DATA INSIGHT | June 07, 2011

Shale gas: U.S. dominance unchallenged?

THE IEA REPORT RELEASED YESTERDAY PRESENTS A MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE VIEW OF THE SHALE GAS BOOM THAN THE EIA HAS SUGGESTED IN RECENT MONTHS . In its report (“Are We Entering a Golden Age of Gas?”), the IEA estimates that global shale production will be limited to 15.6 bcf/d in 2015, while EIA’s balances put U.S. shale gas output at 19.7 bcf/d — over 4 bcf/d higher than IEA’s global estimate. It is also worth noting that 2011 U.S. shale gas production will.....

SPECIAL REPORT | May 23, 2011

Through a glass darkly

The haziness of current and near-term supply-demand fundamentals has amplified volatility, which looks likely to remain elevated in the coming months WITH BENCHMARK CRUDE PRICES FLUCTUATING WILDLY OVER THE LAST MONTH , a growing share of oil market commentary has attempted to decompose the tactical reasons for day-to-day price swings. But much of the discussion has missed the forest for the trees. Though various data points have indeed triggered the movements, exceptional unc.....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | May 12, 2011

May 2011

Please find attached a PDF file showing official petroleum supply and demand projections from the IEA , OPEC , and US DOE . This morning’s Oil Market Report from the IEA revised estimated 2011 oil demand growth downward by 140 kb/d to +1.29 mb/d, with the OECD (largely North America) accounting for the revision, on fears that higher oil prices would cut into annual demand growth. Non- OPEC demand growth was revised up 60 kb/d to +1.51 mb/d, mainly due to an downward revision to 2010 .....

DATA INSIGHT | April 15, 2011

Home, Sweet Home: Real house prices are unlikely to rebound in the near future

Real house prices are unlikely to rebound in the near future CASE - SHILLER DATA INDICATE THAT REAL HOUSE PRICES HAVE ALREADY DECLINED BY -37% FROM THEIR PEAK IN Q3 2006 (AS OF Q4 2010). Nominal house prices have been declining monthly for seven months and falling on a yearly basis for four months, heightening fears of a potential double dip in the housing market. Real house price data indicate the possibility of additional potential weakness in the housing market befo.....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | April 12, 2011

April 12, 2011

Please find attached a PDF file detailing official oil supply and demand projections from the IEA , OPEC , and US DOE . Today’s IEA Oil Market Report revised 2011 projections slightly to reflect greater non- OPEC supply growth while leaving global net demand growth for the year largely unchanged. On the supply side, the IEA dropped its 2011 growth projection by 0.1 mb/d to +0.9 mb/d, reflecting an increase in non- FSU supply. That brings the Agency’s projection of non- OPEC supply .....

SPECIAL REPORT | April 11, 2011

Out of Africa: It should take more than a calming North Africa and Middle East for oil markets to relax

PERHAPS NEVER BEFORE IN THE HISTORY OF MODERN ENERGY MARKETS HAVE MARKET - SHAKING EVENTS INCORPORATED HUMAN DRAMA across such a broad swath of the globe. Unrest ranging from protests to outright rebellion and civil war has erupted from the Persian Gulf to the Atlantic, with reverberations of this upheaval stretching to the halls of power in the Far East. Last month’s earthquake, tsunami, and subsequent nuclear crisis have wrought an unfathomable human and economic tol.....

SPECIAL REPORT | March 21, 2011

Shaken to the core: Japan's crisis has shifted the landscape for nuclear development around the globe

GOVERNMENTS ACROSS THE WORLD ARE REEVALUATING THEIR NUCLEAR POLICIES following the nuclear crisis that began in Japan on March 11. While reactions have varied across the 31 countries which possess nuclear power capacity and 17 others that plan to build nuclear reactors, antinuclear sentiment appears to be threatening the fledgling nuclear renaissance. Many energy policies around the world had begun to incorporate more nuclear power in their mix to reduce emissions and increase e.....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | March 15, 2011

Official Crude Oil Balances - 15 Mar 11

Please find attached a PDF file detailing official oil supply and demand projections from the IEA , OPEC , and US DOE . This morning’s IEA Oil Market Report revised 2010 demand growth upward 0.05 mb/d to 2.89 mb/d while lowering 2010 supply growth 0.10 mb/d to 2.20 mb/d. It revised its 2011 call on OPEC downward 0.10 mb/d to 29.9 mb/d, due in part to a 0.10 mb/d increase in non- OPEC supply growth and a slight 0.02 mb/d decrease in global demand. Yet again this month, looking back at.....

SPECIAL REPORT | March 15, 2011

Derangement over deficits: Spending cuts could trigger further deleveraging

THE CURRENT POLITICAL FAD OF DEFICIT REDUCTION AND SPENDING CUTS POSES SIGNIFICANT DANGER TO THE US ECONOMY . Data from the Federal Reserve Flow of Funds ( FOF ) and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation ( FDIC ) suggest that a majority of the plunge in outstanding household debt resulted from write-offs by financial intuitions. Nonfinancial business leverage (% of GDP ) remains higher than its historical trend while financial businesses are continuing to save to o.....

SPECIAL REPORT | February 28, 2011

Shoulder padding: The effect of conservation on the injection season

NATURAL GAS CONSERVATION IS NOT A NEW PHENOMENON , BUT ITS INCREASING ROLE DURING THE SHOULDER SEASONS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO RECORD INJECTIONS . Conservation used to conjure up images of former US President Carter, in his beige sweater, encouraging the American people to turn down their heaters and put on a sweater. However, beginning in 2009, conservation became more widespread, especially during the shoulder seasons as consumers began turning their units off rathe.....