EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| February 07, 2019
February 7, 2019
Please note our extended U.S. and Canada tables covering the withdrawal season are included in the attachment. The EIA reported a -237 bcf decrease in inventories this week. This week’s draw was -5 bcf lower than our estimate and -10 bcf below the Bloomberg median. Our largest miss was in the South Central where we overestimated withdrawals, a lack of visibility around freeze-offs and absolute daily demand levels in Texas resulted in uncertainty around storage pulls during the cold snap. O.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 31, 2019
January 31, 2019
The EIA reported a -173 bcf decrease in inventories this week. This week’s draw was 15 bcf lower than our estimate and 22 bcf below the Bloomberg median. With this week’s lower than expected draw, our bias mentioned on Tuesday proved to be true as the error term in our models, which had been growing over the past 3-weeks, virtually disappeared this week. As mentioned on Tuesday, the upset would likely come from lower realized holiday demand levels, especially given that the holiday Monday was .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 24, 2019
January 24, 2019
The EIA reported a -163 bcf decrease in inventories this week. This week’s draw was 8 bcf greater than our estimate and 5 bcf above the Bloomberg median. As mentioned in our commentary on Wednesday, the below-average draws over the last 4 weeks likely led us to underestimate this week’s pull due to a bias in our error term, especially in the East region. Our initial estimate for the week ending January 24th is a draw in the 190s. If weather forecasts hold the coming week will likely be one.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 17, 2019
January 17, 2019
Our initial estimate for the week ending January 17th is a draw in the high 150s. While the week ending January 17th is expected to show a draw close to the 5-yr average, if significant HDDs do materialize for the end of January we could once again test the lows of the 5-yr range…
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 10, 2019
January 10, 2019
Please note our extended U.S. and Canada tables covering the withdrawal season are included in the attachment. Based on the initial breakdown of our estimate for next week, we expect that, as of today East and Midwest inventories should be flat or at a surplus to last year’s levels. With four weeks in a row of mid-winter injections, this should put salt inventory levels at a ~100 bcf surplus to last year as of today…
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 04, 2019
January 4, 2018
The EIA reported a -20 bcf decrease in inventories this week. It turns out our bearish estimate was in fact too bullish, with the number coming in -8 bcf below our estimate and a stunning -25 bcf below the Bloomberg median. The regions where we saw the largest misses were the Midwest, where our models overestimated draws by 4 bcf and Salt Cavern storage in the South Central where we underestimated injections by 4 bcf. Our initial estimate for the week ending January 3rd is a draw in the high.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| December 20, 2018
December 20, 2018
Please note: due to the upcoming holidays this will be the final Natural Gas EIA Storage report of the year, the reports will resume on the first week of January. The EIA reported a -141 bcf decrease in inventory this week. This draw was +6 bcf more than our estimate and +7 bcf above the Bloomberg median. Our initial estimate for the week ending December 20th is a draw in the high 40s. The two regions where we saw the largest misses this week were the Northeast which drew 3 bcf more than.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| December 13, 2018
December 13, 2018
Please note our extended U.S. and Canada tables covering the withdrawal season are included in the attachment. The EIA reported a -77 bcf decrease in inventory this week (despite the regional totals implying a -79 bcf draw). This draw was +1 bcf more than our estimate and -3 bcf below the Bloomberg median. Our initial estimate for the week ending December 13th is a draw in the high 130s. While other regions and non-salts continued pulling this week, salt caverns bucked the trend by putting.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| December 07, 2018
December 7, 2018
The EIA reported a -63 bcf decrease in inventory this week. This draw was +5 bcf more than our estimate and in line with the Bloomberg median. The region where we saw our largest miss this week was the Midwest where we underestimated draws by 5 bcf. Our initial estimate for the week ending December 6th is a draw in the mid to high 70s. The Northeast saw the largest draw among all regions for a second week in a row, highlighting that despite continued growth in the Appalachian basin and even.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 29, 2018
November 29, 2018
The EIA reported a -59 bcf decrease in inventory this week. This draw was 15 bcf less than our estimate and 22 bcf lower than the Bloomberg median. The regions where we saw our largest misses this week were the South Central and Midwest. Our overestimate of South Central draws this week was an embarrassing 16 bcf. During the peak cold temperatures last winter, the salt dome injection-withdrawal relationship became the main lever in balancing the market. Extremely low inventories forced injec.....