EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| March 15, 2018
March 15, 2018
The EIA reported a -93 bcf withdrawal for the week ending March 8, 2018; a 3 bcf weaker pull than our estimate and 5 bcf weaker pull than the Bloomberg median. While most of our regional models performed remarkably well this week, our South Central model overestimated the draw from non-salt storage, accounting for almost the entire 3 bcf difference. Our preliminary expectation for next week’s number is in the low 90 bcf range. While system wide deliverability concerns stoked by early January.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| March 08, 2018
March 8, 2018
Please note our extended U.S. and Canada tables covering the withdrawal season are included in the attachment. The EIA reported a -57 bcf withdrawal for the week ending March 1, 2018; a 5 bcf weaker pull than our estimate and a 3 bcf weaker pull than the Bloomberg median. Our preliminary expectation for next week’s number is in the mid to high 90 bcf range. With this week’s draw being only slightly weaker than estimates, we take the opportunity to look into northeast supply levels and new pi.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| March 01, 2018
March 1, 2018
The EIA reported a -78 bcf withdrawal for the week ending February 22nd, a 1 bcf weaker pull than our estimate and a 1 bcf stronger pull than the Bloomberg median. Over the past couple of months, we’ve been talking about the risks EIA’s monthly 2017 power burn estimates posed on summer – and especially spring – balances. Once final 2016 power burn values were released in November 2017, and the EIA incorporated non-survey data into its models, January through August 2017 estimates were push.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| February 22, 2018
February 22, 2018
The EIA reported a -124 bcf withdrawal for the week ending February 15th, a 6 bcf weaker pull than our estimate and 2 bcf stronger pull than the Bloomberg median. Our model overestimated draws in the East and the Midwest this week. Mountain inventories dropped below the 5-year range during the reference week. This comes ahead of the current week’s spiking SoCal prices and frigid temperatures across the Western half of the continent. The roots of these low inventories likely began last su.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| February 15, 2018
February 15, 2018
The EIA reported a -194 bcf withdrawal for the week ending February 8th, a 4 bcf stronger pull than our estimate and 8 bcf stronger pull than the Bloomberg median. What helped our estimate stay close to EIA’s reported figure this week was our Midwest regional model, which accurately predicted the larger than expected draw within that footprint (Figure 1). An updated version of the Midwest regional model covering the week ending today will be posted via ICE Chat and BBG tomorrow. While .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| February 08, 2018
February 8, 2018
Please note our extended U.S. and Canada tables covering the withdrawal season are included in the attachment. The EIA reported a -119 bcf withdrawal for the week ending February 1st, a 4 bcf stronger pull than both our estimate and the Bloomberg median. Salt domes posted another large counter seasonal injection this week, in line with our estimate of +15 bcf. This week’s injection puts salt inventories back within the 5-year range. While our model was spot on for the salt injections, the .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| February 01, 2018
February 1, 2018
Overall, the last few weeks helped (forced) us to update and recalibrate many guidelines and assumptions that were baked into our models. Based on current weather forecasts and recovery in salt dome inventories, now may be a good time to pick up the pieces and write the “lessons learned” handbook. On the supply side, the idea of virtual storage was tested. As expected, it failed to deliver under extreme conditions, and exacerbated the call on salt domes. Implementation and execution of virtual.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 25, 2018
January 25, 2018
Our argument over the past three weeks has been that the market had not been pricing in the risk of a cold February, more specifically the potential impact of a cold February on salt domes that were already on their path to historically low levels by mid-January. We believe that this week’s price action and corresponding salt dome injections mitigate that risk to a certain degree. We are also convinced that in addition to the geographical footprint of a possible cold front, the duration and dept.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 19, 2018
January 18, 2018
Over the past two weeks, we discussed the potential impact of a cold February on inventories and futures prices. We argued that heavy reliance on salt domes through the first half of January strained those high deliverability sources of supply, making late-winter deliverability profiles less robust, which in turned made the market more susceptible to price spikes in case of late-season cold. Today, we cover all North American inventories to see whether the market has alternative sources of suppl.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 12, 2018
January 11, 2018
The extent of mechanical failures freeze-offs cause may not be evident at first look. Unlike a simplistic flow/no-flow event, freeze-offs can be destructive to infrastructure and may require significant time and resources to recover from. Potential damages to pipes alone can range from cracked water pipes – which may cause an environmental nightmare – to natural gas hydrates breaking through a gas line. In last week’s report, we laid out a scenario about how a one standard deviation cold Febru.....