DATA INSIGHT | December 01, 2011

Queasy Consumption: 3Q consumption likely led by lower savings and higher credit

Media reports about bumper Black Friday sales and the actual relative improvement in 3Q real personal consumption expenditure ( PCE ) have been fodder for suggesting that consumers are getting their groove back, raising hopes that the US economy is on its way out of the woods. • While US economic data has held up comparatively well in general, a detailed look reveals a disconnect between real personal income and consumption. • The improvement in personal consumption likely stemmed from a dip.....

SPECIAL REPORT | November 17, 2011

Seaway: A sea change in logistics and structure?

The reversal of the Seaway pipeline, announced today, sent front-month WTI prices above $100/bbl for the first time since July. This special report analyzes the likely effect of the news on planned incremental midstream capacity in the United States as well as the possible impact on the term structure of WTI futures.

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | November 10, 2011

November 2011

The IEA released its monthly Oil Market Report today. It revised global oil demand down by -0.07 mb/d for 2011 and by -0.01 mb/d for 2012, primarily due to lower consumption among OECD countries. On the supply side, the IEA increased its forecast for non- OPEC supply for 2012 by +0.10 mb/d. The EIA’s monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook, released on Tuesday, also revised global oil demand down for 2011 (-0.17 mb/d) and 2012 (-0.22 mb/d). In addition, the agency’s 2012 forecast for non- OPE.....

SPECIAL REPORT | November 01, 2011

Derailed? An ongoing labor dispute threatens crude oil shipments by rail

A labor dispute between rail workers and the major (Class 1) freight railroad companies in the country may escalate into a nationwide strike on December 7, 2011 and paralyze freight rail transportation for several days at an estimated cost to the economy of $2 billion per day.

SPECIAL REPORT | October 26, 2011

The Diversification Case for Gas: Potential diversification still exists at individual commodities’ level

A natural extension of our previous note on commodity correlations ( No More Diversification? on August 4) is the examination of correlations at the level of individual commodities. A more granular view illustrates that some commodities are relatively less correlated with the equity market than others, and this insight is useful from a perspective of diversification. It might make more sense for investors to look at individual commodities (vs. aggregate indices or a basket of commodities) when .....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | October 12, 2011

October 12, 2011

Please find attached a PDF file with official oil supply and demand projections from the IEA , OPEC , and the US DOE . The IEA released its monthly Oil Market Report today. It revised global oil demand growth down by 0.05 mb/d for 2011 and by 0.16 mb/d for 2012. Global oil demand is expected to rise to 89.2 mb/d in 2011 (+0.99 mb/d y-o-y) and reach 90.5 mb/d (+1.25 mb/d y-o-y) in 2012. On the supply side, the IEA kept its estimates of global supply growth for 2011 unchanged, but adjus.....

SPECIAL REPORT | September 20, 2011

Modeling Cushing Crude Stocks

WITH THE WTI - BRENT SPREAD TESTING record levels despite the last two days’ retracement, the physical dislocations facing crude oil at the NYMEX pricing hub in the U.S. Midcontinent are in focus. While the extent to which physical fundamentals are driving the spread has been subject to debate, what is clear is that the confluence of several long-term structural trends has resulted in an altogether new dynamic at play in PADD II. We construct a model of crude oil stock levels in C.....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | September 13, 2011

September 13, 2011

Please find attached a PDF file with official oil supply and demand projections from the IEA , OPEC , and the US DOE . The IEA released its monthly OMR today. The forecast revised global oil demand down by 0.20 mb/d for 2011 and by 0.40 mb/d for 2012. Global oil demand is expected to rise to 89.3 mb/d in 2011 (+1.04 mb/d y-o-y) and reach 90.7 mb/d (+1.41 mb/d y-o-y) in 2012. On the supply side, the IEA revised down non- OPEC supply growth for 2011 by 0.20 mb/d to +0.20 mb/d y-o-y. .....

SPECIAL REPORT | August 16, 2011

Eagle Ford oil and condensate production reaches 100 kb/d, natural gas at 1 bcf/d

Eagle Ford liquids growth shows unconventional plays have more than gas to offer. Despite the severely delayed and oft-revised numbers posted by the Texas Railroad Commission, LCMC Research estimates Eagle Ford production in July averaged 100 kb/d in oil and condensate along with 1 bcf/d of wet gas.

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | August 10, 2011

August 10, 2011

Please find attached a PDF file detailing official oil supply and demand projections from the IEA , OPEC , and the US DOE . After this month’s revisions, the official projections of the IEA , OPEC , and DOE regarding global demand growth for 2011 have moved closer into agreement. After revising down OECD demand growth by 0.20 mb/d, OPEC sees global demand growing +1.20 mb/d this year, with +1.30 mb/d non- OECD growth more than offsetting a -0.10 mb/d decline in the OECD . The D.....