DATA INSIGHT | February 15, 2011

Distillate's Winter of Discontent: Temperatures may be cold, but the weather has dragged on US demand

The weather has dragged on distillate demand, but likely not as much as estimates suggest MANY OBSERVERS HAVE BEEN SCRATCHING THEIR HEADS OVER THIS WINTER’S US DISTILLATE DEMAND NUMBERS , with apparent demand data hovering around last year’s depressed levels despite unusually cold weather. This winter has generated 8.2% more population-weighted heating degree days ( HDD ) than last year and 3.7% more than the 30-year norm. Yet weekly apparent distillate demand data do not.....

DATA INSIGHT | February 14, 2011

Something's Gotta Give: US spending is outpacing consumer confidence

THE SURGE IN US REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE ( PCE ) INTO THE END OF LAST YEAR GENERATED WIDESPREAD ENTHUSIASM ABOUT THE TRAJECTORY OF THE US ECONOMY , but the jump in spending has obscured a growing disconnect between PCE and US consumer confidence measures. Changes in PCE have typically correlated well with consumer confidence surveys, but consumer confidence has moved sideways from the end of 2009 while PCE grew 1.8% y-o-y in 2010. The recent.....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | February 10, 2011

February 10, 2011

Please find attached a PDF file detailing official oil supply and demand projections from the IEA , OPEC , and the US DOE . With 2010 in the rearview mirror, the three agencies still offer dramatically different views of demand growth last year. The IEA and DOE once again revised up their estimated 2010 demand growth, now at +2.84 mb/d (0.1 mb/d higher than last month) with the DOE not too far behind at +2.39 mb/d (up 0.15 mb/d from last month). OPEC increased its estimated 2010 de.....

SPECIAL REPORT | February 03, 2011

Panic Room: Seasonal natural gas spreads are offering some interesting opportunities

IT IS NO SECRET THAT THE NATURAL GAS MARKET HAS HAMMERED THE BACK OF THE NYMEX CURVE ; late last week, the 2012 calendar strip fell back below $5/mmbtu, now down 22.5% in the past year. At the same time, the market seems prepared for a repeat of last year’s seasonal spreads. The Oct/Jan spread tightened to just -$0.50 two weeks ago and settled as tight as -$0.438 on January 21, which is the tightest front Oct/Jan spread since 2004 (Figure 1). Market participants often ci.....

SPECIAL REPORT | January 21, 2011

Chinese handcuffs: Despite China's downshift, potential tightness as distillate is pulled from two directions

CHINA’S EVER-GROWING THIRST FOR DISTILLATE FUEL HAS EMERGED AS ONE OF THE CENTRAL DRIVERS of global petroleum markets. But China is far from the only country grabbing at the middle of the barrel; in fact, the OECD’s rising consumption of diesel fuel is a key source of distillate growth. Total distillate consumption may be relatively stagnant within OECD markets, but demand for low-sulfur diesel fuel has been moving steadily upward on both sides of the Atlantic. Indeed, widespread consumption o… .......

SPECIAL REPORT | January 18, 2011

Laws of Extraction: A look at the laws affecting natural gas in 2011

THE 112TH US CONGRESS CONVENED ON JANUARY 5 and recent and proposed regulations could make 2011 a watershed year for natural gas. The prior Democratic-dominated congress failed to adopt a comprehensive energy plan in 2010. Instead, the Obama Administration resigned itself to piecemeal policies, often adopting regulations unilaterally via the Environmental Protection Agency ( EPA ) and Bureau of Ocean, Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement ( BOEMRE ). At the same time, many states .....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | January 18, 2011

January 18, 2011

Please find attached a PDF file illustrating official petroleum supply and demand projections from the IEA , OPEC , and US DOE . This morning’s Oil Market Report from the IEA revised estimated 2010 oil demand growth upward by 270 kb/d to +2.74 mb/d, with the OECD accounting for 160 kb/d of the revision. The agency now sees non- OECD consumption up nearly 2.1 mb/d yoy with OECD demand up 660 kb/d. Moreover, the agency has also revised its expected 2011 growth upward nearly 100 kb/d .....

DATA INSIGHT | December 30, 2010

Data Insight - A Shot for Q4 GDP: Strong US personal consumption data were lost in the holiday season

LOST AMONG THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WERE LAST WEEK’S RELATIVELY STRONG DATA ON PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS . The +0.3% m-o-m increase in real personal consumption expenditure ( PCE ) in November and October’s upward revision to +0.5% (from +0.3% previously) slipped through the cracks. Taken together, October and November PCE averaged close to $9.42 trillion; if subsequent data confirm this level of spending for Q4, it would correspond to +3.7% annualized growth. With PCE .....

DATA INSIGHT | December 29, 2010

A Loss for Words: Revised extraction loss among the key stories in this week's natural gas data blizzard

AS THE NORTHEAST DIGS OUT FROM THE BLIZZARD OF 2010, THE EIA DUMPED MORE THAN A FLURRY OF DATA ON THE US NATURAL GAS MARKET between the Christmas and New Year holidays. Within a matter of hours yesterday, the agency released its 914 production estimates and natural gas monthly data for October, as well as its 2009 annual data. On top of that, the EIA’s new estimation methodology for residential and commercial gas consumption adds a wrinkle to interpreting demand data. The interaction of the mon… .......

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | December 10, 2010

December 10, 2010

Please find attached the latest official oil supply and demand projections from the IEA , OPEC , and US DOE .