EIA NG STORAGE REPORT | November 25, 2020

November 25, 2020

Dear , The EIA reported a -18 bcf build for the reference week , 3 bcf less than our call of -21 bcf and 1 bcf less than the Bloomberg median of -19 bcf. Our models are currently showing activity of: +2, -77, -127, -139 bcf over the next four weeks for a total of -341 bcf, compared to -322 bcf for the same period last year and the five-year average of -334 bcf.


EIA NG STORAGE REPORT | November 19, 2020

November 19, 2020

Dear , The EIA reported a +31 bcf build for the reference week , 4 bcf greater than our call of +27 bcf and 11 bcf greater than the Bloomberg median of +20 bcf. Earlier this week, the EIA released its preliminary findings of the 2018 Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS). From this, we see that more than half of commercial square footage risks facing covid-related usage restrictions. Our models are currently showing activity of: -25, -19, -51, -96 bcf over the next four weeks f.....


EIA NG STORAGE REPORT | November 13, 2020

November 13, 2020

Dear , The EIA reported a +8 bcf build for the reference week , 12 bcf greater than our call of -4 bcf and 11 bcf greater than the Bloomberg median of -3 bcf. In addition to volumetric information, recent mine level data reveals a new dynamic between mines and coal plants. Given this evolving dynamic as the coal market gets “thinner”, break-even models for gas-to-coal switching may become less accurate, including this winter. Our models are currently showing activity of: +19, -57, -67, -91 bcf .....


EIA NG STORAGE REPORT | November 05, 2020

November 5, 2020

Dear , The EIA reported a -36 bcf build for the reference week , 2 bcf greater than our call of -34 bcf and 5 bcf greater than the Bloomberg median of -31 bcf. As of this morning, the GWHDD estimate for the month of November has dropped to 471 GWHDDs, so far setting the month up to be 2nd mildest November (behind 2016) in the past 10 years. Our models are currently showing activity of: -4, +27, -31, -69 bcf over the next four weeks for a total of -77 bcf, compared to -123 bcf for the same perio.....


EIA NG STORAGE REPORT | October 29, 2020

October 29, 2020

Dear , The EIA reported a +29 bcf build for the reference week , 8 bcf lower than our call of +37 bcf and 9 bcf lower than the Bloomberg median of +38 bcf. The “outlier” effect of South Central's draw is set to be exacerbated in the coming weeks, where we will see the first “decisive” withdrawal from US storage inventories before we enter November. As we enter a new season, we are including Summer 2021 balances. Our models are currently showing activity of: -21, -20, -7, -62 bcf over the next fo.....


EIA NG STORAGE REPORT | October 22, 2020

October 22, 2020

Dear , The EIA reported a +49 bcf build for the reference week , 2 bcf higher than our call of +47 bcf and 3 bcf lower than the Bloomberg median of +52 bcf. We were surprised with EQT’s operational activity during 3Q20, in particular the number of PA Marcellus horizontal wells that were Turned-In-Line (TIL) during 3Q20. This could be interpreted in two ways... Our models are currently showing injections of: +33, -7, -21, -34 bcf over the next four weeks for a total of -29 bcf, compared to +84 b.....


EIA NG STORAGE REPORT | October 15, 2020

October 15, 2020

Dear , The EIA reported a +46 bcf build for the reference week , 2 bcf lower than our call of +48 bcf and 5 bcf lower than the Bloomberg median of +51 bcf. Two weeks ago in our forward balances, we published the smallest October injection followed by the largest November draw on storage inventories in the last 5 years. The size of the deviation from the recent historical average is something we wish to draw attention to, however we add a note of caution to our forward looking weekly estimates. O.....


EIA NG STORAGE REPORT | October 08, 2020

October 8, 2020

Dear , The EIA reported a +75 bcf build for the reference week , 4 bcf higher than our call of +71 bcf and 3 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median of +72 bcf. In this commentary, we aim to address the potential downside risks Hurricane Delta brings to Henry Hub cash prices and the November contract. Our models are currently showing injections of: +47, +65, +31, +12 bcf over the next four weeks for a total of +155 bcf, compared to +332 bcf for the same period last year and the five-year average o.....


EIA NG STORAGE REPORT | October 01, 2020

October 1, 2020

Dear , The EIA reported a +76 bcf build for the reference week , equal to our call as well as the Bloomberg median. We believe that the current weakness in cash is due to the way storage field operators manage the risk of congestion. With at least one month of injections remaining and an additional 250+ bcf expected to be put underground, operators are very selective in the way they make the limited remaining space available to customers (salts & non-salts). They also want to preserve their quic.....


EIA NG STORAGE REPORT | September 24, 2020

September 24, 2020

Dear , The EIA reported a +66 bcf build for the reference week , 6 bcf lower than our call of +72 bcf and 11 bcf lower than the Bloomberg median of +77 bcf. The October contract followed cash down but has made a swift recovery over the last two days as TS Beta turned out to be a non-event in terms of persistent demand destruction... Our models are currently showing injections of: +79, +70, +59, +52 bcf over the next four weeks for a total of +260 bcf, compared to +405 bcf for the same period la.....