DOE CRUDE STATS | September 23, 2009

Shifting stocks

DOE CRUDE STATS September 23, 2009 Shifting stocks Last week, we noted that the crude inventory drawdown since early August reflected a seasonal norm and that the real test would begin in late-December, when crude stocks typically begin to build into the winter. This week, market expectations centered on a 1.4m bbl draw, but stats indicate that the seasonal turnaround has begun, with a 4.85m bbl crude build east of the Rockies (2.9m bbl including the West-Coast draw) and another 0.5m b.....

DOE CRUDE STATS | September 16, 2009

No big changes

DOE CRUDE STATS No big changes Just like last week, today’s EIA stats show crude stocks continuing to fall seasonally while product stocks remain robust (particularly for distillate) and demand continues to look weak. Major data points: Crude oil inventories: Down 4.7m bbls, vs. expectations of a 2.5m bbl draw, with nearly the entire draw in PADD II (Midcontinent), concentrated in Cushing, which was down 3.7m bbl. Gasoline inventories: Up 547k bbl vs expectations of a 700k bb.....

DOE CRUDE STATS | September 10, 2009

More of the same

DOE CRUDE STATS September 10, 2009 More of the same Another week of data and another week of weak demand and of product stocks replacing crude stocks. A huge headline crude draw of 5.9m bbl was offset by gasoline and distillate inventories building roughly 2m bbl each. A big drop in imports into the Gulf Coast helped to accentuate the crude draw in that region while demand continues to look weak. Year-on-year comparisons have become less meaningful at this point because of the major h.....

DOE CRUDE STATS | September 02, 2009

Statistical Cross-Over

DOE CRUDE STATS September 2, 2009 Statistical Cross-Over This week’s data represents the start of positive year-on-year comparisons for the US petroleum sector. Some of the cross-over is an accidental artifact of last year’s hurricane season. Thus crude oil refinery runs, crude oil imports, crude oil days of forward demand cover, gasoline deliveries and total apparent product demand have all made the crossing. In other respects the market is still in a sideways move. The two positive.....

CFTC COT | August 28, 2009

August 28, 2009

Please find attached a summary of the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders Report for WTI , Natural Gas, RBOB and Heating Oil.

DOE CRUDE STATS | August 26, 2009

August 26, 2009

DOE CRUDE STATS August 26, 2009 Crude stocks are cleaning up, demand is not…yet Those who were expecting a big crude build based on yesterday’s API numbers were disappointed with a meager 128k bbl growth in US crude inventories with a 1.9 m bbl draw east of the Rockies. While US crude inventories have certainly returned to near the historical range, crude draws are the norm for this time of year. The next three weeks will be more telling about the state of the market as crude draws .....

CFTC COT | August 20, 2009

Small Steps on the Road to Regulatory Reform

TODAY WAS A BIG DAY FOR REGULATORY REFORM IN THE US AND MORE BROADLY INTERNATIONALLY. Three separate steps were taken that move forward the agenda of the Obama Administration for financial regulatory reform. US regulator CFTC and UK regulator FSA announced a new agreement providing for more granular oversight of trading on both the NYMEX and ICE related to trades of look-alike contracts on the ICE electronic exchange and that enables regulators of each exchange direct access to exchanges in ea… .......

DOE CRUDE STATS | August 19, 2009

Late-Summer Waves

DOE CRUDE STATS August 19, 2009 Late-Summer Waves The two bullish takes from today’s US Department of Energy/ EIA stats are the exceptional draw in crude oil and gasoline inventories in the face of declining imports, and the apparent w-o-w jump reached in peak summer demand. Both should be transient phenomenon. The crude oil draw of 8.4m bbls was previewed by yesterday’s API data release, showing the draw of 6.13m bbls. In both cases, the major cause was a phenomenal drop in impor.....

DOE CRUDE STATS | August 12, 2009

Dry Summer Heave?

DOE CRUDE STATS August 12, 2009 Dry Summer Heave? If ever a set of statistics warrants a mid-summer price correction, look to this week’s EIA data release. Virtually every data point on which market bulls have been hanging have soured. Week-on-week apparent demand has fallen by 580k b/d (3.03%) to 18.7, b/d, and with the exception of last week’s surge, remains trendless for the bulk of this summer (the 4-week average of demand across products is essentially unchanged). Declines were .....

DOE CRUDE STATS | August 05, 2009

August 05, 2009

DOE CRUDE STATS August 5, 2009 Song Sung Blue The draw in product inventories as reported in today’s EIA petroleum data report reflects refiner margin management rather than a demand story. US refinery utilization fell to 14.434m b/d, a drop of 670k b/d in throughput since runs peaked at 15.1m b/d in early July. Without that drop in runs, main product inventories would have built. Meanwhile, crude oil stocks built counter-seasonally for the third week in a row, this week by 1.6m bbls.....