GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| August 11, 2017
August 2017
The table below shows implied stock change for the July 2017-December 2018 period: Highlights from the IEA’s August 2017 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) IEA maintains that the oil market is rebalancing, yet at a slower pace. Non- OECD demand was largely revised down to incorporate new data (-0.2 mb/d for 2015; -0.4 mb/d for 2016 and 2017; -0.5 mb/d for 2018), while stronger OECD demand partially offset those 2017 and 2018 declines. As a result, global demand averages 97.6 mb/d in 2017 .....
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| July 13, 2017
July 2017
The table below shows implied stock change for the July 2017-December 2018 period: Highlights from the IEA’s July 2017 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) Oil prices recently collapsed to the levels last seen before the joint-supply cut decision last November as investors are losing patience and confidence in the long-awaited market rebalancing. Strong Libyan and Nigerian output and a lower June OPEC compliance rate hurt the market’s confidence in the re-balancing. By June, combined productio.....
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| June 14, 2017
June 2017
The table below shows IEA & EIA’s implied stock change for the May 2017-December 2018 period. OPEC implied stock change outlook extends to December 2017 as their 2018 balances are not yet published: Highlights from the IEA’s June 2017 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) Today’s OMR includes IEA’s 2018 balances. On the demand side, growth is expected to accelerate modestly (+1.4 mb/d in 2018, compared to +1.3 mb/d in 2017 and +1.3 mb/d 2002-16 average), driven primarily by “rebounding indu.....
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| May 16, 2017
May 2017
The table below shows each agency’s implied stock change for the April-December 2017 period: Highlights from the IEA’s May 2017 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) Unlike the EIA that raised its 2017 consumption to +1.56 mb/d this month, the IEA opens its report with a warning on global demand growth, noting that “weakness in a number of previously solid countries – India, US, Germany and Turkey – curtailed the 1H17 global demand growth.” The IEA decided not to rock the boat too much just .....
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| April 13, 2017
April 2017
The table below shows each agency’s implied stock change for 2016 and 2017: Highlights from the IEA’s April 2017 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) Compared to the “feature article” of the OPEC report that paints a bullish oil products – and oil – demand picture in the coming months, the IEA started the April OMR highlighting their downward revision to the global demand outlook. The IEA attributes this weakness to “subdued gains in Russia and India, and weaker momentum in OECD countries,.....
MARKET INSIGHT
| April 07, 2017
An update on DAPL: Patoka or export?
Since our last note on DAPL , the section under Lake Oahe has been approved, completed and line fill has begun. While disagreement exists over what will happen in North Dakota and how much volume will travel to the US Gulf coast, market participants agree that light sweet exports will need to grow along with DAPL volumes arriving at the Nederland/Beaumont hub.
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| March 15, 2017
March 2017
The table below shows each agency’s implied stock change for 2016 and 2017: Highlights from the IEA’s March 2017 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) The March OMR starts by recognizing that prices have returned to levels not seen since just prior to the supply cut agreement. The IEA attributes weaker prices to rising OECD stocks (+1.5 mb/d in January), reversing course from the final four months of 2016, when commercial stocks declined by 800 kb/d. Rising stocks in early 2017 follow surging .....
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| February 13, 2017
February 2017
The table below shows each agency’s implied stock change for 2016 and 2017: Highlights from the IEA’s February 2017 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) The IEA expects global crude inventory draws to average 0.6 mb/d in 1H17 if OPEC maintains the 90% level of compliance set in January throughout the remaining period, despite a deeper draw of 0.79 mb/d if we carry OPEC January production of 32.06 mb/d through 1H17. OECD inventories of crude and products will remain above 5-year average .....
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| January 23, 2017
CORRECTED:January 2017
CORRECTION : The EIA introduced its 2018 balances for the first time this month. Our tables on page 3 and page 4 of the “Monthly Recap and Oil Balances” report published on Friday, January 20, 2017 were updated to include the extended time horizon for EIA’s balances. However, the “Implied Global Crude Stock Change” table published on page 1 of our report failed to account for this change, printing erroneous values. This report corrects 2016 and 2017 implied global crude stock change estima.....
MARKET INSIGHT
| January 13, 2017
Merging Into Traffic - Impact of the SPR Release on Diffs, Spreads and the Arb
Part I of our SPR series detailed the forthcoming mandated as well as discretionary releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Guided by existing legislation, we derived how sales in 2017 could potentially exceed 60m bbl, compared to the ~18m bbl figure commonly reported. So far, only one of the SPR drawdowns to take place in 2017 has been announced: the DOE will sell up to 8m bbl of sweet crude from the Bryan Mound, Big Hill and West Hackberry storage facili.....