EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| October 11, 2018
October 11, 2018
Please note our extended U.S. and Canada tables covering the injection season are included in the attachment. The EIA reported a +90 bcf net build in inventory this week. The injection was -7 bcf lower than our estimate and -2 bcf lower than the Bloomberg median. The majority of our error was from an overestimate for Midwest injections this week, stemming mainly from our regional balance model (our scrape model was closer). For this week’s number, part of our miss was likely an optimistic ov.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| October 04, 2018
October 4, 2018
The EIA reported a +98 bcf net build in inventory this week. The injection was +10 bcf higher than our estimate and +11 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median. The majority of our error this week was again in the South Central, the +22 bcf injection was +8 bcf more than our models expected, while last week our models showed a -7 bcf underestimate in draws. The 33 bcf swing week over week and large forecast error in this region suggests we may need to take a more detailed look at our South Centra.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| September 27, 2018
September 27, 2018
The EIA reported a +46 bcf net build in inventory this week. The injection was -8 bcf lower than our estimate and -15 bcf lower than the Bloomberg median. The majority of our error is attributable to the -11 bcf draw from salt cavern storage this week, which was 6 bcf more than our model expected. Our preliminary estimate for next week’s number is an injection is in the mid-80 bcf range. Transco’s surprising system storage report published on Monday showing a net draw from inventory this w.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| September 20, 2018
September 20, 2018
The EIA reported a +86 bcf net build in inventory this week. The injection was both +5 bcf higher than our estimate and the Bloomberg median. The majority of our error is attributable to the strong 30 bcf injection in the East. We can trace most of the error back to our power model, 20/20 hindsight shows a drop of 41 PWCDDs in the East from 96 to 57, should have equated to a larger drop in power demand than the 1.5 bcf/d our model showed. The power burns in the East during the reference were l.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| September 13, 2018
September 13, 2018
Please note our extended U.S. and Canada tables covering the injection season are included in the attachment. The EIA reported a +69 bcf net build in inventory this week. The injection was +1 bcf higher than our estimate and +3 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median. The regional breakdown equated to a +67 bcf injection, below the reported total +69 bcf injection due to “independent rounding.” However with the number falling within market consensus and the low Bloomberg survey standard deviati.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| September 06, 2018
September 6, 2018
The EIA reported a +63 bcf net build in inventory this week. The injection was -3 bcf lower than our estimate and +2 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median. Almost the entirety of the error in our estimate was in the East, which injected 3 bcf less than our estimate, suggesting our models underestimated the full impact of the late season heat on power burns during the reference week. Our preliminary estimate for next week’s number is an injection in the high 60 to low 70 bcf range. While the.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| August 30, 2018
August 30, 2018
The EIA reported a +70 bcf net build in inventory this week. The injection was -3 bcf lower than our estimate and -8 bcf lower than the Bloomberg median. While our revision this morning got us closer to the salt number this week, the Pacific and Midwest both injected more than we predicted, making our original Tuesday estimate of a 70 bcf build ironically correct – albeit for the wrong reasons. Our preliminary estimate for next week’s number is an injection in the low to mid-60 bcf range. .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| August 23, 2018
August 23, 2018
The EIA reported a +48 bcf net build in inventory this week. The injection was -7 bcf lower than our estimate and -2 bcf lower than the Bloomberg median. Almost the entirety of our miss this week was in the South Central, which was -8 bcf lower than our flow model for the region. Our preliminary estimate for next week’s number is an injection in the mid 60 bcf range. If we further break down the South Central, the majority of our miss boiled down to salt cavern draws this week. Our sample .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| August 16, 2018
August 16, 2018
The EIA reported a +33 bcf net build in inventory this week. The injection was +1 bcf higher than our estimate and +4 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median. Most of our miss this week was in our regional breakdown where we overestimated East injections are underestimated Midwest injections. Our preliminary estimate for next week’s number is an injection in the low 50 bcf range. This week again posted a strong summer draw on South Central storage, in part these draws are due to demand within.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| August 09, 2018
August 9, 2018
Please note our extended U.S. and Canada tables covering the injection season are included in the attachment. The EIA reported a +46 bcf net build in inventory this week. The injection was -1 bcf lower than our estimate and -1 bcf lower than the Bloomberg median. Our overestimate for injections in the East and Midwest were offset by an overestimate in South Central draws this week. Our preliminary estimate for next week’s number is an injection in the mid-30 bcf range. At a +46 bcf injec.....