SPECIAL REPORT
| December 07, 2010
Rocking the Boat: US LNG export prospects are still facing stiff headwinds
JUST A FEW YEARS AGO, EXPECTATIONS OF NATURAL GAS SHORTAGES PROMPTED COMPANIES TO SPEND billions of dollars expanding importation capacity. Before regasification capacity started to swell in 2005, 23 years had passed without the commissioning of a new terminal. Only six years later, with the output potential of US shale plays readily apparent, some of the same companies that had banked on the prospect of bringing gas into the US market are now vying for the opportunity to send domestically prod… .......
SPECIAL REPORT
| December 01, 2010
Correction: Baked in
Please find attached a corrected version of our Special Report, Baked in: With warm winter forecasts embedded in gas prices, will mild weather drive prices even lower? There was a mistake in Figure 12 of the prior version. We apologize for any inconvenience.
SPECIAL REPORT
| November 30, 2010
Baked in: With warm winter forecasts embedded in gas prices, will mild weather drive prices even lower?
AS THE US NATURAL GAS MARKET SHUFFLES INTO THE WINTER HEATING SEASON , bears seem in full control of prices. The prevailing market narrative hinges upon the onward march of domestic production and the consensus warm outlook for winter weather—and rightly so. There are certainly plenty of molecules in the market and gas prices should reflect the structural state of the market. But to say that balances are likely to be loose through the winter does not necessarily imply that the.....
SPECIAL REPORT
| November 19, 2010
Peripheral visions
Why debt restructuring is likely WHILE THE MARKETS WERE FOCUSED ON ANOTHER ROUND OF QUANTITATIVE EASING IN THE US, SOVEREIGN BOND YIELDS IN THE PERIPHERAL EUROZONE COUNTRIES (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain) were already edging up. Yields shot up from October 28, when German Chancellor Angela Merkel called for private bondholders to accept some losses as part of a future Eurozone bailout and debt restructuring mechanism. However, bond yields had started ed.....
DATA INSIGHT
| November 15, 2010
Figuratively Peaking: Power sector fuel choice appears flexible even during periods of peak demand
SINCE EARLY LAST YEAR, FUEL SWITCHING IN THE POWER SECTOR HAS CEMENTED ITS ROLE AS THE LARGEST AND MOST DYNAMIC SWING FACTOR in the US natural gas market. Futures markets are pricing in the continuation of widespread switching for at least the next two years, but due to the complexity of the switching phenomenon, it remains the least understood major driver of gas fundamentals. The novelty of a significant shift in the power sector’s fuel mix has given rise to several esoteric – but important… .......
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| November 12, 2010
November 12, 2010
Please find attached a table detailing official projections of oil balances for 2010 and 2011 by the IEA , OPEC , and US Department of Energy. All three agencies increased their estimates of oil demand for this year and next with the largest revisions coming from the US DOE , which now estimates demand growth this year of 2 mb/d. OPEC remains the most pessimistic of the group about demand prospects, estimating just 1.3 mb/d growth this year and 1.1 mb/d next year. The IEA’s estimated .....
SPECIAL REPORT
| November 05, 2010
An encore performance? The prospects for another early-winter natural gas inventory surprise
IN EARLY DECEMBER LAST YEAR, A FUNDAMENTAL SURPRISE SNAPPED THE US NATURAL GAS MARKET TO ATTENTION. Coming out of a once-in-a-generation bearish summer, December’s first two EIA natural gas storage reports implied that apparent fundamentals had tightened to such an extent that market participants were left groping for explanations just before the holidays. After reaching a bottom of $4.46/mmbtu on December 3rd, the January NYMEX contract rallied 25.6% to just below $6 before expiring at $5.81. … .......
DATA INSIGHT
| November 01, 2010
Marginal notes: Fuel switching is changing the relationship between power prices and natural gas
AS NATURAL GAS HAS CAPTURED MARKET SHARE FROM COAL IN THE POWER SECTOR, THE FUEL’S ROLE IN POWER MARKETS HAS CHANGED more than can be measured in bcf or MWh. The US power sector has been in flux for much of the past three years; economic weakness has dragged on demand while fuel switching between coal and gas has tested the commercial and infrastructural flexibility of regional markets. And as low natural gas prices have kept switching from coal to gas stubbornly persistent, the relationship be… .......
SPECIAL REPORT
| October 18, 2010
The Crude Abides: Oil inventories may be high, but they suggest that fundamentals have shifted
THE WORLD'S OIL INVENTORIES ARE UNDOUBTEDLY HIGH; THIS MONTH’S IEA OIL MARKET REPORT ESTIMATED THAT OECD COMMERCIAL STORAGE SET AN ALL-TIME RECORD at the end of August. Sitting just below 2.8 billion bbl, total liquids storage was up ever so slightly over the prior year, suggesting that the oil market has made no progress toward reducing the massive inventory glut that emerged during the global recession. Indeed, measured inventories have remained incredibly high despite preliminary demand read… .......
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| October 13, 2010
October 2010
Please find attached a PDF file detailing the latest supply and demand projections from the IEA , OPEC , and the US Department of Energy. This month featured upward revisions to demand expectations from both the IEA and the US DOE . The two agencies also increased their expectations for non- OPEC supply; in the case of the DOE , the increase in supply projections more than offset the increase in demand projections. OPEC continues to express the most pessimistic view of demand growth t.....