DOE CRUDE STATS
| November 24, 2010
PADD II imports coming back
DOE CRUDE STATS PADD II imports coming back Total US apparent demand (product supplied) was essentially unchanged on the week at 18.8 mb/d, but apparent gasoline demand fell 120 kb/d to 8.83 mb/d. Four-week average gasoline demand is a shade below 9 mb/d and roughly flat with year-ago levels. Apparent distillate demand was little changed on the week at 3.8 mb/d, but four-week average demand is running 430 kb/d above year-ago levels. Major data points: • Crude oil inventories: Buil.....
DOE CRUDE STATS
| November 17, 2010
Distillate deflates
DOE CRUDE STATS Distillate deflates Apparent distillate demand (product supplied) took a big hit, dropping 610 kb/d on the week to 3.78 mb/d, practically giving up the past four weeks’ gains. The falloff was likely the result of lower exports after shipments abroad inflated apparent demand numbers in the wake of France’s extended disruption last month. Nonetheless, four-week average distillate demand is still running 500 kb/d (+13.9%) above year-ago levels. Apparent gasoline demand fell .....
DOE CRUDE STATS
| November 10, 2010
Distillate strength
DOE CRUDE STATS Distillate strength Apparent distillate demand (product supplied) has surged over the last four weeks, gaining 690 kb/d since early October. Although a good portion of this increase has likely been due to a hidden jump in exports – resulting from tightness in global distillate markets as European refining disruptions, Latin American product demand, and Chinese distillate shortages – the numbers are nonetheless impressive. At 4.39 mb/d, this is the highest weekly reading s.....
DOE CRUDE STATS
| November 03, 2010
Erratic behavior
DOE CRUDE STATS Erratic behavior The erratic gasoline estimates and PADD II stats continued into this week. Although gasoline inventories declined -2.7m bbl, it was more for a reduction in supply rather than strong demand. Apparent gasoline demand (product supplied) surrendered most of last week’s gains, dropping 340 kb/d. At 9.02 mb/d, apparent gasoline demand – both this week and the 4wk average – is flat with year-ago levels. Meanwhile, the mysteries surrounding fluctuating PADD I.....
DOE CRUDE STATS
| October 27, 2010
A wild Wednesday
DOE CRUDE STATS A wild Wednesday Total product supplied (apparent demand) increased 1.08 mb/d to 19.5 mb/d, the highest estimate in a month. Apparent principle product demand increased 750 kb/d (the third-highest weekly increase in the past three years) with gasoline demand up 470 kb/d and distillate demand up 110 kb/d. Yields reached their highest point in two years, pushing gasoline production back to a record level for this time of year even though runs remain quite low. Meanwhile, P.....
DOE CRUDE STATS
| October 20, 2010
Is PADD 2 legit?
DOE CRUDE STATS Is PADD 2 legit? Already benefiting from a weaker dollar and rallying equities today, WTI gained an instant boost from the big -1m bbl decline of Cushing inventories as part of a broader -3.5m bbl draw in PADD II. The region’s draw is a bit curious as PADD II imports increased 60 kb/d while runs fell 13 kb/d, implying that the pull on crude inventories should be ~0.5m bbl less than last week, when storage grew by 1.3m bbl. That means that crude supply had to other.....
DOE CRUDE STATS
| October 14, 2010
No big surprises
DOE CRUDE STATS No big surprises Apparent principal product demand (product supplied) fell 280 kb/d on the week to 14.3 mb/d, primarily due to a -180 kb/d drop in apparent gasoline demand. 4wk average apparent gasoline demand is running 100 kb/d below year-ago levels, though for the remainder of the year we expect gasoline consumption to run slightly ahead of last year’s depressed levels. Despite generally weak gasoline demand, lower runs have curtailed product output, dragging gasoline .....
DOE CRUDE STATS
| October 06, 2010
Maintenance season in full swing
DOE CRUDE STATS Maintenance season in full swing Total US apparent demand (product supplied) fell -1.26 mb/d w-o-w, including a -0.39 mb/d drop in apparent principal product demand and a -0.64 mb/d drop in other oils. As we mentioned last week, the sudden jump in apparent gasoline demand was likely little more than a head fake; apparent demand indeed fell -0.39 mb/d this week to 8.99 mb/d (-0.28 mb/d yoy and flat on a 4wk average basis). The transient late-September jump this year (and.....
DOE CRUDE STATS
| September 29, 2010
Suspicious Minds
DOE CRUDE STATS Suspicious minds Taken at face value, this week’s stats are the most supportive that we’ve seen in some time, but the veracity of some of the key numbers seems quite dubious. US apparent demand (product supplied) jumped 530 kb/d w-o-w, on the back of a suspicious 540 kb/d increase of apparent mogas demand and a 210 kb/d increase in apparent distillate demand. Meanwhile, the reported 3.5m bbl gasoline inventory withdrawal slashed a chunk out of the yoy surplus, but likely .....
DOE CRUDE STATS
| September 22, 2010
Gasoline weakness continues
DOE CRUDE STATS Gasoline weakness continues The impact of Enbridge’s pipeline troubles appears more muted than much of the market had anticipated and apparent demand estimates are looking particularly weak (especially for gasoline). Apparent gasoline demand has continued to crumble into the shoulder season, falling another -170 kb/d, the lowest reading since last winter. Both on a weekly basis and the four-week average, apparent gasoline demand is no higher than it was at this time in 20.....