EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 03, 2020
January 3, 2020
The EIA reported a -58 bcf decrease in inventories this week, a 4 bcf smaller draw than the Bloomberg median. The market took advantage of the mild holiday week to inject into salts, with the largest week-on-week swing observed in the South Central. The week ended yesterday was yet another mild holiday week, and December withdrawals will likely total around the 415 bcf mark, compared to the 545 bcf assumption we had on December 12. Milder weather was the driving force behind that miss, which als.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| December 12, 2019
December 12, 2019
The EIA reported a -73 bcf decrease in inventories this week, a 4 bcf smaller draw than the Bloomberg median and the inventory drop we had estimated. Our largest error was in the South Central region, where non-salt draws were smaller than our models had anticipated. Despite its smaller size, the dichotomy of salt and non-salt behavior within the South Central footprint is still impressive. Critical notices and maintenance schedules recently entered our daily reading list and we simply lack the .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| December 05, 2019
December 5, 2019
Good afternoon , The EIA reported a -19 bcf decrease in inventories this week – we had -11 bcf. Last Wednesday, before the reference week was completed, our estimate was -19 bcf. That forecast was based on S/D balances while Tuesday’s estimate was derived from flow models, which included reported storage inventory from large systems in the Northeast. Flow-based models aggregate gas volumes scheduled to enter or leave storage facilities connected to interstate pipelines and estimate nationwide in.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 27, 2019
November 27, 2019
Good afternoon , The EIA reported a -28 bcf decrease in inventories this week even though the sum of individual components point to a larger draw. We were concerned about the range of estimates our models provided yesterday: various methodologies provided a range from -46 bcf to -23 bcf, with the regional and flow models setting the two extremes, respectively. A wide range is somewhat expected during weeks of abrupt changes in weather – hence demand – patterns, but this instance presented record.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 21, 2019
November 21, 2019
Good afternoon , The EIA reported a -94 bcf decrease in inventories this week. The draw was 4 bcf above our expectations, and 4 bcf greater than the Bloomberg median. Regionally, the interruption of the East/Midwest gas flows due to the Nexus outage (Figure 1) contributed to a large miss in the breakdown but not in the combined volume for the two regions. Our largest miss was in the South Central non-salt fields. The shutdown of the coal-fired Navajo Generating Station earlier this week took 2,2.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 14, 2019
November 14, 2019
Good afternoon , Contrary to our expectation of a single-digit withdrawal, the EIA reported a small injection today. Salt builds and Pacific withdrawals aside, our regional breakdown this week was off by a wide margin. One way we approach inventory change is the weekly differential in balances, and within that context, this week’s number is difficult to present as a continuation to last week’s EIA release. Since we did not make significant changes to our models over the two-week period, we suspe.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 07, 2019
November 7, 2019
Good afternoon , We knew that the regional cold front this time of the year would make forecasting the number tricky but the extent of the miss in the non-salts South Central is puzzling. Emission events at liquids processing plants for the time frame under consideration refer to a third-party pipeline outage, but do not name the pipe (or capacity/duration). Our early forecast for next week’s number points to a single-digit draw . Based on the latest weather forecasts, the following two weeks w.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| October 31, 2019
October 31, 2019
Good afternoon , This was an uneventful storage number: the EIA reported a +89 bcf build, 2 bcf above our estimate. The main miss in our models came from an underestimation of salt dome injections. The final week of the injection season – the week ending today/tomorrow – will bring quite a change to inventory dynamics and an early challenge to many models, including ours. Our early forecast for next week’s number shows an injection in the high-30s (bcf) range. Peter Sinks, a natural sinkhole in .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| October 24, 2019
October 24, 2019
Dear , The EIA reported a +87 bcf increase in inventories this week (despite the regional totals summing to 88). The build was -1 bcf below both our expectations and the Bloomberg median. Please follow the link below to find our commentary: All eyes remain on the South Central; this week saw the second highest South Central autumn build on record and the highest since 2011. The report also showed South Central inventories surpass the 5-year average level...
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| October 17, 2019
October 17, 2019
Dear , The EIA reported a +104 bcf increase in inventories this week. The build was -4 bcf below our expectations and -5 bcf below the Bloomberg median. Please follow the link below to find our commentary: Regionally the miss looks even more pronounced as the regional builds totaled +102 bcf. Our biggest misses were overestimates in the Pacific region and South Central salts. Despite the build coming in below market expectations inventories still reached a milestone, surpassing the 5-year averag.....