DOE CRUDE STATS | March 03, 2010

March 03, 2010

DOE CRUDE STATS March 3, 2010 Few constructive data points This week’s stats largely extend the stories that have prevailed over the past three weeks – weak demand relative to recent history, recovering runs along with imports, and still-high inventories relative to historical norms (especially in terms of days forward cover). Despite lower gasoline and distillate production y-o-y, and much lower imports in the case of gasoline, weak demand has prevented product stocks from cleaning up.....

DOE CRUDE STATS | February 24, 2010

Temporary strength in gasoline demand and imports

DOE CRUDE STATS February 24, 2010 Temporary strength in gasoline demand and imports The weekly jump in apparent gasoline demand should be ephemeral as this week’s number likely reflected pent up deliveries that had been delayed by the prior week’s snowstorms that had paralyzed the mid-Atlantic. Runs climbed to a four-month high, but may have a bit more room to grow, particularly in PADD III . Imports also hit a similar high, but should fall back below 9 mb/d following this week’s te.....

DOE CRUDE STATS | February 18, 2010

Running out of gasoline demand

DOE CRUDE STATS February 18, 2010 Running out of gasoline demand The overall weakness in gasoline demand jumps out in this week’s numbers. Major data points : Crude oil inventories: Built by 3.085m bbl vs. expectations of a 1.725m bbl build, on the back of a 4.7m bbl build in PADD III (Gulf Coast). Cushing stocks drew 0.71m bbl, accounting for nearly the entire PADD II (Midcontinent) draw for the week. Gasoline inventories: Increased 1.62m bbl, in line with the expected 1.....

DOE CRUDE STATS | February 12, 2010

More of the same

DOE CRUDE STATS February 12, 2010 More of the same Not much has changed in this week’s EIA report as US balances continue to look weak in virtually every respect except for crude imports. Demand for major light products continues to languish, though distillate balances do look to be improving relative to gasoline balances. Major data points: Crude oil inventories: Built by 2.42m bbl vs. expectations of a 1.6m bbl build, but with a 1.5m bbl build in PADD V, inventories east of .....

DOE CRUDE STATS | February 03, 2010

Runs downhill

DOE CRUDE STATS February 3, 2010 Runs downhill Some noise in the recent EIA data may have dissipated in this week’s report. Over the past couple of weeks, we’ve noted that the crude draws seemed excessively large given reported domestic production, imports, and refinery runs. In light of this week’s refining and import arithmetic, the +2.3m bbl crude build looks inconsistent with the prior 2-3 weeks of data but far more in line with data toward the end of last year. Apart from this s.....

DOE CRUDE STATS | January 27, 2010

2010 01 27

DOE CRUDE STATS January 27, 2010 Product demand weak, but where is the crude going? The surprise counter-seasonal headline crude draw was attributable in part to a dramatic drop in crude imports into PADDIII but the missing barrels puzzle noted last week has worsened with 1.5m bbls of this week’s crude draws unaccounted for by imports, production, and runs. Total apparent demand has grown, but the promising surge in apparent distillate demand noted last week has choked back, while ga.....

DOE CRUDE STATS | January 21, 2010

Distillate getting up off the canvas?

DOE CRUDE STATS January 21, 2010 Distillate getting up off the canvas? This week’s data imply enough missing barrels to make us suspicious of the headline surprise crude draw. The import, production, and refining numbers simply do not add up in this report. Demand numbers are starting to indicate improving distillate demand while gasoline consumption continues to languish. Moreover, with the distillate draw distributed across all grades, the data may be showing signs of economic-led d.....

DOE CRUDE STATS | January 13, 2010

Imports bounce back while demand languishes

DOE CRUDE STATS January 13, 2010 Imports bounce back while demand languishes Today’s headline crude build may have come in higher than expectations, but the 3.7m bbl inventory build was driven by the expected jump in crude imports following the New Year. Imports east of the Rockies bounced back by nearly 700k b/d in the first week of 2010, largely due to a 530m b/d increase of flows into the Gulf Coast. US imports reached 8.9m b/d for the week, the second-highest number since the begin.....

DOE CRUDE STATS | January 06, 2010

A New Years Hangover Can't Stop the Party

DOE CRUDE STATS January 6, 2010 A New Years Hangover Can’t Stop the Party This weeks’ EIA report kicked the New Year off on a bearish fundamental note, but the market seems unconcerned. The price shaved approximately $1 immediately after the stats release, but has since rallied nearly $2. Though product supplied numbers were bound to fall after the pre-holiday shipments ahead of Christmas and New Years, the demand numbers are quite weak, particularly for gasoline. The inventory numb.....

DOE CRUDE STATS | December 30, 2009

This Week's DOE Stats

DOE CRUDE STATS Attached is a summary of this week’s DOE oil statistics. Summary: Crude oil Inventories (-1538k bbls vs. Bloomberg expectations of -1850k bbls) Gasoline inventories (-366k bbls, vs. expectations of +1000k bbls) Distillate Inventories (-2055k bbls vs. expectations of -2225k bbls; of this -1817 was in heating oil) Cushing Stocks (-194k bbls) Refinery Utilization (+.28% to 80.3%) Yields: Gasoline 65%; Distillate 26.7% Crude oil imports up 320k b/d to 8.027m b/d De.....