EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| December 07, 2017
December 7, 2017
Please note our extended U.S. and Canada tables covering the withdrawal season are included in the attachment. The EIA reported a +2 bcf injection for the week ending November 30th, this was contrary to our expectations of -2 bcf draw and the Bloomberg median estimate of a -4 bcf draw. We expected the South Central to be the wild card this week and it didn’t disappoint, injecting enough gas to offset the mild withdrawals from the remaining regions, resulting in the net injection that was r.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 30, 2017
November 30, 2017
The EIA reported a -33 bcf withdrawal for the week ending November 23rd, the number was -4 bcf weaker than our estimate and -2 bcf weaker than the Bloomberg median. The regions where we overestimated this week’s draw were the East and South Central. In the East, it appears that despite warmer temperatures week over week, strong basis prices kept exports from returning to the highs observed at the beginning of the month. With basis prices remaining strong, storage pulls were much quicker to r.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 22, 2017
November 22, 2017
The EIA reported a -46 bcf withdrawal for the week ending November 16th, the number was -2 bcf below our estimate and +9 bcf above the Bloomberg median. Despite our estimate being fairly close to the EIA’s total this week, our regional balances were somewhat off in the Midwest. Both our flow model and regional model underestimated the pull from Midwest storage. It’s likely that utilities and intrastate storage pools we can’t track pulled stronger than expected. Based on the sudden week over .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 16, 2017
November 16, 2017
The EIA reported a -18 bcf withdrawal for the week ending November 9th, the number was -13 bcf below our estimate and -3 bcf below the Bloomberg median. The transition from the injection to withdrawal season is always tricky and this year proved to be no different. Given the wide range of estimates from our storage models, we decided to rely on our regional Midwest flow model. That estimate relies on measured flows in and out of the region, modeling demand to solve for weekly inventory chang.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 09, 2017
November 9, 2017
Please note our extended U.S. and Canada tables covering the injection/withdrawal season are included in the attachment. The EIA reported a +15 bcf injection for the week ending November 2nd, the number was in line with our estimate and +1 bcf above the Bloomberg median. This week our model’s underestimate in the South Central and overestimate in the Mountain and Pacific regions fortunately offset each other, resulting in our total estimate matching the EIA’s. The strong injection in South.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 02, 2017
November 2, 2017
The EIA reported a +65 bcf injection for the week ending October 26th, -1 bcf below our estimate and +2 bcf above the Bloomberg median. While most of our regional estimates were close to the reported numbers, the region that varied the most from our estimate was the South Central, where our flow model overestimated injections. What likely lead to the discrepancy was the varying impact of cooler temperatures on regions connected to the South Central – Cooler temperatures in South East led to .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| October 26, 2017
October 26, 2017
The EIA reported a +64 bcf injection for the week ending October 19th, in-line with our estimate and 1 bcf below the Bloomberg median. As far as the regional balances are concerned – our underestimation of injections in the South Central this week offset our overestimation in the Mountain region, causing our total estimate to match the EIA’s total reported number. Still the 2 bcf miss in the mountain region was surprising, especially based on the size of the region. Our flow model continues .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| October 19, 2017
October 19, 2017
The EIA reported a +51 bcf injection for the week ending October 12th, 7 bcf higher than our estimate and 2 bcf below the Bloomberg average. After Hurricane Harvey, we suggested that the impact of hurricanes on US natural gas balances had shifted dramatically since Katrina and Rita. We argued that over the past decade extreme weather events in the GOM have caused a bigger impact on demand rather than supply. Therefore, seeing offshore shut-in volumes climb higher in the days leading to and.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| October 12, 2017
October 12, 2017
The EIA reported a +87 bcf injection for the week ending October 5th, the number was 4 bcf higher than our estimate and 2 bcf above the Bloomberg median. The region that led to most of our error was the East where our model had forecasted a much lower injection than was reported. Our flow model suggested only a modest increase week over week from the storage pools we track in the region, highly influenced by TCO reporting its lowest injection week since April. Despite this, injections in t.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| October 05, 2017
October 5, 2017
The EIA reported a +42 bcf injection for the week ending September 28th, the number was -2 bcf below our estimate and -5 bcf below the Bloomberg median. The region where we saw the largest variation was the Midwest, where our flow model had predicted lower injections. A combination of record late September heat, strong power burns, and much lower week over week injections in visible storage pools all suggested that injections would have been lower than reported in the Midwest. What likely ca.....