DOE CRUDE STATS | November 12, 2009

Lowest seasonal runs since 1996 can't mop up product stocks

DOE CRUDE STATS November 12, 2009 Lowest seasonal runs since 1996 can’t mop up product stocks It’s hard to find something to cheer about in today’s DOE midweek stats. Refiners across the country dropped crude oil runs another 145k b/d to 13.825m b/d, nearly 1m b/d under the last five-year average and 638k b/d under last year’s very low level. Gross refinery utilization has now fallen below 80%. Even so, with demand falling on both a weekly and 4-week average basis across all main pr.....

DOE CRUDE STATS | November 04, 2009

Of little imports

DOE CRUDE STATS November 4, 2009 Of little imports Today’s headline bullish inventory numbers were driven by incredibly low crude oil import volumes, but the math doesn’t quite add up when taken in context with very low refinery runs for the week. On the demand side, the weekly 620k b/d increase in total apparent demand hinged on a 430 kb/d jump in the “Other” category while distillate demand continues to limp along. Major data points: Crude oil inventories: Down 3.94m bbl vs. exp.....

DOE CRUDE STATS | October 28, 2009

A hint of strength in distillate demand, but is it seasonal?

DOE CRUDE STATS October 28, 2009 A hint of strength in distillate demand, but is it seasonal? Major data points: Crude oil inventories: Up 778k bbl vs. expectations of a 1.91m bbl build. Builds in PADD I, II (except Cushing) and V; 1.5m bbl draw in PADD III . Gasoline inventories: Built 1.619 m bbls, vs. expectations of a 1m bbl draw. Distillate inventories: Drew 2.134m bbls vs. expectations of a 1m bbl draw. Refinery runs: Up 133k b/d to 81.8% utilization (rise of 0.2.....

DOE CRUDE STATS | October 21, 2009

Imports and runs laying low

DOE CRUDE STATS October 21, 2009 Imports and runs laying low The story remains virtually unchanged from last week: low imports and low runs. Imports failed to bounce back and hovered around 8.7m b/d for the second week in a row and runs again clocked in just below 14.1m b/d. Yet crude stocks built by 1.31m bbl rather than the 334k bbl build from last week; not surprisingly, missing crude barrels jumped by ~1m bbl to 1.3m bbl. On the demand front, the numbers looked particularly poor an.....

DOE CRUDE STATS | October 15, 2009

Refinery Runs and the Inventory Treadmill

DOE CRUDE STATS October 15, 2009 Refinery Runs and the Inventory Treadmill The big gasoline and distillate draws may have captured the headlines, but this week’s story is largely one of imports and runs. Total commercial crude and product inventories fell for the first time in a month, by 5.8m bbl, but most of this drop can be accounted for by imports rather than by a shift in fundamentals. Crude oil imports were down 367k b/d, including a 665k b/d drop east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, .....

DOE CRUDE STATS | October 07, 2009

Stats for all seasons, for bulls, bears and skeptics

DOE CRUDE STATS October 7, 2009 Stats for all seasons, for bulls, bears and skeptics This week’s stats provide everyone’s market view support for their market prejudices. Total product demand is down in both the weekly (-0.93%) and 4-week average (-1.04%) data, but light product demand for finished gasoline and distillate fuel oil demand is up in the weekly data (by a combined 280k b/d or 5.03%. Bulls will argue that this is a clear sign of increase in consumer demand and a reflection .....

DOE CRUDE STATS | September 30, 2009

Some Minor Corrections

DOE CRUDE STATS September 30, 2009 Some Minor Corrections This week’s stats appear largely driven by mild corrections from last week’s big moves. Demand numbers recovered a bit after last week’s miserable showing, import numbers retreated a bit after last week’s jump. So taken in conjunction with last week’s report, demand still appears to be moving sideways and total commercial inventories continue to build. Major data points: Crude oil inventories: Up 2.8m bbl vs. expectations o.....

DOE CRUDE STATS | September 23, 2009

Shifting stocks

DOE CRUDE STATS September 23, 2009 Shifting stocks Last week, we noted that the crude inventory drawdown since early August reflected a seasonal norm and that the real test would begin in late-December, when crude stocks typically begin to build into the winter. This week, market expectations centered on a 1.4m bbl draw, but stats indicate that the seasonal turnaround has begun, with a 4.85m bbl crude build east of the Rockies (2.9m bbl including the West-Coast draw) and another 0.5m b.....

DOE CRUDE STATS | September 16, 2009

No big changes

DOE CRUDE STATS No big changes Just like last week, today’s EIA stats show crude stocks continuing to fall seasonally while product stocks remain robust (particularly for distillate) and demand continues to look weak. Major data points: Crude oil inventories: Down 4.7m bbls, vs. expectations of a 2.5m bbl draw, with nearly the entire draw in PADD II (Midcontinent), concentrated in Cushing, which was down 3.7m bbl. Gasoline inventories: Up 547k bbl vs expectations of a 700k bb.....

DOE CRUDE STATS | September 10, 2009

More of the same

DOE CRUDE STATS September 10, 2009 More of the same Another week of data and another week of weak demand and of product stocks replacing crude stocks. A huge headline crude draw of 5.9m bbl was offset by gasoline and distillate inventories building roughly 2m bbl each. A big drop in imports into the Gulf Coast helped to accentuate the crude draw in that region while demand continues to look weak. Year-on-year comparisons have become less meaningful at this point because of the major h.....