DOE CRUDE STATS
| December 16, 2009
Stats in three words: weather, PADD3 and Runs
DOE CRUDE STATS December 16, 2009 Stats in three words: Weather, PADD III and Runs Today’s DOE headline stats, like last week’s, are decidedly bullish. But a closer look gives another story. On the demand side, principal products are up 550k b/d in the weekly data and 110k b/d on a 4-week moving average basis. But the bulk of the demand increase is in distillate fuel oil and jet-kero. The distillate demand reflects cold weather rather than a surge in GDP , while the jet-kero d.....
DOE CRUDE STATS
| December 09, 2009
Trade Confirmations
DOE CRUDE STATS Trade confirmations. Today’s DOE stats are confirming changes in flat price and term structures over the past week. In the face of a headline bullish crude oil stock draw of 3.82m bbls, PADD II crude oil inventories built 2.77m bbls, and the critical Cushing hub added 2.46m bbls of PADD II’s build. At 33.35m bbls, Cushing inventories are just shy of the 34.92m bbls reached last February and on their way to a new record, perhaps testing the limits of Cushing storage c.....
DOE CRUDE STATS
| December 02, 2009
Harder and Harder
DOE CRUDE STATS December 2, 2009 Harder and Harder It’s getting harder and harder to see a positive trend in US demand. It’s even harder to find a sign of a reduction in crude or product inventories, let alone a draw that would indicate that refiners are able to do much to improve their margins. But it’s especially hard to look at weekly US DOE / EIA data on stocks and balances and conclude that there is something new to say that hasn’t been said about the US petroleum sector. Majo.....
DOE CRUDE STATS
| November 25, 2009
An uneventful holiday week
DOE CRUDE STATS November 25, 2009 An uneventful holiday week Reflecting recovering activity from Hurricane Ida’s disruption to the Gulf of Mexico, this week’s EIA report revealed few suggestions of shifting fundamentals in the market. Imports recovered along the Gulf coast and returned to higher levels than before the storm pushed through, bringing US imports to within shouting distance of 9m b/d for the first time since early Oct. Meanwhile demand stats enjoyed a weekly bounce, but .....
DOE CRUDE STATS
| November 18, 2009
Hurricane Ida prompts a pause
DOE CRUDE STATS November 18, 2009 Hurricane Ida prompts a pause This week’s EIA report did not yield many surprises with Hurricane Ida reducing imports and domestic production. Demand grew 190k b/d w-o-w but continues to look anemic on a four-week moving average basis and refiners kept runs low, falling just below 13.8m b/d. And although Ida caused massive beach erosion along the eastern seaboard, the mountain of distillate inventories shows no sign of wearing down. Major data poi.....
DOE CRUDE STATS
| November 12, 2009
Lowest seasonal runs since 1996 can't mop up product stocks
DOE CRUDE STATS November 12, 2009 Lowest seasonal runs since 1996 can’t mop up product stocks It’s hard to find something to cheer about in today’s DOE midweek stats. Refiners across the country dropped crude oil runs another 145k b/d to 13.825m b/d, nearly 1m b/d under the last five-year average and 638k b/d under last year’s very low level. Gross refinery utilization has now fallen below 80%. Even so, with demand falling on both a weekly and 4-week average basis across all main pr.....
DOE CRUDE STATS
| November 04, 2009
Of little imports
DOE CRUDE STATS November 4, 2009 Of little imports Today’s headline bullish inventory numbers were driven by incredibly low crude oil import volumes, but the math doesn’t quite add up when taken in context with very low refinery runs for the week. On the demand side, the weekly 620k b/d increase in total apparent demand hinged on a 430 kb/d jump in the “Other” category while distillate demand continues to limp along. Major data points: Crude oil inventories: Down 3.94m bbl vs. exp.....
DOE CRUDE STATS
| October 28, 2009
A hint of strength in distillate demand, but is it seasonal?
DOE CRUDE STATS October 28, 2009 A hint of strength in distillate demand, but is it seasonal? Major data points: Crude oil inventories: Up 778k bbl vs. expectations of a 1.91m bbl build. Builds in PADD I, II (except Cushing) and V; 1.5m bbl draw in PADD III . Gasoline inventories: Built 1.619 m bbls, vs. expectations of a 1m bbl draw. Distillate inventories: Drew 2.134m bbls vs. expectations of a 1m bbl draw. Refinery runs: Up 133k b/d to 81.8% utilization (rise of 0.2.....
DOE CRUDE STATS
| October 21, 2009
Imports and runs laying low
DOE CRUDE STATS October 21, 2009 Imports and runs laying low The story remains virtually unchanged from last week: low imports and low runs. Imports failed to bounce back and hovered around 8.7m b/d for the second week in a row and runs again clocked in just below 14.1m b/d. Yet crude stocks built by 1.31m bbl rather than the 334k bbl build from last week; not surprisingly, missing crude barrels jumped by ~1m bbl to 1.3m bbl. On the demand front, the numbers looked particularly poor an.....
DOE CRUDE STATS
| October 15, 2009
Refinery Runs and the Inventory Treadmill
DOE CRUDE STATS October 15, 2009 Refinery Runs and the Inventory Treadmill The big gasoline and distillate draws may have captured the headlines, but this week’s story is largely one of imports and runs. Total commercial crude and product inventories fell for the first time in a month, by 5.8m bbl, but most of this drop can be accounted for by imports rather than by a shift in fundamentals. Crude oil imports were down 367k b/d, including a 665k b/d drop east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, .....