and Utica natural gas production

Current midstream investments underway in northern Appalachia suggest over 6 bcf/d of gas processing capacity will be online by the end of this year. Yet, owing to its ~60% ethane content, natural gas production in southwestern Marcellus and Utica will still be limited by the region’s ethane takeaway capacity. In this paper, based on the region’s gas composition, we quantify the impact of ethane extraction on natural gas volumes, provide a ceiling for incremental natural gas production based on .....

SPECIAL REPORT | March 05, 2013

RESEND: Political Crisis in Caracas: Analyzing the Oil Market Implications of a Post-Chavez Venezuela

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez died today at 3:55 pm New York time. In light of the potential significance of this event for the global oil market, we are resending the Special Report that we published on January 10th analyzing the possible political scenarios that may arise in a post-Chavez Venezuela along with their oil market implications. The conclusions presented in the Special Report are still valid, with our base case forecast calling for a continuation of business-as-usual oil policy i.....