EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| December 20, 2018
December 20, 2018
Please note: due to the upcoming holidays this will be the final Natural Gas EIA Storage report of the year, the reports will resume on the first week of January. The EIA reported a -141 bcf decrease in inventory this week. This draw was +6 bcf more than our estimate and +7 bcf above the Bloomberg median. Our initial estimate for the week ending December 20th is a draw in the high 40s. The two regions where we saw the largest misses this week were the Northeast which drew 3 bcf more than.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| December 13, 2018
December 13, 2018
Please note our extended U.S. and Canada tables covering the withdrawal season are included in the attachment. The EIA reported a -77 bcf decrease in inventory this week (despite the regional totals implying a -79 bcf draw). This draw was +1 bcf more than our estimate and -3 bcf below the Bloomberg median. Our initial estimate for the week ending December 13th is a draw in the high 130s. While other regions and non-salts continued pulling this week, salt caverns bucked the trend by putting.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| December 07, 2018
December 7, 2018
The EIA reported a -63 bcf decrease in inventory this week. This draw was +5 bcf more than our estimate and in line with the Bloomberg median. The region where we saw our largest miss this week was the Midwest where we underestimated draws by 5 bcf. Our initial estimate for the week ending December 6th is a draw in the mid to high 70s. The Northeast saw the largest draw among all regions for a second week in a row, highlighting that despite continued growth in the Appalachian basin and even.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 29, 2018
November 29, 2018
The EIA reported a -59 bcf decrease in inventory this week. This draw was 15 bcf less than our estimate and 22 bcf lower than the Bloomberg median. The regions where we saw our largest misses this week were the South Central and Midwest. Our overestimate of South Central draws this week was an embarrassing 16 bcf. During the peak cold temperatures last winter, the salt dome injection-withdrawal relationship became the main lever in balancing the market. Extremely low inventories forced injec.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 21, 2018
November 21, 2018
The EIA reported a -134 bcf decrease in inventory this week. This draw was 15 bcf higher than our estimate and 25 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median. The region where we posted our largest error was the Midwest where we underestimated today’s pull by 7 bcf. Our regional balance and scrape models showed a significant amount of disagreement in the Midwest during the reference week….
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 15, 2018
November 15, 2018
The week ending November 15 will bring the inaugural withdrawal of the season, and the earliest triple-digit pull of any winter. From a supply and demand perspective, the week ending today can be interpreted as a practice run for the worst-case scenario…
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 08, 2018
November 8, 2018
Please note our extended U.S. and Canada tables covering the withdrawal season are included in the attachment. The EIA reported a +65 bcf increase in inventory this week. This was +8 bcf higher than our estimate and +6 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median. The region where we posted the largest miss was the South Central, specifically salt injections, which came in 6 bcf higher than our estimate. Swings in cash prices and the forward curve during the reference week likely allowed more gas to.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 01, 2018
November 1, 2018
The EIA reported a +48 bcf increase in inventory this week. This was -1 bcf below our estimate and -5 bcf below the Bloomberg median. The region where we saw the largest miss was the East, where we overestimated injections by 3 bcf. Our preliminary estimate for the week ending November 1st is an injection of 54 bcf. This week’s modest injection in the East marked an early shift towards withdrawal season. The low build this week cut the injection season short relative to previous years, com.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| October 25, 2018
October 25, 2018
The EIA reported a +58 bcf increase in inventory this week. Because of the 5 bcf reclassification in the South Central non-salts, this +58 bcf increase in inventory actually corresponds to a +63 bcf injection. The injection was +8 bcf higher than our estimate and +9 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median. There is one more caveat to the numbers released today: the sum of both regional “net change” and “implied flow” published by the EIA are 2 bcf below the headline total (56 vs 58 bcf and 61.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| October 18, 2018
October 18, 2018
The EIA reported a +81 bcf net build in inventory this week. The injection was -5 bcf lower than our estimate and -4 bcf lower than the Bloomberg median. The majority of our error came from the Mountain region this week, where the number came in at -3 bcf draw compared to our assumption of a +1 bcf build. Interestingly enough our regional balance model predicted a -2 bcf draw, while that number may have been closer, the oddly high variation between our scrape and flow models this week created .....