GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | April 16, 2015

April 2015

Highlights from the IEA’s April 2015 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) The key take-away from the IEA’s report this month is that while demand has been stronger than expected, supply has also been higher, suggesting a rebalancing of the market may be premature. The agency revised its 2015 demand assumptions higher by +90 kb/d to 1.1 mb/d as a result of colder winter temperatures in 1Q15 and a “steadily improving global economic backdrop.” While the agency notes that the demand response has taken the .....

SPECIAL REPORT | March 19, 2015

A Bullish Spring - A Different Perspective on Balances

Next week is expected to record the first injection since the week ending November 7, 2014 and we would like to switch our attention to the upcoming spring. Two weeks ago we discussed a sub-1.4 tcf end-March scenario due to colder weather forecasts, but since then, weather forecasts for the month of March have been slashed down by about 60 HDDs. Halfway through the month, most recent weather forecasts put our end-March inventory estimate at 1,480 bcf, which leads to an end-October inventory of.....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | March 16, 2015

March 2015

Highlights from the IEA’s March 2015 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) The IEA revised up its oil demand expectations for full-year 2015 marginally higher this month, by +75 kb/d to 1.0 mb/d. Much of the recent uptick in oil demand can be attributed to refinery profits and storage plays, according to the agency, as well as some limited SPR buying. As for refined products, there are “still few firm signs at this stage that lower prices are giving the economy a real boost.” The agency does note, ho.....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | February 10, 2015

February 2015

Highlights from the IEA’s February 2015 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) As a result of lower capital expenditures, the IEA expects non- OPEC oil production growth to slow to +800 kb/d, and U.S. production in particular is seen slowing by a further -200 kb/d to 600 kb/d since the agency’s last report. The call on OPEC crude in 2H15, however, was revised higher to 30.2 mb/d. The agency offered a more detailed outlook in its Medium Term Oil Market Report ( MTOMR ), a summary of which we will provi.....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | January 16, 2015

January 2015

Highlights from the IEA’s January 2015 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) Low oil prices will impact less than 80 kb/d of light, tight oil ( LTO ) production in the U.S. in 2015, although steeper declines of -175 kb/d and -95 kb/d will occur in Colombia and Canada next year, respectively, according to the IEA’s latest report. The agency revised its non- OPEC supply growth estimate lower by -350 kb/d since last month to +950 kb/d. The call on OPEC crude, however, will increase in 2H15 to just shy of .....

SPECIAL REPORT | December 15, 2014

Outlook for condensate exports - Is the bark worth the bite?

The initial enthusiasm about U.S. export licenses issued mid-year has been tempered by fierce competition from producers in the Middle East. Cargoes may be leaving the U.S. as condensate, but they fall into the “crude oil” category in Japan, forcing U.S. exports to compete against Middle Eastern condensate and light crude oil. With existing suppliers determined to defend and/or grow their market share in Asia, U.S. cargoes are facing an uphill battle. So far, the precipitous drop in oil prices h.....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | December 12, 2014

December 2014

Highlights from the IEA’s December 2014 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) Compared to last month’s OMR , today’s report drops 2014 and 2015 call on OPEC crude and stocks by -0.1 mb/d and by -0.3 mb/d, respectively, with most of the demand side changes driven by a “severe downgrade applied to the Russian oil product demand forecast, consequential on much reduced projections of macroeconomic activity in Russia.” Global oil demand growth in 2015 is still expected to gain momentum over 2014 (+0.9 mb/d.....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | November 14, 2014

Global Oil Recap and Balances: November 2014

Highlights from the IEA’s November 2014 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) This morning’s IEA report was music to a bear’s ears with phrases including “…downward price pressures could build further into the first half of 2015” and “…a return to previous price highs may not be a close prospect, as it is increasingly clear that we have begun a new chapter in the history of oil markets.” On the supply side, the Agency notes that potential cuts in US light tight oil ( LTO ) investments due to lower p.....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | October 15, 2014

Global Oil Recap and Balances: October 2014

Highlights from the IEA’s October 2014 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) The IEA once again revised down its 2014 global oil demand growth estimate by -0.25 mb/d to +0.70 mb/d, with the expectation of +1.1 mb/d demand growth in 2015 to 93.5 mb/d, lower by -0.1 mb/d compared to the previous forecast. According to the IEA , a well-supplied market, rather than tepid demand, has been the primary factor in the recent drop in crude prices, and the Agency suggests weak growth may have bottomed at the same.....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | September 19, 2014

Global Oil Recap and Balances: September 2014

Please find attached a PDF file with official oil supply and demand projections from the IEA , OPEC , and the US DOE . There will be no commentary this month.