EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| June 11, 2020
June 11, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported an +93 bcf injection into inventories for the reference week, 4 bcf higher than our call of +89 bcf and 1 bcf lower than the Bloomberg median of +94 bcf. This week, we look to the legal challenges faced by the Atlantic Coast Pipeline and Mountain Valley Pipeline projects in light of last week's changes by the Trump Administration and the EPA to regulatory policy. This includes an imminent Supreme Court decision on the future of both projects and Winter 2020/21 balances an.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| June 04, 2020
June 4, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported an +102 bcf injection into inventories for the reference week, 2 bcf lower than our call of +104 bcf and 9 bcf lower than the Bloomberg median of +111 bcf. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow shows a -53.8% GDP growth estimate for 2Q20, which points to a more severe contraction than consensus expectation. We simply believe that the depth as well as the deviation from the consensus makes this a plastic deformation in terms of the economic cycles and it will take a while to climb out .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| May 28, 2020
May 28, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported an +109 bcf injection into inventory for the reference week, 9 bcf higher than our call of +100 bcf and 5 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median of +104 bcf. Our misses this week in the East and Midwest regions were larger than we would enjoy, however we were weary of weeks like this coming (as we mentioned on Tuesday) as our balancing items in both regions have grown since April... Our models are currently showing injections of: +103, +108, +82, +79 bcf over the next four .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| May 22, 2020
May 21, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported an +81 bcf injection into inventory for the reference week, 2 bcf higher than our call of +81 bcf and 3 bcf lower than the Bloomberg median of +84 bcf. Our updated seasonal balances are included in this week's issue. South Central – the only region where we overestimated builds this week – has a high level of uncertainty in both supply and demand dynamics as the estimates rely on modelling...If the miss was primarily on the supply side, the most likely explanation is th.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| May 14, 2020
May 14, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a +103 bcf injection into inventory for the reference week, 7 bcf lower than our call of +110 bcf and 4 bcf lower than the Bloomberg median of +107 bcf. The Bakken is not the only play in the Mountain region where we see falling natural gas production: other liquids-rich formations such as the Niobrara also show declines, but it is not one size fits all. Furthermore, Canadian gas may not be able to fully utilize Northern Border capacity that opens up as a result of declin.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| May 07, 2020
May 7, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a +109 bcf injection into inventory for the reference week, 1 bcf higher than our call of +108 bcf and equal to Bloomberg median of +109 bcf. As oil producers shut in their wells, associated gas output may not fall as drastically as simple spreadsheet calculations suggest. We discuss underappreciated factors to consider in the analysis of production cuts. On the demand side, Dominion Energy's earnings call presentation highlights how different zones operated by the same .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| May 01, 2020
[EDITED] April 30, 2020
Note: We edited the report to contain the 4 week storage forecast absent during yesterday's issue. Dear , The EIA reported a +70 bcf injection into inventory for the reference week, 3 bcf higher than our call of +67 bcf and 2 bcf below the Bloomberg median of +72 bcf. Starting mid-March, we had been attempting to quantify the impact of shelter-in-place orders on electricity demand using ISO data in an effort to link that drop in power demand to the pandemic’s impact on economic activity. We no.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| April 30, 2020
April 30, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a +70 bcf injection into inventory for the reference week, 3 bcf higher than our call of +67 bcf and 2 bcf below the Bloomberg median of +72 bcf. Starting mid-March, we had been attempting to quantify the impact of shelter-in-place orders on electricity demand using ISO data in an effort to link that drop in power demand to the pandemic’s impact on economic activity. We now have more granular data available as utilities started to report their 1Q20 results... Earlier this.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| April 23, 2020
April 23, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a +43 bcf injection into inventory for the reference week, 6 bcf lower than our call of +49 bcf and 2 bcf below the Bloomberg median of +45 bcf. Our attempt to improve regional accuracy was ruined by a sizable miss in the East... Our previous set of balances published last week used the futures strip for WTI as guidance... On Monday, the benchmark oil price in the US traded negative...
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| April 17, 2020
April 16, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a +73 bcf injection into inventory for the reference week, equal to our call of +73 bcf and 5 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median of +68 bcf. We do not expect life to return to “the old normal” when the country starts reopening (presumably) at the beginning of May...To make an analogy, starting the economy will be similar to a “ black start ” – the process of restoring an electric grid to operation without relying on the external electric power transmission network to r.....