GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| April 11, 2013
April 2013
Please find attached a PDF file with official oil supply and demand projections from the IEA , OPEC , and the US DOE .
SPECIAL REPORT
| April 04, 2013
A Plausible Path to a Narrow Dec-13 WTI-Brent Arb
Analyzing the feasibility of this increasingly likely scenario In this Special Report, we outline the path that the U.S. oil market would likely need to follow in order for the Dec-13 WTI -Brent spread to expire at -$9/bbl or narrower. Five factors are crucial for this scenario to materialize: (1) rapid growth in rail unloading infrastructure in the U.S. East Coast, (2) continued flows of excess shale oil and condensate from the USGC to Canada, (3) BP Whiting’s 12 Pipestill crude unit runni.....
SPECIAL REPORT
| March 28, 2013
Natty is at $4: Keep calm and carry on
Weather trumps it all. A very cold March increased gas burn by 300 bcf, and brought down inventories below the 1.7 tcf mark as we enter the injection season. In the short run, the factors that triggered the bullish rally will prevail and even more bullish news will pour in, most likely in the form of disappointing EIA -914 production reports. In this Special Report, we discuss our views on the sustainability of two key bullish scenarios and explain why we expect the market to turn bearish in th.....
SPECIAL REPORT
| March 14, 2013
Northeast Fluid Dynamics and the impact of NGLs on Marcellus and Utica natural gas production
Current midstream investments underway in northern Appalachia suggest over 6 bcf/d of gas processing capacity will be online by the end of this year. Yet, owing to its ~60% ethane content, natural gas production in southwestern Marcellus and Utica will still be limited by the region’s ethane takeaway capacity. In this paper, based on the region’s gas composition, we quantify the impact of ethane extraction on natural gas volumes, provide a ceiling for incremental natural gas production based on .....
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| March 13, 2013
March 2013
Please find attached a PDF file with official oil supply and demand projections from the IEA , OPEC , and the US DOE .
SPECIAL REPORT
| March 05, 2013
RESEND: Political Crisis in Caracas: Analyzing the Oil Market Implications of a Post-Chavez Venezuela
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez died today at 3:55 pm New York time. In light of the potential significance of this event for the global oil market, we are resending the Special Report that we published on January 10th analyzing the possible political scenarios that may arise in a post-Chavez Venezuela along with their oil market implications. The conclusions presented in the Special Report are still valid, with our base case forecast calling for a continuation of business-as-usual oil policy i.....
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| February 15, 2013
February 2013
Please find attached a PDF file with official oil supply and demand projections from the IEA , OPEC , and the US DOE .
SPECIAL REPORT
| February 14, 2013
The M13 WTI-Brent Spread: We expect a -$14/bbl June arb in a highly volatile environment
In this Special Report, we argue that a new era of the WTI -Brent spread has arrived, marked by the shift of the U.S. crude bottleneck from the Midcontinent to the U.S. Gulf Coast, and discuss its main characteristics. We then provide a detailed analysis of U.S. production forecasts, current and planned infrastructure in the Midcontinent and the U.S. Gulf Coast ( USGC ), and imports and refinery utilization rate data in order to estimate the level at which the June 2013 WTI -Brent arb is likel.....
SPECIAL REPORT
| February 13, 2013
Associated Gas: How far could it take us?
Long considered an inconvenience (or worse) in oil drilling, associated gas can make or break a bullish natural gas market in the second half of 2013. In this Special Report , we will quantify our expectations of 2013 incremental associated gas volumes. We believe the biggest bullish risk for late 2013 comes not from supply demand balances in a business as usual scenario, but rather the shifting structure of fundamental risk. Demand risk has always centered around peak winter months, and with i.....
DATA INSIGHT
| February 11, 2013
U.S. Oil Production in Detail: Breaking down production dynamics in the big three plays
In this Data Insight , we introduce our oil production models for the big three oil plays in the U.S. Calculated at the monthly level, output from each field that make up the Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Permian plays will be presented by quarter to minimize noise. Our models integrate decline curve analysis, drilling activity, efficiency gains and other information made available by producers and service companies currently active in these plays. These forecasts will be updated on a continuous basi.....