DOE CRUDE STATS | July 15, 2009

July 15, 2009

DOE CRUDE STATS July 15, 2009 Summer Sideways Shuffle While there may be hidden signals in today’s “Weekly Petroleum Status Report” from the US EIA / DOE , the main conclusion is that not much has changed from the prior week. There is no discernible improvement in product demand trends, no sign either that motorists are driving more or that industrial demand is growing. A slight increase in weekly deliveries of/apparent demand for distillates has no impact on four-week averages, and, .....

CFTC COT | July 10, 2009

July 10, 2009

Today’s CFTC Commitment of Traders Report for the week ending July 7th, shows that WTI Crude Oil non-commercial net length declined by 20k contracts (19%) in futures and options combined to 82k contracts of net length, the lowest level since reaching 75k contracts for the week ending May 12th. Total open interest remained mostly unchanged in futures only at 1.16m contracts, but increased by 56k contracts (2%) to 2.59m contracts in futures and options combined. In petroleum products, net l.....

DOE CRUDE STATS | July 08, 2009

July 08, 2009

DOE CRUDE STATS Finished, Products Total commercial stocks of crude oil and petroleum products grew by 5.14 mbbls to a colossal 1,114,191 kbbls over the past week, in a march toward new records that doesn’t want to stop. That’s a rate of 734k b/d and includes a crude oil inventory draw of 2.9 mbbls, right at the consensus mid-point. Even so, inventories at Cushing, OK, rose by 1.583 mbbls, and total PADD II inventories rose 893 kbbls. While PADD I (East Coast) inventories built, PA.....

DOE CRUDE STATS | July 01, 2009

July 01, 2009

DOE CRUDE STATS Sky’s The Limit? At the current rate of growth of total commercial stocks in the US, which rose by 4.4 million barrels over the past week, they could well grow to 1,109,075,000 barrels before stabilizing or drawing down. That would be 20 mbbl – or more than one full day of total demand coverage – than was held in US inventories in September 1998, when oil prices were heading toward $10 a barrel. See attached pdf for detailed charts. The headline inventory numbers show.....

DOE CRUDE STATS | June 24, 2009

The End of the Gasoline Season

DOE CRUDE STATS | June 17, 2009

June 17, 2009

DOE CRUDE STATS A large crude draw offset by an equally large gasoline build. Apparent gasoline demand jumps 210 kb/d w-o-w but the four-week average barely moves. Runs drop 73 kb/d w-o-w but the gasoline yield jumps to 62.2%. Imports tick up 67 kb/d and are back above 9 mb/d. US crude oil: -3874k (Bloomberg median -1750k) US gasoline: +3385k (Bloomberg +500k) US distillate: +308k (Bloomberg +900k) Refining: +0.05 (Bloomberg 0.0%) Cushing crude: -5k See attached for graphs US cr.....

DOE CRUDE STATS | June 10, 2009


We've included a correction in the first sentence: runs are down nearly 1 mb/d from the 5yr average, not week on week as previously implied.

DOE CRUDE STATS | June 10, 2009

June 10, 2009

DOE CRUDE STATS Stock draws came in well above expectations for crude, gasoline and distillates, but refinery runs are down nearly 1 mb/d and demand data continue to look very weak. US crude oil: -4382k (Bloomberg median +100k) US gasoline: -1.553k (Bloomberg median +750k) US distillate: -318k (Bloomberg median +1500k) Refining: -0.41% (Bloomberg median +0.2%) Cushing: -942k See attachment for charts Headline number of 4.4m bbl draw in crude (4.0 mbbl draw east of the Rockies), d.....

DOE CRUDE STATS | June 03, 2009

Back to Bearish Realities

This week's EIA data release returns to earlier trend lines of languishing demand and commercial inventories that refuse to decline. The major demand data point was the week on week 518k b/d drop in apparent gasoline demand, reflecting last week's steep increase of pre-memorial day holiday deliveries. With the exception of last week's blip, gasoline demand has remained fairly stagnant at around 9 mb/d. The other major data point is crude oil inventories, which built by 2.866 m bbls, but excludi… .......

DOE CRUDE STATS | May 28, 2009

May 28, 2009

DOE CRUDE STATS Another week of bullish crude draws and a big seasonal bounce in gasoline demand, but a look at seasonal patters still shows some risk of a weak summer driving season. US crude: -5413k (vs. -150k Bloomberg median) US gasoline: -537k (vs. -1300k consensus) US distillate: +248k (vs. +1000k consensus) Cushing crude: +1064k Crude inventories highlighted by seasonal 4.2m bbl draw (2.2% wow) in Padd 3, and 1.1m bbl build (3.6% wow) in Cushing. Padd 3 stocks at 186m bbls a.....