SPECIAL REPORT | January 20, 2010

Cold Play: Degree day momentum should factor into upcoming natural gas demand

Please find attached the latest LCM Special Report: Cold play Degree day momentum should factor into upcoming natural gas demand This report illustrates how very cold and very hot temperatures can influence heating and cooling demand even after the weather moderates. This dynamic should provide a boost for natural gas consumption following the very cold weather that predominated from December through mid-January.

SPECIAL REPORT | January 14, 2010

The New Normal 100114

Please find attached the latest issue of LCMC Special Report 100114: The New Normal Stronger US distillate demand but gasoline demand destruction point to crude builds Regards, Daniel Ahn

SPECIAL REPORT | January 04, 2010

LCM Quarterly Report: Exit Strategies

Please find attached latest LCM Quarterly Report. Exit Strategies Assessing markets on the road to recovery The Quarterly’s sections include: Follow the Exit Signs: Daniel Ahn’s look at exit strategies across economies with uneven global recovery We Shale Overcome: Teddy Kott’s overview of the prospects for US natural gas production techniques to spread to Europe China’s Emerging Refining Overcapacities: Robbert van Battenberg and Edward Morse examine the impact of development.....

SPECIAL REPORT | December 23, 2009

When Push Comes to Shove: Why typical storage arithmetic does not explain the recent natural gas inventory surprise

IN THE COMMODITIES SPACE, STANDARD PERCEPTIONS OF STORAGE DYNAMICS RELY ON BASIC ARITHMETIC: SUPPLY MINUS DEMAND EQUALS THE CHANGE IN INVENTORIES. Simply put, this math is inviolable. But in the US natural gas market, some key assumptions about the physical dynamics underlying this equation are not. Reconsidering these assumptions can help to shed light on the past two EIA storage reports, which revealed inventory withdrawals well in excess of expectations and left the market grasping for expla… .......

SPECIAL REPORT | December 17, 2009

Seasonal Tidings 20091217

Please find attached the latest issue of Special Report: Seasonal Tidings What’s expected in early 2010 oil markets? As 2009 closes and 2010 begins, the oil market is likely to be impacted by the same contradictory forces that have pushed oil into price bands through much of 2010. Undoubtedly next year will begin with bearish data: even if January demand will almost certainly be higher than in 2009, it is almost certainly going to be significantly lower than this month. Oil imports into th.....

SPECIAL REPORT | December 07, 2009

Peeking Past Peak O

Please find attached the latest issue of The Week Ahead. Peeking Past Peak Oil?h1. Iraq’s Upstream Round Offers New Promises, as do Nigeria, Russia and Venezuela h2. SHORT - TERM AND LONGER - TERM MEET THIS WEEK , AS BAGHDAD OPENS YET MORE RESERVES FOR INTERNATIONAL EXPLOITATION . The country’s second round of licensing upstream acreage follows by less than a half year the country’s first opening to foreign investors in a third of a century. The initial round, whic.....

DATA INSIGHT | December 03, 2009

Hot Potato: Impending global natural gas glut is playing games with cross-Atlantic spreads

WHAT JUST TWO YEARS AGO WAS A TUG-OF-WAR HAS BECOME A GAME OF HOT POTATO AND INTERNATIONAL NATURAL GAS SPREADS ARE RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY. As global liquefaction capacity continues to expand and core demand on both sides of the Atlantic plods along, neither of the two most liquid gas markets are clamoring for additional supply. The spread between summer 2010 Henry Hub and NBP contracts flipped this week, restoring the traditionally seasonal US premium that had prevailed until 2006. As the two m… .......

SPECIAL REPORT | December 02, 2009

China Syndrom

THE PREVAILING MARKET CONSENSUS THAT CHINA’S SURPRISINGLY LARGE PRODUCT DEMAND GROWTH WILL TIGHTEN MARKETS QUICKLY IS DISTRACTING FROM A MORE PRESSING ISSUE – the threat of China’s looming refining overcapacity to OECD refining. China’s refining sector is poised to follow the familiar path of China’s industrialization, whereby massive investment in a key industry transforms a structural shortage first into balance and soon thereafter to overcapacity, prompting a surge in exports that make it in… .......

SPECIAL REPORT | November 30, 2009

The Russian Bear Stirs: Gazprom supported global natural gas markets

THIS YEAR, FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2001, RUSSIA WILL NOT BE THE WORLD’S MOST PROLIFIC NATURAL GAS PRODUCER. That mantle will fall to the US, where production has proven resilient despite dramatically lower drilling activity. Russia, meanwhile, throttled back its output considerably early this year as domestic demand withered and European customers reduced offtake. Though the probability of another shutoff of gas flowing through Ukraine has sparked considerable debate, the magnitude and timing … .......

SPECIAL REPORT | November 24, 2009

Erratum: LCM Special Report 091124: Commodity Index Rebalancing and Implications for ETFs

Unfortunately, we have noticed a slight typo on the Special Report, “That Time of Year” released this morning. In Figures 14 to 16 at the back of the report, the rows labeled Brent should be labeled as Gas Oil, and vice versa. Attached is a corrected copy. Our sincere apologies for this error. Thanks, Daniel