DATA INSIGHT | February 06, 2013

Missing in Action: The story behind the 770 kb/d missing from Texas RRC balances

In this Data Insight , we provide an explanation for the massive discrepancies in Texas oil production volumes as reported by different government agencies. Production volumes published by the federal Energy Information Administration show consistently higher output compared to those posted by the Texas Railroad Commission — the state agency that regulates the oil and gas industry. In October 2012, the discrepancy exceeded 770 kb/d. We tracked the mismatch to production coming from wells under .....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | January 18, 2013

January 2013

Please find attached a PDF file with official oil supply and demand projections from the IEA , OPEC , and the US DOE .

DATA INSIGHT | December 19, 2012

Bite Worse Than Bark? Implications of low real yields and recent IMF research on fiscal cuts

The real 10-year Treasury yield registered a historical low of -0.87% on October 4, and set a new record low again recently (-0.88% on December 6). Recent research by the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) has indicated that fiscal multipliers have been higher in advanced economies since the Great Recession. We highlight this new evidence along with the fact that investors are letting the US government borrow at real negative interest rates in this note. At the same time, we assess the implicat.....

MARKET INSIGHT | December 17, 2012

RESEND: Whiting, We Have a Problem... Analyzing the Reported Delay in BP Whiting's Modernization Project

(Please note that we are resending the report that we published last Friday.) Earlier this morning, a news story reported that the timeline for the completion of the work on the 12 Pipestill CDU in the BP Whiting refinery had been delayed due to construction problems. In this Market Insight, we describe how this new information has changed our outlook for the refinery’s operations that we presented in a previous Special Report (“The Enigmatic BP Whiting”). We now believe that there is a high.....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | December 12, 2012

December 2012

Please find attached a PDF file with official oil supply and demand projections from the IEA , OPEC , and the US DOE . In its Oil Market Report for the month of December, published today, the IEA increased its forecast for 4Q12 global oil demand by +435 kb/d compared to the previous report’s assessment. The agency cited better-than-expected preliminary demand data for October and “signs of improving Chinese sentiment” for the change. The IEA also estimated that OPEC crude supply ros.....

SPECIAL REPORT | November 29, 2012

The Enigmatic BP Whiting: Could The Refinery Be Running Light Sweet Crude Next Summer?

The recent shutdown of the largest crude distillation unit ( CDU ) at BP’s Whiting refinery has the potential to impact the evolution of the WTI forward curve given that the facility draws a large share of its inputs from Cushing. The exact timing and circumstances for the restart of the CDU , however, remain unclear given that the company has not disclosed much of this information. In this Special Report, we outline three possible scenarios for the timeline of the BP Whiting upgrading projec.....

DATA INSIGHT | November 15, 2012

Weighing In: Implications of 2013 SPGSCI/DJUBS weights for energy commodities

In this note, we assess the potential impact of the 2013 weights (vs. 2012 levels) on index investment in energy commodities for the S&P GSCI and the Dow Jones – UBS commodity indexes.

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | November 14, 2012

November 2012

Please find attached a PDF file with official oil supply and demand projections from the IEA , OPEC , and the US DOE . In its Oil Market Report for the month of November, published yesterday, the IEA estimated that OPEC crude supply fell to a nine-month low in October, decreasing by -30 kb/d to 31.15 mb/d due to a decline in production in Nigeria. However, this drop was more than offset by a rebound in non- OPEC supply of +840 kb/d month-on-month in part due to seasonal maintenance i.....

DATA INSIGHT | November 14, 2012

LLS Market Update

PADD 3 light sweet imports continue to post year-on-year declines In this Data Insight, we provide an update on the recent behavior of the LLS market from two perspectives. First, we disaggregate the latest EIA data on crude imports to the United States and comment on the volatility present amidst the secular decline of light sweet imports in the U.S. Gulf Coast ( USGC ). Second, we discuss the evolution of the LLS -Brent and LLS -Maya spreads.

MARKET INSIGHT | October 26, 2012

Another hurricane threat to the U.S. Northeast

Refining disruption could further depress already low product stocks Hurricane Sandy is on track to make landfall in the U.S. Northeast early next week. In this Market Insight, we highlight the potential market disruptions that the storm may cause and draw a comparison to the impact of Hurricane Irene last year. As we note, several factors could make the market more volatile this time, especially given the low levels of products inventories in the region.