EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| March 25, 2021
March 25, 2021
Dear , The EIA reported a -36 bcf withdrawal, 16 bcf greater than our call of -20 bcf and 14 bcf greater than the Bloomberg median of -22 bcf. It appears that provided data contained misleading storage activity for some facilities during the reference week. Most notably, the 47 bcf (working gas) Blue Lake storage facility in Kalkaska County, Michigan, showed zero storage activity during the reference week. Our models are currently showing storage activity of: +14, +28, +39, +49 bcf over the nex.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| March 19, 2021
March 18, 2021
Dear , The EIA reported a -11 bcf withdrawal, in-line with our call and 7 bcf less than the Bloomberg median of -18 bcf. February’s winter storm is proving to be quite significant and the fallout will likely continue to drag down industrial demand for natural gas into the start of the injection season. From this week's JP Morgan Industrials Conference, we have gained some further insight into the the ongoing recovery and corresponding supply chain disruptions, some of which could stretch out int.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| March 11, 2021
March 11, 2021
Dear , The EIA reported a -52 bcf withdrawal, 11 bcf more than our call of -41 bcf and 26 bcf less than the Bloomberg median of -78 bcf. Our four-week forecast implies that storage inventories will reach ~1.7 tcf by the end of March. Barring the materialization of colder weather, the current forecast at this point in the season does not seem to provide much of an upside for increased storage draws. There are however a couple of factors that could support some incremental demand over the next few.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| March 04, 2021
March 4, 2021
Dear , The EIA reported a -98 bcf withdrawal, 39 bcf less than our call of -137 bcf and 44 bcf less than the Bloomberg median of -142 bcf. Rather than discrediting the EIA’s reported inventory change and wait for a revision (which may or may not come), we will walk through how to find an incremental 30-35 bcf in South Central and then let our readers decide whether such a scenario is probable. Our models are currently showing storage activity of: -55, -48, -49, -13 bcf over the next four weeks .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| February 25, 2021
February 25, 2021
Dear , The EIA reported a -338 bcf withdrawal, 8 bcf less than our call of -346 bcf and 4 bcf more than the Bloomberg median of -334 bcf. As we shift our focus to the summer, we also wish to highlight a few key takeaways from earnings calls which lead us to believe that production (or at least production capacity) may surprise us to the upside in the injection season. Our models are currently showing storage activity of: -143, -62, -56, -51 bcf over the next four weeks for a total of -312 bcf, .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| February 19, 2021
February 18, 2021
Dear , The EIA reported a -237 bcf withdrawal, 1 bcf less than our call of -238 bcf and 15 bcf less than the Bloomberg median of -252 bcf. We wish to reign in our excitement about a close call of the EIA’s reported withdrawal on account of two factors... When it comes to playing a blame game, numbers and stats can help us make any case we wish. For example, we can highlight that between Monday and Wednesday (inclusive), natural gas reached its highest share (65+%) of ERCOT power generation in at.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| February 11, 2021
February 11, 2021
Dear , The EIA reported a -171 bcf withdrawal, 8 bcf less than our call of -179 bcf and 9 bcf less than the Bloomberg median of -180 bcf. A combination of supply and demand strains has left Oklahoma short gas for tomorrow and caused next day gas prices across MidCon to spike dramatically higher, led by the $85/mmbtu print for OneOK (OGT). The incoming frigid weather creates two factors that may help the gas market not be as tight as weather forecasts and supply side predictions (i.e. freeze-offs.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| February 04, 2021
February 4, 2021
Dear , The EIA reported a -192 bcf withdrawal, 9 bcf greater than our call of -183 bcf and 3 bcf less than the Bloomberg median of -195 bcf. Data from the latest Natural Gas Monthly brought some surprises, including discrepancies between the reported weekly and monthly inventory changes. Our updated balances show a slight increase in CY21 vs CY20 natural gas production, with Permian and Haynesville likely to provide more upside under the right conditions. Our models are currently showing storage.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 28, 2021
January 28, 2021
Dear , The EIA reported a -128 bcf withdrawal, 7 bcf less than our call of -135 bcf and 9 bcf less than the Bloomberg median of -137 bcf. Over the next few weeks, we will be sharing some of the tools we developed that give us better insight into coal stocks at the plant level. Today, we will start with six charts that put various coal ranks into perspective. Our models are currently showing activity of: -185, -179, -184, -177 bcf over the next four weeks for a total of -725 bcf, compared to -56.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 22, 2021
January 22, 2021
Dear , The EIA reported a -187 bcf withdrawal, 3 bcf less than our call of -190 bcf and 10 bcf greater than the Bloomberg median of -177 bcf. As much as recent news and developments targeting our industry may come across as demoralizing, Charlie Munger’s wisdom shared with Caltech Alumni provides insight into how midstream can survive and thrive even – or especially – in the current environment. Our models are currently showing activity of: -134, -175, -138, -165 bcf over the next four weeks fo.....