EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| March 07, 2019
March 7, 2019
Please note our extended U.S. and Canada tables covering the withdrawal season are included in the attachment. The EIA reported a -149 bcf decrease in inventories this week, despite the regions totaling to a -147 bcf drop. This week’s official draw was +4 bcf higher than both our estimate and the Bloomberg median. Almost all our miss this week was in the East, where we underestimated the draw by 5 bcf. Our initial estimate for the week ending March 7th is a draw in the 220 bcf range. Wit.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| February 28, 2019
February 28, 2019
The EIA reported a -166 bcf decrease in inventories this week. This week’s draw was -5 bcf lower than our estimate and -8 bcf lower than the Bloomberg median. East, Midwest and Mountain regions all showed draws slightly below our estimate, leading to the 5 bcf miss. Our initial estimate for the week ending February 28th is a draw in the 150 bcf range. Initial nominations data has led us to revise our estimate for the coming storage week higher. Scrapes and regional balances both show stron.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| February 21, 2019
February 21, 2019
The EIA reported a -177 bcf decrease in inventories this week. This week’s draw was +2 bcf higher than our estimate and +8 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median. Our overestimate in the Mountain offset an underestimate in the South Central, keeping us close to the reported number. Our initial estimate for the week ending February 21st is a draw in the 170 bcf range. Looking ahead, if our forecast holds true for the next two weeks, we will enter March around the 1.4 tcf level. March itself h.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| February 14, 2019
February 14, 2019
The EIA reported a -78 bcf decrease in inventories this week. This week’s draw was -9 bcf lower than our estimate and -4 bcf below the Bloomberg median. Almost the entirety of our miss this week came in the Midwest where we overestimated draws by 10 bcf. Our initial estimate for the week ending February 14th is a draw in the low-170s. This week saw a massive swing in Midwest storage, after last week’s draw came in above the 5-year range this week’s draw plummeted, coming in below the 5-yea.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| February 07, 2019
February 7, 2019
Please note our extended U.S. and Canada tables covering the withdrawal season are included in the attachment. The EIA reported a -237 bcf decrease in inventories this week. This week’s draw was -5 bcf lower than our estimate and -10 bcf below the Bloomberg median. Our largest miss was in the South Central where we overestimated withdrawals, a lack of visibility around freeze-offs and absolute daily demand levels in Texas resulted in uncertainty around storage pulls during the cold snap. O.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 31, 2019
January 31, 2019
The EIA reported a -173 bcf decrease in inventories this week. This week’s draw was 15 bcf lower than our estimate and 22 bcf below the Bloomberg median. With this week’s lower than expected draw, our bias mentioned on Tuesday proved to be true as the error term in our models, which had been growing over the past 3-weeks, virtually disappeared this week. As mentioned on Tuesday, the upset would likely come from lower realized holiday demand levels, especially given that the holiday Monday was .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 24, 2019
January 24, 2019
The EIA reported a -163 bcf decrease in inventories this week. This week’s draw was 8 bcf greater than our estimate and 5 bcf above the Bloomberg median. As mentioned in our commentary on Wednesday, the below-average draws over the last 4 weeks likely led us to underestimate this week’s pull due to a bias in our error term, especially in the East region. Our initial estimate for the week ending January 24th is a draw in the 190s. If weather forecasts hold the coming week will likely be one.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 17, 2019
January 17, 2019
Our initial estimate for the week ending January 17th is a draw in the high 150s. While the week ending January 17th is expected to show a draw close to the 5-yr average, if significant HDDs do materialize for the end of January we could once again test the lows of the 5-yr range…
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 10, 2019
January 10, 2019
Please note our extended U.S. and Canada tables covering the withdrawal season are included in the attachment. Based on the initial breakdown of our estimate for next week, we expect that, as of today East and Midwest inventories should be flat or at a surplus to last year’s levels. With four weeks in a row of mid-winter injections, this should put salt inventory levels at a ~100 bcf surplus to last year as of today…
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 04, 2019
January 4, 2018
The EIA reported a -20 bcf decrease in inventories this week. It turns out our bearish estimate was in fact too bullish, with the number coming in -8 bcf below our estimate and a stunning -25 bcf below the Bloomberg median. The regions where we saw the largest misses were the Midwest, where our models overestimated draws by 4 bcf and Salt Cavern storage in the South Central where we underestimated injections by 4 bcf. Our initial estimate for the week ending January 3rd is a draw in the high.....