EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| February 06, 2020
February 6, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a -137 bcf withdrawal from inventories this week, 6 bcf higher than our call of -131 bcf and 7 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median. South Central posted another large draw from Non-Salt fields, only 3 bcf lower than 5-year records, which is surprising given the milder reference week. While the majority of producers are yet to report their 4Q19 earnings and elaborate on their 2020 plans, once-removed players already provided some insight into 2020 E&P Capex allocations. .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 30, 2020
January 30, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a -201 bcf withdrawal from inventories this week. This was 2 bcf lower than the Bloomberg median and 5 bcf lower than our call. Relative to the same week in the previous 5 years, South Central posted record draws for Salt and equaled record draws for Non-Salt inventories. A further examination of week-on-week pricing and flow volumes on Transco would have helped us better calibrate the breakdown between the two regions, by reminding us of a bygone era where Transco “ser.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 23, 2020
January 23, 2020
The EIA reported a -92 bcf decrease in inventories this week, a 3 bcf larger draw than the Bloomberg median and 1 bcf higher than our expectations... At the regional level, this is the second week in a row where our non-salt South Central estimates fell short of the EIA-reported draw. Only a small portion of those fields are visible through pipeline flows, and at this point it is not clear to us whether the strong draws are due to contractual/operational obligations or strong demand triggered by.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 16, 2020
January 16, 2020
The EIA reported a -109 bcf decrease in inventories this week, a 13 bcf larger draw than the Bloomberg median and 12 bcf higher than our expectations. Our East, Mountain and salt dome estimates were in line with the released numbers. We underestimated South Central non-salts, Midwest and Pacific draws. One Midwest model showed -34 bcf, and we labeled it an outlier. Pacific and South Central non-salt pulls were beyond the range of our models’ output. As access to capital becomes more difficult – .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 09, 2020
January 9, 2020
The EIA reported a -44 bcf decrease in inventories this week, a 6 bcf smaller draw than the Bloomberg median and 8 bcf below our expectations. Our East and South Central non-salt inventory changes that we were particularly concerned about came in line with the EIA numbers, while draws were overestimated in the remaining regions by 1-2 bcf for a total of 7 bcf (the sum of EIA’s regional components add up to 45 bcf)... Combined with a short market and lower number of rigs (horizontal gas rigs drop.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 03, 2020
January 3, 2020
The EIA reported a -58 bcf decrease in inventories this week, a 4 bcf smaller draw than the Bloomberg median. The market took advantage of the mild holiday week to inject into salts, with the largest week-on-week swing observed in the South Central. The week ended yesterday was yet another mild holiday week, and December withdrawals will likely total around the 415 bcf mark, compared to the 545 bcf assumption we had on December 12. Milder weather was the driving force behind that miss, which als.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| December 12, 2019
December 12, 2019
The EIA reported a -73 bcf decrease in inventories this week, a 4 bcf smaller draw than the Bloomberg median and the inventory drop we had estimated. Our largest error was in the South Central region, where non-salt draws were smaller than our models had anticipated. Despite its smaller size, the dichotomy of salt and non-salt behavior within the South Central footprint is still impressive. Critical notices and maintenance schedules recently entered our daily reading list and we simply lack the .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| December 05, 2019
December 5, 2019
Good afternoon , The EIA reported a -19 bcf decrease in inventories this week – we had -11 bcf. Last Wednesday, before the reference week was completed, our estimate was -19 bcf. That forecast was based on S/D balances while Tuesday’s estimate was derived from flow models, which included reported storage inventory from large systems in the Northeast. Flow-based models aggregate gas volumes scheduled to enter or leave storage facilities connected to interstate pipelines and estimate nationwide in.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 27, 2019
November 27, 2019
Good afternoon , The EIA reported a -28 bcf decrease in inventories this week even though the sum of individual components point to a larger draw. We were concerned about the range of estimates our models provided yesterday: various methodologies provided a range from -46 bcf to -23 bcf, with the regional and flow models setting the two extremes, respectively. A wide range is somewhat expected during weeks of abrupt changes in weather – hence demand – patterns, but this instance presented record.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 21, 2019
November 21, 2019
Good afternoon , The EIA reported a -94 bcf decrease in inventories this week. The draw was 4 bcf above our expectations, and 4 bcf greater than the Bloomberg median. Regionally, the interruption of the East/Midwest gas flows due to the Nexus outage (Figure 1) contributed to a large miss in the breakdown but not in the combined volume for the two regions. Our largest miss was in the South Central non-salt fields. The shutdown of the coal-fired Navajo Generating Station earlier this week took 2,2.....