EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| April 26, 2018
April 26, 2018
The EIA reported a -18 bcf net change in inventory this week. The draw was +5 bcf stronger than our estimate and +6 bcf stronger than the Bloomberg median. Regionally our largest miss was in the Midwest where the draw was larger than estimated. Both our models underestimated the Midwest this week: our regional balance model likely had difficulties estimating the high shoulder season RCI demand, while our flow model probably missed some behind utility storage pulls in Michigan (the jump in Mi.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| April 19, 2018
April 19, 2018
The EIA reported a -36 bcf net change in inventory this week. The draw was 5 bcf stronger than our estimate and 10 bcf stronger than the Bloomberg median. Our current estimate for next week is another draw, this time in the mid-teens. Based on shifts in flow patterns we knew the South Central number was going to make or break our estimate this week. Much colder than normal weather in the Northeast (NE) and Midwest (MW) resulted in a large downward swing in flows to the Gulf (figure 1). What .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| April 12, 2018
April 12, 2018
Please note our extended U.S. and Canada tables covering the withdrawal season are included in the attachment. The EIA reported a -19 bcf net change in inventory this week. The draw was higher than both our estimate and the Bloomberg median by 7 bcf. Our current estimate for next week is a draw in the mid-30s. The bust in our models came from our Midwest estimate, where both our flow and regional models showed significantly lower estimates compared to the reported number. What caused the e.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| April 05, 2018
April 5, 2018
The EIA reported a -29 bcf net change in inventory this week, but implied flow out of storage was only -20 bcf due to a reclassification in non-salt fields in the South Central. The net change was in line with our estimate but implied flow was way off. Bloomberg median was at -26 bcf, with average expectation at -27 bcf. As of this morning, most pipelines are once again reporting scheduled volumes. Many storage facilities, however, still have not backfilled their activity data, whic.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| March 29, 2018
March 29, 2018
The EIA reported a -63 bcf withdrawal for the week ending March 22, 2018; a 4 bcf weaker pull than our estimate and 8 bcf weaker pull than the Bloomberg median. Our overestimate for the Northeast draws this week was partially offset by our overestimate of South Central injections. Our preliminary expectation for next week is a draw in the -27 bcf draw. As we begin to slowly shift to the injection season, evolving flow patterns are already providing some interesting insight on the early part .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| March 22, 2018
March 22, 2018
The EIA reported a -86 bcf withdrawal for the week ending March 15, 2018; a 1 bcf stronger pull than our estimate and 2 bcf weaker pull than the Bloomberg median. Our overestimate of South Central draws this week was offset by an underestimate of Midwest pulls. Our preliminary expectation for next week is a draw in the mid -70 bcf range. This week’s withdrawal puts inventories back in line with Winter 14/15 and based on current weather forecasts our models expect that we will end the season .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| March 15, 2018
March 15, 2018
The EIA reported a -93 bcf withdrawal for the week ending March 8, 2018; a 3 bcf weaker pull than our estimate and 5 bcf weaker pull than the Bloomberg median. While most of our regional models performed remarkably well this week, our South Central model overestimated the draw from non-salt storage, accounting for almost the entire 3 bcf difference. Our preliminary expectation for next week’s number is in the low 90 bcf range. While system wide deliverability concerns stoked by early January.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| March 08, 2018
March 8, 2018
Please note our extended U.S. and Canada tables covering the withdrawal season are included in the attachment. The EIA reported a -57 bcf withdrawal for the week ending March 1, 2018; a 5 bcf weaker pull than our estimate and a 3 bcf weaker pull than the Bloomberg median. Our preliminary expectation for next week’s number is in the mid to high 90 bcf range. With this week’s draw being only slightly weaker than estimates, we take the opportunity to look into northeast supply levels and new pi.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| March 01, 2018
March 1, 2018
The EIA reported a -78 bcf withdrawal for the week ending February 22nd, a 1 bcf weaker pull than our estimate and a 1 bcf stronger pull than the Bloomberg median. Over the past couple of months, we’ve been talking about the risks EIA’s monthly 2017 power burn estimates posed on summer – and especially spring – balances. Once final 2016 power burn values were released in November 2017, and the EIA incorporated non-survey data into its models, January through August 2017 estimates were push.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| February 22, 2018
February 22, 2018
The EIA reported a -124 bcf withdrawal for the week ending February 15th, a 6 bcf weaker pull than our estimate and 2 bcf stronger pull than the Bloomberg median. Our model overestimated draws in the East and the Midwest this week. Mountain inventories dropped below the 5-year range during the reference week. This comes ahead of the current week’s spiking SoCal prices and frigid temperatures across the Western half of the continent. The roots of these low inventories likely began last su.....