DOE CRUDE STATS | January 06, 2010

A New Years Hangover Can't Stop the Party

DOE CRUDE STATS January 6, 2010 A New Years Hangover Can’t Stop the Party This weeks’ EIA report kicked the New Year off on a bearish fundamental note, but the market seems unconcerned. The price shaved approximately $1 immediately after the stats release, but has since rallied nearly $2. Though product supplied numbers were bound to fall after the pre-holiday shipments ahead of Christmas and New Years, the demand numbers are quite weak, particularly for gasoline. The inventory numb.....

DOE CRUDE STATS | December 30, 2009

This Week's DOE Stats

DOE CRUDE STATS Attached is a summary of this week’s DOE oil statistics. Summary: Crude oil Inventories (-1538k bbls vs. Bloomberg expectations of -1850k bbls) Gasoline inventories (-366k bbls, vs. expectations of +1000k bbls) Distillate Inventories (-2055k bbls vs. expectations of -2225k bbls; of this -1817 was in heating oil) Cushing Stocks (-194k bbls) Refinery Utilization (+.28% to 80.3%) Yields: Gasoline 65%; Distillate 26.7% Crude oil imports up 320k b/d to 8.027m b/d De.....

DOE CRUDE STATS | December 23, 2009

December 23, 2009

DOE CRUDE STATS Major data points: Crude oil inventories: Inventories drew 4.8m bbl vs. expectations of a 1.6m bbl draw. Inventories east of the Rockies fell 3.82m bbl while Cushing filled another 571k bbl. Gasoline inventories: Gasoline stocks drew 333k bbl vs. expectations of a 1m bbl build. Distillate inventories: Distillate inventories drew 3m bbl vs. expectations of a 2m bbl draw. Refinery runs: Runs ticked down 27k b/d to 13.78m b/d, including a 144k b/d drop in PADD I.....

DOE CRUDE STATS | December 16, 2009

Stats in three words: weather, PADD3 and Runs

DOE CRUDE STATS December 16, 2009 Stats in three words: Weather, PADD III and Runs Today’s DOE headline stats, like last week’s, are decidedly bullish. But a closer look gives another story. On the demand side, principal products are up 550k b/d in the weekly data and 110k b/d on a 4-week moving average basis. But the bulk of the demand increase is in distillate fuel oil and jet-kero. The distillate demand reflects cold weather rather than a surge in GDP , while the jet-kero d.....

DOE CRUDE STATS | December 09, 2009

Trade Confirmations

DOE CRUDE STATS Trade confirmations. Today’s DOE stats are confirming changes in flat price and term structures over the past week. In the face of a headline bullish crude oil stock draw of 3.82m bbls, PADD II crude oil inventories built 2.77m bbls, and the critical Cushing hub added 2.46m bbls of PADD II’s build. At 33.35m bbls, Cushing inventories are just shy of the 34.92m bbls reached last February and on their way to a new record, perhaps testing the limits of Cushing storage c.....

DOE CRUDE STATS | December 02, 2009

Harder and Harder

DOE CRUDE STATS December 2, 2009 Harder and Harder It’s getting harder and harder to see a positive trend in US demand. It’s even harder to find a sign of a reduction in crude or product inventories, let alone a draw that would indicate that refiners are able to do much to improve their margins. But it’s especially hard to look at weekly US DOE / EIA data on stocks and balances and conclude that there is something new to say that hasn’t been said about the US petroleum sector. Majo.....

DOE CRUDE STATS | November 25, 2009

An uneventful holiday week

DOE CRUDE STATS November 25, 2009 An uneventful holiday week Reflecting recovering activity from Hurricane Ida’s disruption to the Gulf of Mexico, this week’s EIA report revealed few suggestions of shifting fundamentals in the market. Imports recovered along the Gulf coast and returned to higher levels than before the storm pushed through, bringing US imports to within shouting distance of 9m b/d for the first time since early Oct. Meanwhile demand stats enjoyed a weekly bounce, but .....

DOE CRUDE STATS | November 18, 2009

Hurricane Ida prompts a pause

DOE CRUDE STATS November 18, 2009 Hurricane Ida prompts a pause This week’s EIA report did not yield many surprises with Hurricane Ida reducing imports and domestic production. Demand grew 190k b/d w-o-w but continues to look anemic on a four-week moving average basis and refiners kept runs low, falling just below 13.8m b/d. And although Ida caused massive beach erosion along the eastern seaboard, the mountain of distillate inventories shows no sign of wearing down. Major data poi.....

DOE CRUDE STATS | November 12, 2009

Lowest seasonal runs since 1996 can't mop up product stocks

DOE CRUDE STATS November 12, 2009 Lowest seasonal runs since 1996 can’t mop up product stocks It’s hard to find something to cheer about in today’s DOE midweek stats. Refiners across the country dropped crude oil runs another 145k b/d to 13.825m b/d, nearly 1m b/d under the last five-year average and 638k b/d under last year’s very low level. Gross refinery utilization has now fallen below 80%. Even so, with demand falling on both a weekly and 4-week average basis across all main pr.....

DOE CRUDE STATS | November 04, 2009

Of little imports

DOE CRUDE STATS November 4, 2009 Of little imports Today’s headline bullish inventory numbers were driven by incredibly low crude oil import volumes, but the math doesn’t quite add up when taken in context with very low refinery runs for the week. On the demand side, the weekly 620k b/d increase in total apparent demand hinged on a 430 kb/d jump in the “Other” category while distillate demand continues to limp along. Major data points: Crude oil inventories: Down 3.94m bbl vs. exp.....