EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 14, 2019
November 14, 2019
Good afternoon , Contrary to our expectation of a single-digit withdrawal, the EIA reported a small injection today. Salt builds and Pacific withdrawals aside, our regional breakdown this week was off by a wide margin. One way we approach inventory change is the weekly differential in balances, and within that context, this week’s number is difficult to present as a continuation to last week’s EIA release. Since we did not make significant changes to our models over the two-week period, we suspe.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 07, 2019
November 7, 2019
Good afternoon , We knew that the regional cold front this time of the year would make forecasting the number tricky but the extent of the miss in the non-salts South Central is puzzling. Emission events at liquids processing plants for the time frame under consideration refer to a third-party pipeline outage, but do not name the pipe (or capacity/duration). Our early forecast for next week’s number points to a single-digit draw . Based on the latest weather forecasts, the following two weeks w.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| October 31, 2019
October 31, 2019
Good afternoon , This was an uneventful storage number: the EIA reported a +89 bcf build, 2 bcf above our estimate. The main miss in our models came from an underestimation of salt dome injections. The final week of the injection season – the week ending today/tomorrow – will bring quite a change to inventory dynamics and an early challenge to many models, including ours. Our early forecast for next week’s number shows an injection in the high-30s (bcf) range. Peter Sinks, a natural sinkhole in .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| October 24, 2019
October 24, 2019
Dear , The EIA reported a +87 bcf increase in inventories this week (despite the regional totals summing to 88). The build was -1 bcf below both our expectations and the Bloomberg median. Please follow the link below to find our commentary: All eyes remain on the South Central; this week saw the second highest South Central autumn build on record and the highest since 2011. The report also showed South Central inventories surpass the 5-year average level...
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| October 17, 2019
October 17, 2019
Dear , The EIA reported a +104 bcf increase in inventories this week. The build was -4 bcf below our expectations and -5 bcf below the Bloomberg median. Please follow the link below to find our commentary: Regionally the miss looks even more pronounced as the regional builds totaled +102 bcf. Our biggest misses were overestimates in the Pacific region and South Central salts. Despite the build coming in below market expectations inventories still reached a milestone, surpassing the 5-year averag.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| October 10, 2019
October 10, 2019
Dear , Please note our extended U.S. and Canada tables covering the injection season are included in the attachment. The EIA reported a +98 bcf increase in inventories this week. The build was -2 bcf below our expectations and in-line with the Bloomberg median. Please follow the link below to find our commentary: Our miss in both the Mountain and Pacific regions is likely attributable to the early cold snap in the western half of the continent during the reference week. The early cold is difficu.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| October 03, 2019
October 03, 2019
Dear , The EIA reported a +112 bcf increase in inventories this week. The build was aligned with our expectations and +5 bcf above the Bloomberg median. Please follow the link below to find our commentary: While our accuracy on this week’s total build was a pleasant surprise, we can’t deny a certain amount of the “precision” is attributable to luck, especially concerning non-salts, where we are still trying to improve on our lackluster track record this injection season. This week’s report showe.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| September 26, 2019
September 26, 2019
The EIA reported a +102 bcf increase in inventories this week. The build was +10 bcf higher than both our forecast and the Bloomberg median. We underestimated builds in both the East and South Central this week. Our early forecast for next week’s number is an injection in the mid to low-110 bcf range. In our Tuesday report we highlighted the substantial week-over-week drop in Eastern power burns, today’s reported injection suggests the drop was even larger than our model anticipated. Tight pip.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| September 19, 2019
September 19, 2019
The EIA reported an +84 bcf increase in inventories this week. The build was +8 bcf higher than both our forecast and the Bloomberg median. Our two largest regional misses this week were in the East, which came as a surprise and South Central non-salts which were less surprising given our summer track record. Our early forecast for next week’s number is an injection in the mid-80 bcf range. Pipeline constraints in the Northeast likely contributed to our miss this week…
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| September 12, 2019
September 12, 2019
Please note our extended U.S. and Canada tables covering the injection season are included in the attachment. The EIA reported a +78 bcf increase in inventories this week. The build was -5 bcf lower than our forecast and -3 bcf lower than the Bloomberg median. Most of our miss was once again in the South Central non-salt number. Our early forecast for next week’s number is an injection in the high-70 bcf range. At this point we run the risk of sounding like a broken record by attributing.....