SPECIAL REPORT
| November 17, 2022
Freeport LNG -- A Recap of the Redacted RCFA
On the evening of November 15, 2022, Freeport LNG released its summary of the independent Root Cause Failure Analysis (RCFA) performed by the IFO Group. Later that same evening, a report from Reuters referenced a redacted copy of the full-length RCFA which was submitted to the Pipeline Hazardous Materials and Safety Administration (PHMSA). We were unable to access the redacted document via the PHMSA’s website directly, but obtained a link thanks to the reporting of Reuters’ Gary McWillia.....
SPECIAL REPORT
| October 24, 2022
ESG: A Contributing Factor to Growing Natural Gas Production
On September 30, 2022, the EIA released the Natural Gas Annual (NGA), which provides final 2021 data on supply and demand components for US natural gas balances previously estimated in Natural Gas Monthly (NGM). Among the revisions were upwards adjustments to 2021 US gross natural gas withdrawals (production), which averaged 0.50 bcf/d. US marketed and dry gas production volumes were revised even higher by 0.87 bcf/d and 1.02 bcf/d respectively. The question arises of how can dry production, the.....
SPECIAL REPORT
| September 15, 2022
Rail Strike?
A nationwide rail shutdown is set to go into effect as early as 12:01am ET on Friday, marking the first nationwide railroad worker strike since 1992. The consensus view is that a strike will be avoided at the last minute, and we expect the parties involved to extend the negotiation period by another 30 days. However, we do believe that ultimately, a strike is likelier this time than it has been in the past 30 years. In this note, we discuss the process that brought the dispute to this juncture, .....
SPECIAL REPORT
| August 19, 2022
Summer 2023: Making the Most of What We Have
The insights afforded through the second quarter earnings calls paved the way for our initial set of US Summer 2023 natural gas balances. In this report, we present our injection season 2023 estimates and highlight a few of the themes we believe will serve as critical factors. One of those factors shows that given the current inefficiencies in producer operations, calculating production growth using historical correlations of drilling and/or fracking activity is likely to lead to an initial unde.....
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| July 21, 2022
July 2022
The table below shows implied stock changes for 3Q22-4Q23 based on assumptions of: 1) OPEC participants’ target crude output under the current agreement and keep it at the August 2022 level through the forecast period. 2) Exempted 3 countries: maintain June 2022 Iranian and Venezuelan output for the forecast period; For Libya, assuming 0.85 mb/d in 3Q22 and 1.2 mb/d for the remainder of the forecast period. Please find below the link to this month's Global Oil Recap and Balances Report .....
SPECIAL REPORT
| July 06, 2022
ESG - Is That All There Is?
Last Thursday, in a ruling that will also call into question FERC’s assertion of authority under its GHG policy, the U.S. Supreme Court limited the EPA’s ability to regulate climate change. The ruling stated that the EPA must regulate carbon emissions from power plants individually and cannot treat the electricity generating system in each state as a single entity. Hence the ruling effectively kills the possibility of a cap-and-trade program under the Clean Air Act. On the April 14, 2022 episo.....
MARKET INSIGHT
| May 25, 2022
The State of the Railroads - A Coal Perspective
The testimonies included in this report were transcribed from the Department of Transportation Surface Transportation Board hearings held on urgent issues in the freight rail service on April 26 and 27, 2022. They are selected specifically due to their relevance in the US coal, power and natural gas markets. Here are some key takeaways: As of 1Q22, 75% of coal-fired power plants have less than 40-day fuel supply to run at full capacity, 20% less than 10 days of fuel in hand. 89% of a utility sur.....
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| May 16, 2022
May 2022
The table below shows implied stock changes for 2Q22-4Q23 based on assumptions of: 1) OPEC participants’ target crude output under the current agreement, increasing +0.254 mb/d every month (at 100% compliance) from August 2021 until it unwinds all supply cuts by September 2022, and keep at September 2022 level through the forecast period. 2) Exempted 3 countries: maintain April Iranian and Venezuelan output for the forecast period. For Libya, assuming 1.02 mb/d in 2Q22 and 1.1 mb/d in 2H.....
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| April 14, 2022
April 2022
The table below shows implied stock changes for 2Q22-4Q23 based on assumptions of: 1) OPEC participants’ target crude output under the current agreement, increasing +0.254 mb/d every month (at 100% compliance) from August 2021 until it unwinds all supply cuts by September 2022, and keep at September 2022 level through the forecast period. 2) Exempted 3 countries: maintain March output for the forecast period. Please find below the link to this month's Global Oil Recap and Balances Report , whic.....
MARKET INSIGHT
| March 25, 2022
European Gas Coverage and US' NG Pledge to the EU
NEW PRODUCT! European Natural Gas Flows and Storage What to Expect from President Biden’s Visit to Europe - a Case for Natural Gas LCMC is launching its European natural gas coverage starting with regional flow and storage models. Today's data stats are accompanied by a two-part commentary. The first part focuses on the US-EU meetings taking place in Europe this week. The write-up speculates on a list of topics in natural gas supply security that was likely discussed among the allies and may be .....