CFTC COT | July 16, 2010

July 16, 2010

Please find attached stats and charts detailing investor positions in WTI , natural gas, heating oil, and RBOB , as indicated by the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report. We focus on non-commercial positions as well as the money manager positions in the CFTC’s newer disaggregated report. By and large, investors exited the commodities space again during the week ending July 13. In WTI , non-commercial net longs came back up after hitting their lowest point in a year last week. Net lon.....

DOE CRUDE STATS | July 14, 2010

Pulling out the rug on gasoline

DOE CRUDE STATS July 14, 2010 Pulling out the rug on gasoline There is a lot to digest in this week’s EIA report. Overall, the stats undermine gasoline prices (and should pressure the distillate market as well), indicating a bit of over-exuberance about the traditional peak of the US driving season. Major data points: Crude oil inventories: Drew by -5.06m bbl, vs. expectations of a -1.5m bbl draw, due to a 4.76m bbl draw in PADD III (Gulf Coast). Crude stocks have dropped 10.....

CFTC COT | July 09, 2010

July 09, 2010

Please find attached stats and charts detailing investor positions in WTI , natural gas, heating oil, and RBOB , as indicated by the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report. We focus on non-commercial positions as well as the money manager positions in the CFTC’s newer disagreggated report. By and large, investors exited the commodities space during the week ending July 6. In WTI , non-commercial net longs hit their lowest point in a year. Net longs dropped by 31k to 43k in futures only.....

DOE CRUDE STATS | July 08, 2010

Distillates bounce back

DOE CRUDE STATS July 8, 2010 Distillates bounce back Total US apparent demand more than recovered its losses from last week, increasing by 600 kb/d to 19.56 mb/d. But while last week’s losses were concentrated in Other Oils, distillate demand (+400 kb/d) drove an increase in apparent principal product demand. At 15.37 mb/d, principal product demand touched its highest point since Mar09. Major data points: Crude oil inventories: Drew by -4.96m bbl, vs. expectations of a -2m bbl dra.....

CFTC COT | July 02, 2010

July 02, 2010

Please find attached stats and charts detailing the latest CFTC report’s data regarding non-commercial and money manager positions in WTI , natural gas, heating oil, and RBOB . Non-commercial net longs in WTI declined 11.5k in futures only and 14.8k in futures and options combined, as traders reduced long positions while increasing shorts (aggregating futures and swaps). At 129k (fut, swaps, and options), the non-commercial net long position is at its lowest point since Sep09. Non-commer.....

DOE CRUDE STATS | June 30, 2010

Another gasoline rope-a-dope?

DOE CRUDE STATS June 30, 2010 Another gasoline rope-a-dope? Gasoline demand is showing its first glimmers of life since the spring. With US consumer expenditures reaching record highs, this could be a signal of spending finally filtering through to the gasoline market. But such proclamations were prevalent in the spring, when strong weekly data belied weak underlying fundamentals. And as yesterday’s DOE monthly data release for Apr10 reiterated, skeptics were correct to be wary of th.....

CFTC COT | June 25, 2010

June 25, 2010

Please find attached stats and charts detailing non-commercial net long positions for WTI , natural gas, heating oil, and RBOB as indicated by the CFTC’s Commitments of Traders report. Net longs in WTI fell -2.4k in futures only to 86k and -18k to 152k in futures and options combined ( NYMEX futures, NYMEX swaps, and ICE swaps), with slightly larger declines among money managers. Net length in natural gas declined as well, falling by 9.4k to 130k in futures and options combined ( NYM.....

DOE CRUDE STATS | June 23, 2010

Refiner restraint vs. weak gasoline demand

DOE CRUDE STATS June 23, 2010 Refiner restraint vs. weak gasoline demand This week’s stats continue to indicate very weak gasoline demand along with distillate demand that continues to reflect economic recovery. Refiners have responded to relatively stronger distillate margins by boosting distillate output while dialing back on gasoline production, somewhat mitigating the gasoline inventory glut. But in lending a modicum of support to gasoline prices, refiners are also undermining the .....

CFTC COT | June 18, 2010

June 18, 2010

Please find attached a summary detailing the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders Report. The PDF file includes stats and graphs regarding non-commercial net length for WTI crude oil, natural gas, RBOB , and heating oil for the week ending June 15. In WTI , non-commercial net length increased by 28.8k contracts to 88.4k in futures only and by 24.8k to 170.8k in futures and options combined (summing NYMEX futures and swaps with ICE swaps). Looking to the disaggregated data, money mana.....

DOE CRUDE STATS | June 16, 2010

Mixed signals for product markets

DOE CRUDE STATS June 16, 2010 Mixed signals for product markets In this week’s DOE stats, inventory numbers and apparent demand numbers seem to be whispering different messages to product markets. While the gasoline inventory surplus declined slightly, apparent demand numbers remain historically very weak. Meanwhile, commercial distillate storage continues to surge but apparent distillate demand remains well ahead of year-ago levels and even within shouting distance of pre-recession .....