EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| August 20, 2020
August 20, 2020
Dear , Note: The EIA NG Storage Report will return Thursday, September 3, 2020. The EIA reported a +43 bcf build for the reference week, equal to our call of +43 bcf and 1 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median of +42 bcf. Our models are currently showing injections of: +44, +38, +61, +79 bcf over the next four weeks for a total of +222 bcf, compared to a +299 bcf for the same period last year and the five-year average of +261 bcf.
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| August 13, 2020
August 13, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a +58 bcf build for the reference week, 4 bcf higher than our call of +54 bcf and 2 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median of +56 bcf. The high inventories in the Midwest and South Central entering the shoulder months may set up for injectability issues later on in the season. Factors that can offer outlets for these regions, particularly in South Central, are lower associated gas production, returning industrial demand, and returning LNG exports... Our models are currently.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| August 06, 2020
August 6, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a +33 bcf build for the reference week, 5 bcf higher than our call of +28 bcf and 3 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median of +30 bcf. Looking at this week’s price action, we initially asked ourselves what we now perceive as a poorly-worded question... Given the sudden and extended move, we now believe a better question would have been: “was the $1.799/mmbtu price level for the September contract justified?” Our models are currently showing injections of: +53, +34, +30, +55.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| July 30, 2020
July 30, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a +26 bcf build for the reference week, 2 bcf higher than our call of +24 bcf and 5 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median of +21 bcf. “I am a little bit worried about gas prices, particularly moving into winter and next summer..." "Producers hoping and praying those stronger ’21 gas prices are basically betting the balance sheet on winter, and that is a risky proposition.” CNX sounded extremely confident in its ability to push incremental volumes to the market if / when de.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| July 23, 2020
July 23, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a +37 bcf build for the reference week, 2 bcf lower than our call of +39 bcf and 1 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median of +36 bcf. We wanted to revisit and comment on some of our outlooks we have made since the beginning of the pandemic using the insight gained from 2Q20 railroad operations and cross-reference that macro information with operational benchmarks provided by individual energy-focused firms... With EIA data showing a 4% drop in April industrial demand and ra.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| July 16, 2020
July 16, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a +45 bcf build for the reference week, 1 bcf lower than our call of +46 bcf and 3 bcf lower than the Bloomberg median of +48 bcf.... Turkey, TX registered a maximum temperature of... For the first 15 days of July, our estimates show gas burns for power have averaged... Figures 1-9 below show generation, capacity utilization, and market share for CCGT, total coal and wind by month since 2013... Our models are currently showing injections of: +38, +17, +15, +45 bcf over .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| July 09, 2020
July 9, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported an +56 bcf injection into inventories for the reference week, 2 bcf higher than our call of +54 bcf and 1 bcf lower than the Bloomberg median of +57 bcf. The NEXUS / Texas Eastern MR03 meter may be distorting measurement of NEXUS exports from OH to MI to the tune of 1.0 bcf/d, depending on the attribution and / or methodology used. The dynamic of NEXUS’ leased capacity on TETCO's system is reflected in the reporting by both pipelines, while other pipelines may not reflect.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| July 02, 2020
July 2, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported an +65 bcf injection into inventories for the reference week, 7 bcf lower than our call of +72 bcf and 8 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median of +73 bcf. We have been talking about wellbore (virtual) storage for a few years now, and theory will meet practice this fall and early winter. We previously used a car analogy (AMG E63S Station Wagon) to explain the productive capacity of US gas shale plays – we’ll need to “floor it” as peak winter months approach.
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| June 25, 2020
June 25, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported an +120 bcf injection into inventories for the reference week, 6 bcf higher than our call of +114 bcf and 11 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median of +109 bcf. “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked” (Warren Buffet). We believe that high gas-fired power generation numbers in the previous weeks have been masking the extent of the demand destruction caused by the global pandemic. This week, the tide went out.
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| June 18, 2020
June 18, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported an +85 bcf injection into inventories for the reference week, 3 bcf lower than our call of +88 bcf and 1 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median of +84 bcf. We have been feeling increasingly uncomfortable with some of the estimates our primary data source provides and decided to compare their numbers to those of two other vendors (Figure 1). As the beginning of the injection season pretty much overlaps with restrictions imposed due to Covid-19, we decided to use season-to-da.....