EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| April 22, 2021
April 22, 2021
Dear , The EIA reported a +38 bcf withdrawal, 8 bcf less than our call of +46 bcf and and 9 bcf less than the Bloomberg median of +47 bcf. This morning, Dow hosted their 1Q2021 earnings call. The numerous comments on improving market conditions and results that beat month-old guidance, which we had utilized to construct last month's more bearish view, appears to be a case of "undersell, overdeliver". Our models are currently showing storage activity of: +9, +56, +77, +75 bcf over the next four w.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| April 15, 2021
April 15, 2021
Dear , The EIA reported a +61 bcf withdrawal, 10 bcf less than our call of +71 bcf and and 6 bcf less than the Bloomberg median of +67 bcf. As noted in today’s NG Morning Summary, we have revised the methodology used in estimating daily Mexican exports, which we detail in this report. Our models are currently showing storage activity of: +50, +31, +78, +74 bcf over the next four weeks for a total of +233 bcf, compared to +321 bcf for the same period last year and the five-year average of +267 b.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| April 08, 2021
April 8, 2021
Dear , The EIA reported a +20 bcf withdrawal, 2 bcf less than our call of +22 bcf and 2 bcf greater than the Bloomberg median of +22 bcf. Our models are currently showing storage activity of: +72, +80, +69, +83 bcf over the next four weeks for a total of +304 bcf, compared to +285 bcf for the same period last year and the five-year average of +211 bcf.
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| April 01, 2021
April 1, 2021
Dear , The EIA reported a +14 bcf withdrawal, 7 bcf greater than our call of +21 bcf and 5 bcf greater than the Bloomberg median of +19 bcf. We see over-performing production as the main bearish summertime risk on the supply side. If large public companies that are expected to remain disciplined are already tracking to beat 2-month old production targets, then we’d expect private firms to become overachievers as well. A factor that can mitigate this and support a more bullish thesis for summer 2.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| March 25, 2021
March 25, 2021
Dear , The EIA reported a -36 bcf withdrawal, 16 bcf greater than our call of -20 bcf and 14 bcf greater than the Bloomberg median of -22 bcf. It appears that provided data contained misleading storage activity for some facilities during the reference week. Most notably, the 47 bcf (working gas) Blue Lake storage facility in Kalkaska County, Michigan, showed zero storage activity during the reference week. Our models are currently showing storage activity of: +14, +28, +39, +49 bcf over the nex.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| March 19, 2021
March 18, 2021
Dear , The EIA reported a -11 bcf withdrawal, in-line with our call and 7 bcf less than the Bloomberg median of -18 bcf. February’s winter storm is proving to be quite significant and the fallout will likely continue to drag down industrial demand for natural gas into the start of the injection season. From this week's JP Morgan Industrials Conference, we have gained some further insight into the the ongoing recovery and corresponding supply chain disruptions, some of which could stretch out int.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| March 11, 2021
March 11, 2021
Dear , The EIA reported a -52 bcf withdrawal, 11 bcf more than our call of -41 bcf and 26 bcf less than the Bloomberg median of -78 bcf. Our four-week forecast implies that storage inventories will reach ~1.7 tcf by the end of March. Barring the materialization of colder weather, the current forecast at this point in the season does not seem to provide much of an upside for increased storage draws. There are however a couple of factors that could support some incremental demand over the next few.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| March 04, 2021
March 4, 2021
Dear , The EIA reported a -98 bcf withdrawal, 39 bcf less than our call of -137 bcf and 44 bcf less than the Bloomberg median of -142 bcf. Rather than discrediting the EIA’s reported inventory change and wait for a revision (which may or may not come), we will walk through how to find an incremental 30-35 bcf in South Central and then let our readers decide whether such a scenario is probable. Our models are currently showing storage activity of: -55, -48, -49, -13 bcf over the next four weeks .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| February 25, 2021
February 25, 2021
Dear , The EIA reported a -338 bcf withdrawal, 8 bcf less than our call of -346 bcf and 4 bcf more than the Bloomberg median of -334 bcf. As we shift our focus to the summer, we also wish to highlight a few key takeaways from earnings calls which lead us to believe that production (or at least production capacity) may surprise us to the upside in the injection season. Our models are currently showing storage activity of: -143, -62, -56, -51 bcf over the next four weeks for a total of -312 bcf, .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| February 19, 2021
February 18, 2021
Dear , The EIA reported a -237 bcf withdrawal, 1 bcf less than our call of -238 bcf and 15 bcf less than the Bloomberg median of -252 bcf. We wish to reign in our excitement about a close call of the EIA’s reported withdrawal on account of two factors... When it comes to playing a blame game, numbers and stats can help us make any case we wish. For example, we can highlight that between Monday and Wednesday (inclusive), natural gas reached its highest share (65+%) of ERCOT power generation in at.....