DATA INSIGHT | July 25, 2012

Reading the Tea Leaves: Outlining our expectations for the FOMC

The Fed’s extension of Operation Twist during its Federal Open Market Committee ( FOMC ) meeting on June 19-20 did not come as a surprise. In this note, we illustrate a probable course of action for the Fed during the next FOMC meeting on July 31-August 1 after taking into account the deterioration in US macroeconomic data and growth outlook since April.

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | July 12, 2012

July 2012

Please find attached a PDF file with official oil supply and demand projections from the IEA , OPEC , and the US DOE . In its Oil Market Report for the month of June, published today, the IEA slightly decreased its global oil demand estimate for 2012 by -0.02 mb/d, from 89.91 mb/d to 89.89 mb/d. While demand forecasts for 3Q12 and 4Q12 were adjusted down, demand for 2Q12 was up mainly due to higher Japanese and Indian oil consumption than initially reported. The agency also estimated th.....

DATA INSIGHT | July 12, 2012

The Dance Continues: Nuances exist but commodity correlations remain high

With any leftover optimism from earlier this year having evaporated (the IMF is expected to lower its 2012 global growth estimate to around 3.0% in August from 3.5% in April), we take a look at current levels of commodity index investment and commodity correlations in this update of our note from last August, and provide a view on the likely path of commodity correlations going forward.

MARKET INSIGHT | July 10, 2012

Norway's labor conflict is over... Or is it?

Another workers’ strike could take place later this year The Norwegian government’s intervention in the labor dispute in the oil sector resolved the imminent threat of a full production shutdown in the Norwegian North Sea. Following the news, today’s trading session saw Brent prices fall and the time spreads on the front end lose their gains from the previous session. However, there is yet another labor conflict in the Norwegian oil industry that remains unresolved and could threaten an additi.....

SPECIAL REPORT | June 25, 2012

U.S. Crude Is Moving East: Implications for RBOB cracks, the WTI-Brent arb, and LLS discounts

Part 2 of our Special Report on the RBOB market examines the impact of rising crude flows from the U.S. Midcontinent to the Northeast in light of refinery acquisitions and additions in PADD 1 and around the world. Cheap domestic crude may afford East Coast refineries the profitability they need to stay in business and keep the New York Harbor products market well supplied. Yet, the simultaneous expansion of overseas refining capacity threatens to put stronger and more sustained downward pres.....

SPECIAL REPORT | June 16, 2012

Saudi Succession Politics: A Primer

What to expect after Crown Prince Nayef’s death Earlier today, Saudi Crown Prince Nayef passed away, reopening the question of royal succession in the world’s largest oil-exporting country. In this Special Report, we provide an overview of the norms of succession in Saudi Arabia and highlight the events to look out for in the upcoming days and weeks. Prince Salman, Nayef’s full brother and the current Minister of Defense, is widely expected to be selected as King Abdullah’s crown prince; yet, .....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | June 13, 2012

June 2012

Please find attached a PDF file with official oil supply and demand projections from the IEA , OPEC , and the US DOE . In its Oil Market Report for the month of June, published today, the IEA slightly decreased its global oil demand estimate for 2012 by -0.06, from 89.97 mb/d to 89.91 mb/d. The agency also estimated that OPEC crude supply in May dropped by -20 kb/d to 31.87 mb/d. Meanwhile, the OPEC Secretariat, in its latest Monthly Oil Market Report, published yesterday, kept it.....

SPECIAL REPORT | June 05, 2012

The RBOB Gasoline Market: Part 1, Overview and Short-Term Outlook

After posting a strong 1Q12, RBOB prices are currently facing downward pressures. This Special Report provides an overview of the structure of the RBOB market and estimates the short-term impact of refinery shutdowns and planned midstream capacity additions in RBOB supply and demand balances in the New York Harbor trading hub. The second part of this report, to be published later this month, will analyze the impact of recent refinery acquisitions and planned processing capacity additions o.....

SPECIAL REPORT | May 23, 2012

The Final Countdown? Why a Greek exit would likely lead to the euro’s demise

The continued survival of Greece within the Eurozone was probably going to be considerably dependent on the June 17 fresh elections even if recent referendum suggestions hadn’t been made. In this note, we outline why a Greek exit could very well lead to the disbanding of the euro (in current form) in the longer term.

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | May 11, 2012

May 2012

Please find attached a PDF file with official oil supply and demand projections from the IEA , OPEC , and the US DOE . In its Oil Market Report for the month of May, published today, the IEA slightly increased its global oil demand estimate for 2012 by +0.09 mb/d, from 89.88 mb/d to 89.97 mb/d. The agency also estimated that OPEC supply in April rose by +410 kb/d to 31.85 mb/d. In its Short-Term Energy Outlook, issued on Tuesday, the EIA increased its projection for global oil dem.....