DOE CRUDE STATS | August 19, 2009

Late-Summer Waves

DOE CRUDE STATS August 19, 2009 Late-Summer Waves The two bullish takes from today’s US Department of Energy/ EIA stats are the exceptional draw in crude oil and gasoline inventories in the face of declining imports, and the apparent w-o-w jump reached in peak summer demand. Both should be transient phenomenon. The crude oil draw of 8.4m bbls was previewed by yesterday’s API data release, showing the draw of 6.13m bbls. In both cases, the major cause was a phenomenal drop in impor.....

DOE CRUDE STATS | August 12, 2009

Dry Summer Heave?

DOE CRUDE STATS August 12, 2009 Dry Summer Heave? If ever a set of statistics warrants a mid-summer price correction, look to this week’s EIA data release. Virtually every data point on which market bulls have been hanging have soured. Week-on-week apparent demand has fallen by 580k b/d (3.03%) to 18.7, b/d, and with the exception of last week’s surge, remains trendless for the bulk of this summer (the 4-week average of demand across products is essentially unchanged). Declines were .....

DOE CRUDE STATS | August 05, 2009

August 05, 2009

DOE CRUDE STATS August 5, 2009 Song Sung Blue The draw in product inventories as reported in today’s EIA petroleum data report reflects refiner margin management rather than a demand story. US refinery utilization fell to 14.434m b/d, a drop of 670k b/d in throughput since runs peaked at 15.1m b/d in early July. Without that drop in runs, main product inventories would have built. Meanwhile, crude oil stocks built counter-seasonally for the third week in a row, this week by 1.6m bbls.....

CFTC COT | July 31, 2009

July 31, 2009

Please find attached a summary of the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders Report. The net non-commercial long position in WTI grew by 2.4k to 4.6k in futures and by 4.8k to 77.4k in futures and options combined as both long and short positions increased. The net non-commercial short position in natural gas grew by 2.5k to 161k in futures and by 2k to 74.6k in futures and options combined. Meanwhile, the net long position in RBOB futures gained 12.2k to 54.2k and in HO 7.1k to reach 29......

DOE CRUDE STATS | July 29, 2009

Correction

DOE CRUDE STATS July 29, 2009 The Song Remains the Same US crude oil inventories were erroneously referred to as having drawn rather than built in the second paragraph. It has been corrected. The story within this week’s DOE stats is largely a continuation of last week’s, only more bearish for crude. The data indicated a whopping 5.15m bbl build in crude inventories, keeping alive the API’s recent streak of directionally accurate (and bearish) data. Just as last week’s 3.8m bbl cru.....

DOE CRUDE STATS | July 29, 2009

The Song Remains the Same

DOE CRUDE STATS July 29, 2009 The Song Remains the Same The story within this week’s DOE stats is largely a continuation of last week’s, only more bearish for crude. The data indicated a whopping 5.15m bbl build in crude inventories, keeping alive the API’s recent streak of directionally accurate (and bearish) data. Just as last week’s 3.8m bbl crude draw in PADD V distorted the numbers, this week’s 2.3m bbl build in PADD V biased the headline number upward. But even discounting .....

CFTC COT | July 24, 2009

July 24, 2009

Please find attached a summary of today’s CFTC Commitment of Traders Report. The non-commercial net long WTI position is now negligible for futures, dropping to 2.2k from 16.2k last week as short positions increased by 11.6k. The net long position in futures and options, however, is more substantial at 72.6k contracts, down from 82.3k last week. Not too much change in the net short non-commercial position in natural gas, dropping from 165k contracts to 158.4 in futures and from 74k to 72.....

DOE CRUDE STATS | July 22, 2009

The California Head Fake

DOE CRUDE STATS The California Head Fake This week’s DOE stats are almost as bearish as yesterday’s data from the API . Headline API data showed a huge crude oil and product build of 3.1m bbls for crude oil and over 1.3m bbls for gasoline. Eliminate the huge 3.8m bbl crude oil stock draw in PADD V from the DOE data and the rest of the US built 1.8m bbls. The other import-sensitive districts built significantly – 924k bbls in PADD I and 1.633m bbls in PADD III . That’s in li.....

CFTC COT | July 17, 2009

July 17, 2009

Today’s CFTC Commitment of Traders Report indicated little change in net non-commercial positions in WTI . Net length in futures only grew by just 800 lots to 16k while net length in futures and options combined increased by just 412 to 82k with both short and long positions growing by roughly the same amount. Non-commercial players reduced their long and short positions in natural gasincreased their net short position in natural gas by 4k to 164k contracts in futures and by nearly 5k to 74.....

DOE CRUDE STATS | July 15, 2009

July 15, 2009

DOE CRUDE STATS July 15, 2009 Summer Sideways Shuffle While there may be hidden signals in today’s “Weekly Petroleum Status Report” from the US EIA / DOE , the main conclusion is that not much has changed from the prior week. There is no discernible improvement in product demand trends, no sign either that motorists are driving more or that industrial demand is growing. A slight increase in weekly deliveries of/apparent demand for distillates has no impact on four-week averages, and, .....