LCMC AGS MONTHLY NEWSLETTER
| May 02, 2022
No38 - Corn - 2nd May22
Dear , Please find below the link to our latest report, this week on Corn. Key points: - In Heuristics and Biases in Military Decision Making, Major Blair S. Williams discusses, among other concepts, the human tendency to misjudge probability and equilibrium sequence. Using the example of roulette at a casino, he writes: “the following three sequences of red and black could occur: RBRBRB or RRRBBB or RBBBBB. Which sequence is more likely? The answer is that all of these sequences are equally lik.....
LCMC AGS MONTHLY NEWSLETTER
| April 19, 2022
No37 - Corn - 19th Apr22
Dear , Please find below the link to our latest report, this week on Corn. Key points: - In his book The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver argues that in the “science of prediction”, finding patterns is easy in any kind of data-rich environment. However, it is a subtle task to determine whether the patterns represent noise or signal. In that attempt, the author relates to Thomas Bayes – an English Presbyterian minister, philosopher and statistician born in 1702 – and his work on the theory of pr.....
LCMC AGS MONTHLY NEWSLETTER
| April 05, 2022
No36 - 5th Apr22
Dear , Please find below the link to our latest report, this week on Oilseed. Key points: - It is generally accepted that commodity markets are driven by greed and fear, two emotions that at times can drive prices beyond fundamental valuations. War is certainly one of those moments. In his trading courses, W.D. Gann wrote the following: “1939, September. Hitler started the war and war is always bullish on wheat and you should always buy when war starts. May wheat was selling around 62.5 in Augus.....
LCMC AGS MONTHLY NEWSLETTER
| March 27, 2022
No35 - Global Grain
Dear , Please find below the link to our latest report, this week on Global grains. Key points: - In 2010, a study called ‘Overcoming status quo bias in the human brain’ by S. Fleming, C. Thomas and R. Dolan looked at the decision-making of 16 participants taking part in a tennis 'line-judgement' game while their brains were scanned using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). The participants were asked to look at a tennis ball landing in a court on a computer screen while holding down a.....
LCMC AGS MONTHLY NEWSLETTER
| March 17, 2022
No34 - Corn
Dear , Please find below the link to our latest report, this week on Corn. Key points: - In his book The Wisdom of Crowds, James Surowiecki explains the mechanism through which a crowd's “collective intelligence” is able to produce better outcomes than a small group of experts. "Ask a hundred people to answer a question or solve a problem, and the average answer will often be at least as good as the answer of the smartest member". The author refers to a famous experiment conducted in 1884 at the.....
LCMC AGS MONTHLY NEWSLETTER
| March 09, 2022
No33 - Ukraine - Corn
Dear , Please find below the link to our latest report, this week on Global grains. Key points: - In 2010, a study called ‘Overcoming status quo bias in the human brain’ by S. Fleming, C. Thomas and R. Dolan looked at the decision-making of 16 participants taking part in a tennis 'line-judgement' game while their brains were scanned using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). The participants were asked to look at a tennis ball landing in a court on a computer screen while holding down a.....
LCMC AGS MONTHLY NEWSLETTER
| March 01, 2022
No32 - Ukraine - Corn
Dear , Please find below the link to our latest report, this week on Ukraine / Corn ! Key points: -More than 130 years after Nikolai Gogol – born in Velyki Sorochyntsi, a village located in the region of Poltava, at the heart of the Ukrainian Corn Belt – completed his beautiful tale, I arrived to live and work in Mykolaiv, a port city located on a peninsula in Ukraine’s steppe region along the estuary of the Southern Bug River. It is a strategic grain exporting hub, accounting for 28-29% of tota.....
LCMC AGS MONTHLY NEWSLETTER
| February 21, 2022
Wheat - 21st Feb22
Dear , Please find below the link to our latest report, this week on Wheat ! Mehdi Chaouky / Erel-Antoine Goren Speak soon. Erel-Antoine Goren +33 (0)1 78 95 92 33 icechat: eagoren1
LCMC AGS MONTHLY NEWSLETTER
| February 10, 2022
Corn
Dear , Please find below the link to our latest report, this week on Corn ! Key points: - In his book The Black Swan, N.N. Taleb discusses about the problem of silent evidence, or the human tendency to view historical evidence with a filter that choses only the positive elements that support one’s narrative while ignoring the elements that may contradict such narrative. The author illustrates such concept with the following musing tale: “more than two thousand years ago, the Roman orator … Marcu.....
LCMC AGS MONTHLY NEWSLETTER
| February 01, 2022
No29 : Soybeans
Dear , Please find below the link to our latest report, this week on Soybeans ! Key points: - Soybean prices continue to increase on the back of worsening production estimates in South America, strong demand from US crushing facilities which struggle to find sufficient material, expansion of drought conditions in the US High Plains, and skyrocketing vegetable oil prices in the wake of logistical constraints and multi-year high prices in crude oil. - On that topic, it is worth noting palm oil pri.....