EARNINGS CALLS | April 02, 2019

Oil and Gas Producers (4Q 2018)

“Organic” and “local” do not belong to the list of words commonly used in E&P earnings calls. Yet, both terms came up this quarter to describe changing attitudes towards supply and demand, respectively. Producers “living within their means” are lowering leveraged CAPEX , focusing on free cash flow, share buybacks, reducing costs and finding capital efficiencies in order to grow organically . And in certain cases – such as the Marcellus – they are also focusing on local demand growth to find .....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | March 15, 2019

March 2019

The table below shows implied stock change for 2019 and 2020: Highlights from the IEA’s March 2019 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) With the IMF lowering its 2019 global GDP projection to 3.5% (down by -0.2%), the IEA acknowledges that the “economic sentiment is becoming more pessimistic and the global economy could be entering a vulnerable period.” The Agency approaches the economic vulnerability discussion from a supply shock perspective, praising the available spare capacity which wa.....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | February 13, 2019

February 2019

The table below shows implied stock change for 2019 and 2020: Highlights from the IEA’s February 2019 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) We got an abbreviated version of the OMR this month. The IEA shows 2018 demand growth at 1.3 mb/d, with China (0.44 mb/d), India (0.21 mb/d) and the US (0.54 mb/d) contributing 1.19 mb/d of the total. Demand in 2019 is unchanged from last month at 1.4 mb/d. Yet even when we plug in lower OPEC supply of 30.83 mb/d into the table above, IEA’s 2019 stock ch.....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | January 22, 2019

January 2019

The table below shows implied stock change for 2019 and 2020: Highlights from the IEA’s January 2019 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) The IEA believes that the latest OPEC + supply reduction agreement has put a floor under prices, “at least for now”. Prior to the cuts, OPEC 1 has reduced crude output by 0.59 mb/d MoM in December, led by Saudis with a -0.42 mb/d drop and “unplanned outages in Iran and Libya.” January will see Saudi production at an even lower 10.2 mb/d, 0.11 mb/d below it.....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | December 13, 2018

December 2018

The table below shows implied stock change for 4Q18 and 2019: Highlights from the IEA’s December 2018 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) With impact of lower prices largely cancelling out minor downward revisions in global economic growth and significant reduction in Venezuelan and Turkish oil demand, the IEA revised global oil demand lower by -0.04 mb/d for 2018 and -0.02 mb/d for 2019. Following IMF’s projection – “a contraction in real GDP growth of 18% in 2018 and 5% in 2019, while infl.....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | November 14, 2018

November 2018

The table below shows implied stock change for 4Q18 and 2019: Highlights from the IEA’s November 2018 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) Coupled with Iranian sanction waivers issued by the US, the IEA sees global oil stock builds to average 0.7 mb/d in 4Q18 as increasing output from Russia, the Middle East and US more than offset declines in Iranian and Venezuelan volumes at a faster-than-expected pace. With the assumption of OPEC crude production remaining at October level of 32.99 mb/d i.....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | October 12, 2018

October 2018

The table below shows implied stock change for 2H18 and 2019: Highlights from the IEA’s October 2018 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) The oil market is growing – there is headroom for supply growth that will be matched by a boost in demand, primarily driven by petchem demand. That’s a key takeaway from the OMR as expressed in the first paragraph of the overview. The rest of the report explains the nuances in that blanket statement such as why the demand outlook was revised lower this month.....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | September 14, 2018

September 2018

The table below shows implied stock change for 2H18 and 2019: Highlights from the IEA’s September 2018 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) The IEA warns of a tighter oil market and higher oil prices if Venezuelan and Iranian supply decline further. Venezuelan crude production dropped by -20 kb/d to 1.24 mb/d in August, to only half of its January 2016 level. The nation is still facing difficulties in pumping and exporting oil. At the end of 2018, Venezuelan output could fall to 1 mb/d if current.....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | August 14, 2018

August 2018

The table below shows implied stock change for 2H18 and 2019: Highlights from the IEA’s August 2018 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) The recent boost in oil output, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, has eased concerns over supply shortages. In July, combined OPEC and non- OPEC compliance rate fell to 97%, exceeding the 100% target agreed in the June meeting. While OPEC July production was kept unchanged MoM at 32.18 mb/d due to a surprising setback in Saudi Arabian output (-100 kb/d MoM), no.....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | July 12, 2018

July 2018

The table below shows implied stock change for 2H18 and 2019: Highlights from the IEA’s July 2018 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) The one-pager of the OMR starts with the OPEC and non- OPEC agreement and reminds us that 100% compliance in production cuts will actually result in increasing output. Despite the meeting date in late June (22nd), the IEA implies that the decision was made earlier and June 2018 supply growth of 370 kb/d was driven by Russia and Saudi Arabia’s ramp up to reach.....