GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | August 14, 2018

August 2018

The table below shows implied stock change for 2H18 and 2019: Highlights from the IEA’s August 2018 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) The recent boost in oil output, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, has eased concerns over supply shortages. In July, combined OPEC and non- OPEC compliance rate fell to 97%, exceeding the 100% target agreed in the June meeting. While OPEC July production was kept unchanged MoM at 32.18 mb/d due to a surprising setback in Saudi Arabian output (-100 kb/d MoM), no.....


GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | July 12, 2018

July 2018

The table below shows implied stock change for 2H18 and 2019: Highlights from the IEA’s July 2018 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) The one-pager of the OMR starts with the OPEC and non- OPEC agreement and reminds us that 100% compliance in production cuts will actually result in increasing output. Despite the meeting date in late June (22nd), the IEA implies that the decision was made earlier and June 2018 supply growth of 370 kb/d was driven by Russia and Saudi Arabia’s ramp up to reach.....


GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | June 13, 2018

June 2018

The table below shows implied stock change for 2018 and – in the case of the IEA and the EIA – 2019: Highlights from the IEA’s June 2018 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) Today’s OMR was the most exciting IEA report we’ve read in a while. In addition to publishing the agency’s 2019 balances for the first time, it also included headlines like “bigger is better” (talking about West Texas pipelines) and scenarios. The IEA is concerned about the potential impact of further supply losses in.....


GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | May 16, 2018

May 2018

The table below shows implied stock change for 2018 and – in the case of the EIA – 2019: Highlights from the IEA’s May 2018 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) The IEA has dropped 2018 global demand from 99.3 mb/d to 99.2 mb/d this month, and year-on-year growth from 1.5 mb/d to 1.4 mb/d. That change, however, is not reflected in OMR data tables as 2017 global demand was also revised lower, keeping annual demand growth flat for 2018. This drop in demand growth was “largely attributable” to.....


GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | April 13, 2018

April 2018

The table below shows implied stock change for 2018 and – in the case of the EIA – 2019: Highlights from the IEA’s April 2018 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) IEA’s 2018 global demand growth expectation remained flat at +1.5 mb/d in this month’s OMR . Within the OECD , strong 1Q18 demand – primarily driven by colder US weather and the start-up of a petchem project – was offset by weaker growth in 2Q and 3Q. Outside the OECD , however, despite a strong showing by India, soft Chinese data ca.....


GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | March 15, 2018

March 2018

The table below shows implied stock change for 2018 and – in the case of the EIA – 2019: Highlights from the IEA’s March 2018 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) This month’s OMR revised 2018 global demand higher by +0.1 mb/d again. Having published a +1.3 mb/d forecast for 2018 at the beginning of the year, the Agency now sees demand growth at +1.5 mb/d. This revision is attributed to “strong early data”, where an uptick of +240 kb/d OECD demand growth is partially balanced by a drop of -.....


GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | February 13, 2018

February 2018

The table below shows implied stock change for 2018 and – in the case of the EIA – 2019: Highlights from the IEA’s February 2018 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) With its annual five-year outlook (“Oil 2018: Analysis and Forecast to 2023”, f/k/a the Medium-Term Oil Market Report) in the works for a March 5 release, the IEA published an abbreviated version of the OMR this month. The agency acknowledges that revised and newly available data point to slightly tighter balances for the e.....


GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | January 19, 2018

Global Oil Recap and Balances: January 2018

The table below shows implied stock change for 2018 and – in the case of the EIA – 2019: Highlights from the IEA’s January 2018 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) This month’s OMR focused on a review of 2017 dynamics, a discussion of IEA’s increased 2018 production expectations in the Americas along with demand destruction risk introduced by $70/bbl price level. As the products market returned to an oversupply mode in 4Q17 with record-high global refinery runs, crude balances tightened dram.....


GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | December 14, 2017

Global Oil Recap and Balances: December 2017

The table below shows implied stock change for the October 2017-December 2018 period: Highlights from the IEA’s December 2017 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) IEA and EIA expect non- OPEC supply excluding FSU to grow by +1.6 mb/d in 2018, while OPEC’s forecast calls for a jump of +1.1 mb/d. That differential helps explain why OPEC’s 2018 balances show a sharp drop in stocks, while the IEA and EIA show a small build. 2018 OECD demand is the other key line item where the balances.....


GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | November 14, 2017

Global Oil Recap and Balances: November 2017

The table below shows implied stock change for the November 2017-December 2018 period: Highlights from the IEA’s November 2017 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) Earlier this morning, the IEA made an attempt to take the punch bowl away. While remaining cognizant of “supply disruptions, geopolitical concerns, a growing expectation that the OPEC /non- OPEC output accord will be extended through 2018” as well as robust demand growth, the agency argued that “the market balance in 2018 does not l.....