EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 21, 2018
November 21, 2018
The EIA reported a -134 bcf decrease in inventory this week. This draw was 15 bcf higher than our estimate and 25 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median. The region where we posted our largest error was the Midwest where we underestimated today’s pull by 7 bcf. Our regional balance and scrape models showed a significant amount of disagreement in the Midwest during the reference week….
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 15, 2018
November 15, 2018
The week ending November 15 will bring the inaugural withdrawal of the season, and the earliest triple-digit pull of any winter. From a supply and demand perspective, the week ending today can be interpreted as a practice run for the worst-case scenario…
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 08, 2018
November 8, 2018
Please note our extended U.S. and Canada tables covering the withdrawal season are included in the attachment. The EIA reported a +65 bcf increase in inventory this week. This was +8 bcf higher than our estimate and +6 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median. The region where we posted the largest miss was the South Central, specifically salt injections, which came in 6 bcf higher than our estimate. Swings in cash prices and the forward curve during the reference week likely allowed more gas to.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 01, 2018
November 1, 2018
The EIA reported a +48 bcf increase in inventory this week. This was -1 bcf below our estimate and -5 bcf below the Bloomberg median. The region where we saw the largest miss was the East, where we overestimated injections by 3 bcf. Our preliminary estimate for the week ending November 1st is an injection of 54 bcf. This week’s modest injection in the East marked an early shift towards withdrawal season. The low build this week cut the injection season short relative to previous years, com.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| October 25, 2018
October 25, 2018
The EIA reported a +58 bcf increase in inventory this week. Because of the 5 bcf reclassification in the South Central non-salts, this +58 bcf increase in inventory actually corresponds to a +63 bcf injection. The injection was +8 bcf higher than our estimate and +9 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median. There is one more caveat to the numbers released today: the sum of both regional “net change” and “implied flow” published by the EIA are 2 bcf below the headline total (56 vs 58 bcf and 61.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| October 18, 2018
October 18, 2018
The EIA reported a +81 bcf net build in inventory this week. The injection was -5 bcf lower than our estimate and -4 bcf lower than the Bloomberg median. The majority of our error came from the Mountain region this week, where the number came in at -3 bcf draw compared to our assumption of a +1 bcf build. Interestingly enough our regional balance model predicted a -2 bcf draw, while that number may have been closer, the oddly high variation between our scrape and flow models this week created .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| October 11, 2018
October 11, 2018
Please note our extended U.S. and Canada tables covering the injection season are included in the attachment. The EIA reported a +90 bcf net build in inventory this week. The injection was -7 bcf lower than our estimate and -2 bcf lower than the Bloomberg median. The majority of our error was from an overestimate for Midwest injections this week, stemming mainly from our regional balance model (our scrape model was closer). For this week’s number, part of our miss was likely an optimistic ov.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| October 04, 2018
October 4, 2018
The EIA reported a +98 bcf net build in inventory this week. The injection was +10 bcf higher than our estimate and +11 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median. The majority of our error this week was again in the South Central, the +22 bcf injection was +8 bcf more than our models expected, while last week our models showed a -7 bcf underestimate in draws. The 33 bcf swing week over week and large forecast error in this region suggests we may need to take a more detailed look at our South Centra.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| September 27, 2018
September 27, 2018
The EIA reported a +46 bcf net build in inventory this week. The injection was -8 bcf lower than our estimate and -15 bcf lower than the Bloomberg median. The majority of our error is attributable to the -11 bcf draw from salt cavern storage this week, which was 6 bcf more than our model expected. Our preliminary estimate for next week’s number is an injection is in the mid-80 bcf range. Transco’s surprising system storage report published on Monday showing a net draw from inventory this w.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| September 20, 2018
September 20, 2018
The EIA reported a +86 bcf net build in inventory this week. The injection was both +5 bcf higher than our estimate and the Bloomberg median. The majority of our error is attributable to the strong 30 bcf injection in the East. We can trace most of the error back to our power model, 20/20 hindsight shows a drop of 41 PWCDDs in the East from 96 to 57, should have equated to a larger drop in power demand than the 1.5 bcf/d our model showed. The power burns in the East during the reference were l.....