DOE CRUDE STATS
| April 20, 2011
Gasoline's spring cleaning
Gasoline inventories are in the spotlight again this week, drawing -1.6m bbl to come to 51.3m bbl and chalking up the eighth straight week of declines. The draw brings the last two weeks’ inventory drop to 8.8m bbl, after last week’s exceptional -7.0m bbl draw. Gasoline stocks now stand 16.8m bbl lower yoy. Despite the stock draw, apparent gasoline demand declined 0.12 mb/d to 9.06 mb/d. Four-week average gasoline demand remains depressed below even the weak levels of 2009, due in part to the fa.....
DOE CRUDE STATS
| April 13, 2011
Gasoline's vanishing act
The most notable data point from this week’s DOE stats was a whopping -7.0m bbl draw in total gasoline stocks, the largest since Oct. 1998, which reduced US gasoline storage to 209.7m bbl. Although a gasoline draw this time of year is hardly unusual—US inventories of the product have been on a continuous weekly decline since Feb. 11—the size of the draw may be extraordinary enough to give pause to predictions that sky-high retail prices around the country have destroyed gasoline demand. But th.....
DOE CRUDE STATS
| April 06, 2011
Pain at the pump?
Apparent demand gasoline demand weakened this week, falling 112 kb/d below year-ago levels on a four-week average basis. Domestic mogas demand may be sitting on shaky ground—a fact that may have been obscured recently in the weekly data by strong exports. Although a drop in exports may be partly responsible for the fall in apparent demand, economic forces are likely dampening domestic gasoline demand, such as soaring retail prices and a hurting American consumer. Meanwhile, crude production in t.....
DOE CRUDE STATS
| March 30, 2011
Cushing springs forward
Cushing stocks leapt +1.7m bbl higher to 41.9m bbl, the highest since the DOE begin keeping records at the NYMEX pricing hub in 2004. Stocks now sit 1.6m bbl higher than the previous record of two weeks ago and eclipse year-ago levels by a full 11.0m bbl. Although the past 5 weeks have witnessed a sharp build in Cushing inventories, the scale of the build is comparable to a similar build last year that took place from mid-March through mid-May. But relative to that build, this year’s is off .....
DOE CRUDE STATS
| March 23, 2011
Gasoline on the March
DOE CRUDE STATS Gasoline on the March Headline gasoline inventories drew a whopping -5.3m bbl this week, reflecting apparent demand that has recovered substantially since early February and is now comfortably within the pre-recession range. The drop in total gasoline storage is the latest in a -21.4m bbl slide over the last five weeks. Finished mogas stocks drew -1.7m bbl to 67.0m bbl. While the drop in gasoline inventories is typical on a seasonal basis, the rate of the draw has been fa.....
DOE CRUDE STATS
| March 16, 2011
An undemanding week for products
DOE CRUDE STATS An undemanding week for products Motor gasoline and distillate stocks fell this week, though crude saw a net build, as runs increased and crude imports poured into PADD III . Total commercial inventories in the US drew -5.1m bbl, owing to the general decline in product stocks. US commercial inventories have declined rapidly since their peak this year of 1.08b bbl the first week of February, which was an all-time seasonal high. Apparent finished motor gasoline demand fe.....
DOE CRUDE STATS
| March 09, 2011
Pushing Cushing Upwards
DOE CRUDE STATS Pushing Cushing upwards This week’s data showed stock levels at Cushing surging to a new high as total US crude stocks built +2.5m bbl, while apparent distillate demand increased and apparent gasoline demand remained strong on the week. Cushing storage built +1.69m bbl, though total stocks in PADD II were flat. The fact that Cushing built even before maintenance season gets fully underway bodes ill for containment issues moving into the springtime, when inventories at t.....
DOE CRUDE STATS
| March 02, 2011
Cognitive dissonance
DOE CRUDE STATS Cognitive dissonance This week’s EIA report provides a set of distinctly mixed messages. Overall US commercial petroleum inventories continued to fall to Earth, but Cushing and PADD II crude stocks reached new highs once more. Midcontinent refiners are taking advantage of big WTI discounts and trying to stave off the impending maintenance season, US refiners more broadly are plunging into the depths of a significant maintenance season. Total apparent demand (product.....
DOE CRUDE STATS
| February 24, 2011
Midcontinent maintenance
DOE CRUDE STATS Midcontinent maintenance This week’s apparent demand estimates show gasoline and distillate moving in opposite directions, with gasoline up 290 kb/d on the week and distillate down 330 kb/d. Though these estimates would be suggestive of impending gasoline strength, we are taking them with a grain of salt as they cover a period ahead of a holiday weekend, when refiners were likely to push additional gasoline out to wholesalers and to dial back distillate sales a bit (appar.....
DOE CRUDE STATS
| February 16, 2011
Conspiracy theories
DOE CRUDE STATS Conspiracy theories From the demand estimates to storage numbers, this week’s EIA stats are filled with interesting points. Apparent demand for key products gained considerably as drivers enjoyed a week devoid of major snowstorms. The storage numbers should grab most attention, particularly the +250k bbl build at Cushing, which should continue to weigh on the front of the WTI curve. The opening of the Keystone extension to Cushing will likely garner most credit for ri.....