EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| September 28, 2017
September 28, 2017
The EIA reported a +58 bcf injection for the week ending September 21st, the number was -6 bcf below our estimate and -9 bcf below the Bloomberg median. The region that led to most of our flow model’s miss was the Northeast. We were taken aback Monday when both TCO and Dominion systems reported much lower system injections than we expected. While we did factor in the direct impact of these lower injections on TCO and Dominion systems, the rippling effect of the OFOs and restrictions that.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| September 21, 2017
September 21, 2017
The EIA reported a 97 bcf injection for the week ending September 14th, the number was 4 bcf above our estimate and 5 bcf above the Bloomberg median. While our model was spot on for the Midwest, Pacific and Mountain regions, it overestimated the injection in the East and underestimated it in the South Central. In the East, injections fell back into the five-year range after very strong builds during the prior two weeks. The South Central continued to add inventory at a rapid pace in salt cav.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| September 14, 2017
September 14, 2017
The EIA reported a 91 bcf injection for the week ending September 7th, the number was 2 bcf above our estimate and 6 bcf above the Bloomberg median. The two regions that varied the most from our estimates were the South Central and West: our model overestimated injections in the South Central and we were surprised by the lack of withdrawals in the West (despite strong gas demand in electric generation). What appears to be the case is that California, in lieu of using its own storage (which i.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| September 07, 2017
September 7, 2017
Please note our extended U.S. and Canada tables covering the injection season are included in the attachment. The EIA reported a 65 bcf injection for the week ending August 31st. The number was 1 bcf above our estimate and in line with the Bloomberg median. The biggest differences between our estimate and the reported EIA numbers came in the Midwest and South Central, with our model over-predicting the injection in the South Central and under-predicting the injection in the Midwest. Sinc.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| August 31, 2017
August 31, 2017
The EIA reported a 30 bcf injection for the week ending August 24th. The number was 1 bcf below our estimate and in line with the Bloomberg median. While our total estimate was close to the EIA reported number, there were some unexpected regional differences in the Mountain and South Central. In the South Central, we likely underestimated demand impacts ahead of the Hurricane (both in the power and RCI sectors) and overestimated supply impacts (due to shut-ins), leading our South Central.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| August 24, 2017
August 24, 2017
The EIA reported a 43 bcf injection for the week ending August 17th. The number was 2 bcf below our estimate and 3 bcf below the Bloomberg median. The largest regional difference this week was in the South Central again, where our prediction was 4 bcf weaker than the actual reported withdrawal. While we factored in the increase in ERCOT non-wind/non-nuclear demand, the magnitude could have been stronger than expected leading to the stronger withdrawal. On the other hand, our model’s consis.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| August 17, 2017
August 17, 2017
The EIA reported a +53 bcf injection for the week ending August 10th. The number was 5 bcf below both our estimate and the Bloomberg median. This week had a downward revision to working gas storage in South Central salt caverns between the periods June 29th to August 3rd, 2017. The majority of the revision was to June 29th inventories, which were revised down -10 bcf (closer to what our model had forecast for that week). In terms of actual inventory levels this puts us at 3,082 bcf, suggesting.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| August 10, 2017
August 10, 2017
The EIA reported a +28 bcf injection for the week ending August 3rd. The number was -8 below our estimate and -9 bcf below the Bloomberg median. This week the storage number surprised us in the South Central and Pacific regions. In the South Central our flow model predicted much weaker withdrawals than what actually materialized. If we use a regional supply/demand approach to infer the storage withdrawals we can see power demand was stronger than expected due to high ERCOT non-wind/non-nuc.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| August 03, 2017
August 3, 2017
The EIA reported a 20 bcf injection for the week ending July 27th. The number matched our estimate and was 1 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median. After our flow model’s large miss last week, specifically in the South Central, we spent time investigating power generation levels in the region. A large part of last week’s miss was the combination of the sustained heat and high non-nuclear, non-wind power generation in the ERCOT , leading to much stronger pulls than our flow model predicted. T.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| July 27, 2017
July 27, 2017
The EIA reported a 17 bcf injection for the week ending July 20th. The number was 7 bcf lower than both our flow model and the Bloomberg median. This week our model ran into difficulties estimating the South Central and the Midwest regions, together the regions accounted for 5 bcf and 3 bcf of the error, respectively. In both these regions we rely on regressions to supplement our model (due to the lack of visibility on the intrastate pipelines in the regions). What caused the error in our re.....