EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| May 07, 2020
May 7, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a +109 bcf injection into inventory for the reference week, 1 bcf higher than our call of +108 bcf and equal to Bloomberg median of +109 bcf. As oil producers shut in their wells, associated gas output may not fall as drastically as simple spreadsheet calculations suggest. We discuss underappreciated factors to consider in the analysis of production cuts. On the demand side, Dominion Energy's earnings call presentation highlights how different zones operated by the same .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| May 01, 2020
[EDITED] April 30, 2020
Note: We edited the report to contain the 4 week storage forecast absent during yesterday's issue. Dear , The EIA reported a +70 bcf injection into inventory for the reference week, 3 bcf higher than our call of +67 bcf and 2 bcf below the Bloomberg median of +72 bcf. Starting mid-March, we had been attempting to quantify the impact of shelter-in-place orders on electricity demand using ISO data in an effort to link that drop in power demand to the pandemic’s impact on economic activity. We no.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| April 30, 2020
April 30, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a +70 bcf injection into inventory for the reference week, 3 bcf higher than our call of +67 bcf and 2 bcf below the Bloomberg median of +72 bcf. Starting mid-March, we had been attempting to quantify the impact of shelter-in-place orders on electricity demand using ISO data in an effort to link that drop in power demand to the pandemic’s impact on economic activity. We now have more granular data available as utilities started to report their 1Q20 results... Earlier this.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| April 23, 2020
April 23, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a +43 bcf injection into inventory for the reference week, 6 bcf lower than our call of +49 bcf and 2 bcf below the Bloomberg median of +45 bcf. Our attempt to improve regional accuracy was ruined by a sizable miss in the East... Our previous set of balances published last week used the futures strip for WTI as guidance... On Monday, the benchmark oil price in the US traded negative...
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| April 17, 2020
April 16, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a +73 bcf injection into inventory for the reference week, equal to our call of +73 bcf and 5 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median of +68 bcf. We do not expect life to return to “the old normal” when the country starts reopening (presumably) at the beginning of May...To make an analogy, starting the economy will be similar to a “ black start ” – the process of restoring an electric grid to operation without relying on the external electric power transmission network to r.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| April 10, 2020
April 9, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a +38 bcf injection into inventory for the reference week, 1 bcf lower than our call of +39 bcf and 9 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median of +29 bcf. A loaf of bread has more energy than a stick of dynamite (5.8 MJ vs. 2.1 MJ), even more than a kilogram of TNT (4.2 MJ), which can obliterate a small vehicle. The main differentiating factor in their deployment is how fast that energy is released (power). The longer it takes to release energy, the less damaging they are t.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| April 03, 2020
April 2, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a -19 bcf withdrawal from inventories this week, 11 bcf lower than our call of -30 bcf and 7 bcf lower than the Bloomberg median of -26 bcf. This report contains our balances and our end of injection season storage estimate.
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| April 03, 2020
April 2, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a -19 bcf withdrawal from inventories this week, 11 bcf lower than our call of -30 bcf and 7 bcf lower than the Bloomberg median of -26 bcf. This week's report contains our balances and our end of injection season storage estimate.
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| March 26, 2020
March 26, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a -29 bcf withdrawal from inventories this week, equal to our call and the Bloomberg median of -29 bcf. In this week’s report, we provide updates to our quantified impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on US natural gas balances, as well as develop the discussion of potential solutions to this worse-case scenario.
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| March 20, 2020
[EDITED] March 19, 2020
Note: We edited the report for style and minor wording changes. None of numbers were changed. Both the original and edited copies can be accessed through the links. Dear , The EIA reported a -9 bcf withdrawal from inventories this week, 1 bcf lower than our call of -10 bcf and 4 bcf lower than the Bloomberg median. In this week’s report, we quantify the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on US natural gas balances based on the experiences of China and Italy. This exercise is built upon the guidel.....